Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: A Seasonal forecaster I know said this coming cold spell is one of the biggest week 3 busts we've seen...on the colder side. Interesting battle between climatology vs the pseudo-deterministic ensemble means of really all them. D10 off this 12z EPS for example, ... winter enthusiasts would be hard pressed to find a better construct for delivering the good, and doing so now officially entering the annual solar min months as of today. Climo still lurks... namely the lag typically claims November in head and heart aches as we know. It's that flow against SE/'Nina' residue - which ... this autumn is also placating my personal argument space ( frankly) in that the ENSO autumn is a vastly over rated aspect. Leave it at that.. If this were DJF with that look and it didn't produce ... nothing will. November has weasel out room though. We'll see if it squirms or delivers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yawn for most Good luck . You had no wind and flooding rain as of yesterday. Instead most folks get HWW criteria . Nikky is strengthening rapidly tonight heading for a strong cat 2 LF. As she moves North and phases with trough over Midwest it’s Katy bat the door on wind gusts with dews in mid -upper 60’s. Models will always underestimate wind in rapid bombogenesis like we will see until about 24 hours out. And when as we see models ramp up next few days.. Mets still won’t buy it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck . You had no wind and flooding rain as of yesterday. Instead most folks get HWW criteria . We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Interesting battle between climatology vs the pseudo-deterministic ensemble means of really all them. D10 off this 12z EPS for example, ... winter enthusiasts would be hard pressed to find a better construct for delivering the good, and doing so now officially entering the annual solar min months as of today. Climo still lurks... namely the lag typically claims November in head and heart aches as we know. It's that flow against SE/'Nina' residue - which ... this autumn is also placating my personal argument space ( frankly) in that the ENSO autumn is a vastly over rated aspect. Leave it at that.. If this were DJF with that look and it didn't produce ... nothing will. November has weasel out room though. We'll see if it squirms or delivers. I won’t feel too bad, if nothing exciting happens. It’s November so I don’t expect much. I do think at least the interior and NNE see something over the next two weeks though. I actually feel pretty good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: See my edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: See my edit This isn’t a classic phaser. Maybe some 50+ south coast?? Meh. I mean it’s November and leaves off for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This isn’t a classic phaser. Maybe some 50+ south coast?? Meh. I mean it’s November and leaves off for many. It actually is a classic . Or at least will be once models resolve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Hmmm..Scott and Kevin locked in battle over a classic phaser, or classic dud coming up the coast. Which will it be? The next 24 hrs should tell the tale on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hmmm..Scott and Kevin locked in battle over a classic phaser, or classic dud coming up the coast. Which will it be? The next 24 hrs should tell the tale on this. It’s not a dud, but not classic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Should be a decent wind and rain producer. But that isn’t too rare in November 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Well being decent, and being a yawner are two different things. We’ve heard yawner when talking about Nicole up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hmmm..Scott and Kevin locked in battle over a classic phaser, or classic dud coming up the coast. Which will it be? The next 24 hrs should tell the tale on this. I don’t need another 24hrs. The choice is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It actually is a classic . Or at least will be once models resolve This isn’t necessarily geared towards you in particular, but that line of thought has to be one of the more classic weather weenie plays to run … “this one is gonna be real exciting… the models don’t know it yet, but it will be. Trust me.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well being decent, and being a yawner are two different things. We’ve heard yawner when talking about Nicole up here. I kind of yawn with winds below 55 or so, but maybe others don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Saw a cool meteorite cross the sky on my way home from my walk. It was as big as I’ve ever seen. Pretty colorful too. Streaks of orange and blue. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 27/21 at just after 9pm and heat cranking. Crazy just like 48 hours ago it was in the 70s. Gotta love New England temp swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Still blowing decently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I kind of yawn with winds below 55 or so, but maybe others don’t. For me anyway, 40 is certainly a yawner, but If we see winds of 50-55 that certainly won’t be a yawner for me imo. But we all have different ideas, I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Should be a decent wind and rain producer. But that isn’t too rare in November We need the drink. Notown Res looks surprisingly low still. Drove by some of the Worcester reservoirs last week and they were even lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well being decent, and being a yawner are two different things. We’ve heard yawner when talking about Nicole up here. It's a yawner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 NAM kind of wild in SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM kind of wild in SE areas NAM is always wild lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 28°/24°. Today felt brutal after my week in Florida and the weather since I came back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: 28°/24°. Today felt brutal after my week in Florida and the weather since I came back. You’re gettin soft reaves.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re gettin soft reaves.. Lol. I spent all day Saturday working on sled trails and was sweating. The wind today was pretty biting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 We had the heat on briefly, a few times the past month but tonight is the official start of wood stove season, at my house. 32/16. Gonna' be a chilly morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: NAM kind of wild in SE areas Yup, that's some on the NAM. 925 MB winds look aggressive for coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 21F. Looks like ORH is 33F… can they do it and get to freezing?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 First freeze . 31.4 as we head to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Currently at 30.....I imagine I'll dip into the 20's before all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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