Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A Seasonal forecaster I know said this coming cold spell is one of the biggest week 3 busts we've seen...on the colder side.

Interesting battle between climatology vs the pseudo-deterministic ensemble means of really all them.   D10 off this 12z EPS for example, ... winter enthusiasts would be hard pressed to find a better construct for delivering the good, and doing so now officially entering the annual solar min months as of today.  

Climo still lurks... namely the lag typically claims November in head and heart aches as we know.

It's that flow against SE/'Nina' residue - which ...  this autumn is also placating my personal argument space ( frankly) in that the ENSO autumn is a vastly over rated aspect.  Leave it at that.. 

If this were DJF with that look and it didn't produce ... nothing will.   November has weasel out room though.  We'll see if it squirms or delivers.

image.png.1dfc1c3a1fa3448ef14b8703a7ae3908.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn for most 

Good luck . You had no wind and flooding rain as of yesterday. Instead most folks get HWW criteria . Nikky is strengthening rapidly tonight heading for a strong cat 2 LF. As she moves North and phases with trough over Midwest it’s Katy bat the door on wind gusts with dews in mid -upper 60’s. Models will always underestimate wind in rapid bombogenesis like we will see until about 24 hours out. And when as we see models ramp up next few days.. Mets still won’t buy it 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting battle between climatology vs the pseudo-deterministic ensemble means of really all them.   D10 off this 12z EPS for example, ... winter enthusiasts would be hard pressed to find a better construct for delivering the good, and doing so now officially entering the annual solar min months as of today.  

Climo still lurks... namely the lag typically claims November in head and heart aches as we know.

It's that flow against SE/'Nina' residue - which ...  this autumn is also placating my personal argument space ( frankly) in that the ENSO autumn is a vastly over rated aspect.  Leave it at that.. 

If this were DJF with that look and it didn't produce ... nothing will.   November has weasel out room though.  We'll see if it squirms or delivers.

image.png.1dfc1c3a1fa3448ef14b8703a7ae3908.png

I won’t feel too bad, if nothing exciting happens. It’s November so I don’t expect much. I do think at least the interior and NNE see something over the next two weeks though. I actually feel pretty good about that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It actually is a classic . Or at least will be once models resolve

This isn’t necessarily geared towards you in particular, but that line of thought has to be one of the more classic weather weenie plays to run :lol:… “this one is gonna be real exciting… the models don’t know it yet, but it will be. Trust me.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...