HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Can we do 90? Can always adjust up for the typical torch spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Can we do 90? Right. I was so Tempted to post this…but chose to just say that mid 70’s will suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: So will it be called fake? It won't be fake if LavaRock hits <32F since I'm still waiting for a frost/freeze 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro and EPS both are trying for a cold shot around mid-month now. Might be the first freeze for the non-rad spots. FWIW, ORH latest freeze on record is 11/12 (1977 and 1916) This year has a legit shot to break that record. Shocked they haven't had one yet. Multiple frost and got down to 26 at my place so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 28 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: It won't be fake if LavaRock hits <32F since I'm still waiting for a frost/freeze You're my barometer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Shocked they haven't had one yet. Multiple frost and got down to 26 at my place so far You live in a valley or higher up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 I don’t think 80s this weekend but mid 70s at least in typical spots. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Def not fake if the non-rad spots freeze. That’s usually pretty chilly during daytime too on those airmasses. first shot at a wintry synoptic event before the 20th ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think 80s this weekend but mid 70s at least in typical spots. Exactly my point. But Definitely mid 70’s for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: first shot at a wintry synoptic event before the 20th ... Don’t be mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 At this rate I won't light my wood stove until Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Don’t be mean lol We get those occasionally… winter events, lol. But no really the times when it seems impossibly warm for so long and then a region wide snow event comes out of no where to end it in a minor torch relaxation. More likely to get that in a warm January or something, but all it takes is one trough. Be funny to have a well above normal temp November and sneak in above normal snow from a rogue event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 The avg snow for Nov here is a shade over 3" so if we see none, Its not a telltale for the remainder of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 hours ago, DavisStraight said: At this rate I won't light my wood stove until Thanksgiving. Heresy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 10 hours ago, DavisStraight said: You live in a valley or higher up? 1,030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I'm looking forward to warming up when I leave California Thursday and return to Boston. Cold standing around at my grandson's football practice about 50 miles east of Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just a torch as far as I can see Actually great weather . Not what I would want To see If I lived at elevation in NNE but I’ll take it here and enjoy it . +6/7 departures seem doable this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just a torch as far as I can see Actually great weather . Not what I would want To see If I lived at elevation in NNE but I’ll take it here and enjoy it . +6/7 departures seem doable this month Dominos start to fall by next Tuesday. Large high coming in that'll end the record high temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just a torch as far as I can see Actually great weather . Not what I would want To see If I lived at elevation in NNE but I’ll take it here and enjoy it . +6/7 departures seem doable this month ?? How far can you see? Same same? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 EPS continues to look better. Maybe Ginxy will be right! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS continues to look better. Maybe Ginxy will be right! I don't expect any massive snowstorm for us but certainly NNE will begin its winter season. Models adjust to the EPO bump everytime. Some serious cold gonna be ejected. Typical progression it seems. Hopefully sets us up for a nice storm last week of Nov first week of Dec. closer in I still am watching the home brew rainer closely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't expect any massive snowstorm for us but certainly NNE will begin its winter season. Models adjust to the EPO bump everytime. Some serious cold gonna be ejected. Typical progression it seems. Hopefully sets us up for a nice storm last week of Nov first week of Dec. closer in I still am watching the home brew rainer closely. I’ve seen a lot of EPoh-no too with cold plunging into the Plains and we cut. But the PNA is rising too. It could be a blip to and the change slows down, I haven’t noticed any steps back being taken over the last week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 My guess is + 10 first 1/3 then +3 last 2/3 of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve seen a lot of EPoh-no too with cold plunging into the Plains and we cut. But the PNA is rising too. It could be a blip to and the change slows down, I haven’t noticed any steps back being taken over the last week. Steady as she goes…we doing ok and have some gorgeous weather to enjoy and start November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve seen a lot of EPoh-no too with cold plunging into the Plains and we cut. But the PNA is rising too. It could be a blip to and the change slows down, I haven’t noticed any steps back being taken over the last week. Nah not of this magnitude. Writing on the wall for a couple of weeks now. Feeling jiggly for a 2000/2001 season flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 13 hours ago, powderfreak said: We get those occasionally… winter events, lol. But no really the times when it seems impossibly warm for so long and then a region wide snow event comes out of no where to end it in a minor torch relaxation. More likely to get that in a warm January or something, but all it takes is one trough. Be funny to have a well above normal temp November and sneak in above normal snow from a rogue event. Nov. 1989 was classic, though 3.5° AN thru the 19th doesn't scream "torch". However, 10.2° BN for the rest of the month was certainly abrupt, along with the thunderblizzard of 11/21. And Dec 1989 continued the icebox, running 13.7° BN before warming a bit on the 31st. That day ended a 43-day run of BN temps. The avg snow for Nov here is a shade over 3" so if we see none, It's not a telltale for the remainder of winter. Average for Novie here is 4.7", median 2.5". 2006 had only traces while all other years November had some measurable, topped by 23.4" in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 The western ridging over PNA region is a new development out in the extended EPS. That would make the change more abrupt after mid-month. We'll see if it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The western ridging over PNA region is a new development out in the extended EPS. That would make the change more abrupt after mid-month. We'll see if it sticks. For the audience that cares to monitor teleconnectors… folks should be aware that a negative EPO bursts lag-time in that direction; it tends to progress into a positive PNA as the natural progression, leaving the EPO more neutralized in the wake. - that’s why repetitive negative EPO oscillation is more effective at getting bitter cold air further south east because that relay becomes largely hemispheric mechanical. Speaking to the idealize models that is …obviously these things have nuances and anomalies in behavior along the way too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 So yeah it’s easier to do bigger warm extremes after October because of the nature of Earth seasonality and the sun and all that … Still, I don’t recall ever seeing a D5 product throw out a +22 like the 00z MEX Mind you… These numbers are modulated more more so out in time by climatology so you know you’re getting a high-Fi signal in order to overcoming climate and still push that number that high. That was always a conventional wisdom. I don’t know if the MOS is still “complicated” that way. Either way … it is what is. Meanwhile the Nam is utterly clueless about what’s going on here; definitely exposes that model as not having the proper heating parameters in the boundary layer which maybe integrates into its fucked upness overall. Regardless…. It really should be parameterize properly regardless of the time of the year. 60 at BED on Saturday. Okay … anyway the max 74 on Sunday for both Fitchburg and Bedford sorry Nashua… probably flirts with 80 ..81 provided the models right about the other parameters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the audience that cares to monitor teleconnectors… folks should be aware that a negative EPO bursts lag-time in that direction; it tends to progress into a positive PNA as the natural progression, leaving the EPO more neutralized in the wake. - that’s why repetitive negative EPO oscillation is more effective at getting bitter cold air further south east because that relay becomes largely hemispheric mechanical. Speaking to the idealize models that is …obviously these things have nuances and anomalies in behavior along the way too Yeah when the EPO block "Folds over" itself, the next upstream trough tends to rejuvenate it in the PNA domain or at least closer to the PNA domain....you can kind of see it when we loop the EPS from about day 7 through D12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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