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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is a weird look on the euro day 6 through 10. Exceptionally top-heavy negative -EPO/-PNA

Bit of split flow developing around D10 too. That sometimes gets interesting since it de-emphasizes geopotential height compression which you are well aware of. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bit of split flow developing around D10 too. That sometimes gets interesting since it de-emphasizes geopotential height compression which you are well aware of. 

Yeah I noticed the split.  

Anyway the euros been kind of volatile in that time range.  I think this run is just another peregrination along the journey towards whatever is actually going to happen… But I do think whatever is going to happen is going to feature that negative EPO. And the Canadian shield’s gonna have to answer to it in terms of being cold - how much so …again is it seasonally cold, or usually anomalous? I don’t know exactly. But either way gives us a standby status we don’t need to be exceptionally cold once we get past November 15 or whatever.  

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The ensemble means of all the models have been actually more encouraging than the operational versions for winter enthusiasts.  a very nice scaffolding over our side of the hemisphere… 

So long as that is the case… we can bide time with the operational versions. Sometimes you can go in and out of a pattern like that and have nothing happen but more often something emerges eventually.  
 

 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I noticed the split.  

Anyway the euros been kind of volatile in that time range.  I think this run is just another peregrination along the journey towards whatever is actually going to happen… But I do think whatever is going to happen is going to feature that negative EPO. And the Canadian shield’s gonna have to answer to it in terms of being cold - how much so …again is it seasonally cold, or usually anomalous? I don’t know exactly. But either way gives us a standby status we don’t need to be exceptionally cold once we get past November 15 or whatever.  

I’d say it’s pretty damned cold on the EPS given the ensemble lead time. We’ll see how much this changes as we get closer but D10-15 ensemble mean anomalies of that magnitude are not super common. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

AK blocking shifted quite a bit eastward too on this run. Could be a blip....but I'll take a step forward vs any step backwards.

I do think the -EPO is legit. big cold dump looks likely and the odds of you guys seeing some kind of wintry precip are good, especially towards NNE

we should see a relaxation around Thanksgiving as the ensembles have been showing due to a -EAMT developing around the 15th... would lead to a Pacific jet retraction over the next several days

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however, ensembles are then showing a descending Siberian HP that would then spark another +EAMT late in the month, encouraging another jet extension and subsequent Aleutian low/-EPO look around the first week of December

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it's easier to see this occur with the 200mb jet... extension leads to the poleward ridging, then a relaxation due to retraction, and then you can see the Pacific jet strengthen in response to the +EAMT... would extend again over the next few days

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Can anyone recall a fall in SNE where leaf drop was done by Nov 5 like this year? I mean there’s one more minor cleanup and it’s over. Usually goes well into Tgiving . And it’s been a mild fall overall 

seems ahead of schedule here too. I raked/leaf blowed this wknd and I'm done. Seems about 2wks early. The oaks tend to hold on longer, but we have had some windy days of late, so maybe that explains it.

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