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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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Multi faceted minor to moderate threat potential’s over the next 10 days to two weeks… no shortage of draws into this or related hobbies and professions. 

1 .. obviously as people are aware …”Nicole”. Does she interact and gets entangled in the events over the weekend and in what form does the cyclone take… My guess is a smear as it comes up but it will enhance the overall dynamics  along/ahead the pattern change/entry arriving through that time. 

2 .. The nature of the pattern change itself is rather extreme considering going from possibly 75 to 80° on Thursday and then struggling to make 50 on Sunday and no hope of really getting any warmer than that for the rest of the following week. In fact I would qualify that as a cryo-supporting atmosphere but since there isn’t seasonal snow on the ground over the continents north and west of us the air mass is not conserved just yet. Nonetheless thicknesses would still support so any system that does manufacture… 

3 .. I suspect the system D7-ish is real I don’t know if that’s going to affect us or not but I suspect there’s at least going to be a system formulating along the suppressed baroclinic axis W-E thru the Tennessee Valley or possibly Miller A distinction … D6 ish then a progressive system.  If it clips the area … we’re watching for first synoptic white chances. 

… seems there’s another system trying emerge closer to the 19th in negotiation. Also within the new colder circulation type…

Im incline to start a ‘low probability’ thread for the 14/15th for monitoring but I’m at work 

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29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
REMARKS...THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO
TROPICAL. 6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT WERE
UNAVAILABLE BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS SUBTROPICAL 24 HOURS AGO. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

“O. I. C.”

…all clear to me now

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45 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
REMARKS...THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO
TROPICAL. 6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT WERE
UNAVAILABLE BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS SUBTROPICAL 24 HOURS AGO. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

H to the izzo   V to the izza??

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Saw the eclipse earlier. Always neat to see.

Drove up the hill near the house at 5:30 before chasing the wily whitetail, looked to W/SW, saw clouds near the horizon while 95% of the sky was clear.  IIRC, this makes 5 straight lunar eclipses spoiled by clouds.  If that happens on April 8, 2024, I'll really be unhappy.
No deer, several fir snags toppled by last night's wind, some blocking the snomo trail thru our woodlot.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Drove up the hill near the house at 5:30 before chasing the wily whitetail, looked to W/SW, saw clouds near the horizon while 95% of the sky was clear.  IIRC, this makes 5 straight lunar eclipses spoiled by clouds.  If that happens on April 8, 2024, I'll really be unhappy.
No deer, several fir snags toppled by last night's wind, some blocking the snomo trail thru our woodlot.

Stuff strewn all over my yard this morning with frequent gust last night from the NW in the 40mph range.

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9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Mildly surprised no dedicated storm thread for Friday into Saturday yet?

6z Euro was way west and 12z GFS came west again. SE ridge is pushing the track way inland and it will phase with trough coming in from Midwest. Translated it means little rain but a lot of wind and a spinner threat 

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