HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 This has certainly been a special stretch of weather. I wonder how many have used their AC this week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 That is a weird look on the euro day 6 through 10. Exceptionally top-heavy negative -EPO/-PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Euro/CMC/Icon all look much faster than GFS for Saturday...Hope they are right and we can salvage most of Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I thought was 80? Looks like 83. Had an 81 in 1974 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I bet lots of Norways. Those are still green in FIT lol. Hardy tree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This has certainly been a special stretch of weather. I wonder how many have used their AC this week? Wish I didn't uninstall back in mid Sept. I wonder if @Damage In Tollanduninstalled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That is a weird look on the euro day 6 through 10. Exceptionally top-heavy negative -EPO/-PNA Bit of split flow developing around D10 too. That sometimes gets interesting since it de-emphasizes geopotential height compression which you are well aware of. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 EPS definitely says 16-20 has some chances. Not out past 20th yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like 83. Had an 81 in 1974 as well. Trivia: They hit 98 on 6/27/66. NYC reached triples 4 times that summer, tying 1953 for the most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BDR, PWM, BTV… where else so far? Islip, LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS definitely says 16-20 has some chances. Not out past 20th yet. We wait..we hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS definitely says 16-20 has some chances. Not out past 20th yet. Yeah hard to see how at least NNE doesn’t get something out of that pattern. That’s a really cold look 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Wish I didn't uninstall back in mid Sept. I wonder if @Damage In Tollanduninstalled yet. I never uninstall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Legit winter like pattern setting up by next week. Hard to believe after this warm stretch. My AC has been on since yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Bit of split flow developing around D10 too. That sometimes gets interesting since it de-emphasizes geopotential height compression which you are well aware of. Yeah I noticed the split. Anyway the euros been kind of volatile in that time range. I think this run is just another peregrination along the journey towards whatever is actually going to happen… But I do think whatever is going to happen is going to feature that negative EPO. And the Canadian shield’s gonna have to answer to it in terms of being cold - how much so …again is it seasonally cold, or usually anomalous? I don’t know exactly. But either way gives us a standby status we don’t need to be exceptionally cold once we get past November 15 or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Order to cash in on a winter storm I mean… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah hard to see how at least NNE doesn’t get something out of that pattern. That’s a really cold look AK blocking shifted quite a bit eastward too on this run. Could be a blip....but I'll take a step forward vs any step backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The ensemble means of all the models have been actually more encouraging than the operational versions for winter enthusiasts. a very nice scaffolding over our side of the hemisphere… So long as that is the case… we can bide time with the operational versions. Sometimes you can go in and out of a pattern like that and have nothing happen but more often something emerges eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I noticed the split. Anyway the euros been kind of volatile in that time range. I think this run is just another peregrination along the journey towards whatever is actually going to happen… But I do think whatever is going to happen is going to feature that negative EPO. And the Canadian shield’s gonna have to answer to it in terms of being cold - how much so …again is it seasonally cold, or usually anomalous? I don’t know exactly. But either way gives us a standby status we don’t need to be exceptionally cold once we get past November 15 or whatever. I’d say it’s pretty damned cold on the EPS given the ensemble lead time. We’ll see how much this changes as we get closer but D10-15 ensemble mean anomalies of that magnitude are not super common. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: AK blocking shifted quite a bit eastward too on this run. Could be a blip....but I'll take a step forward vs any step backwards. I do think the -EPO is legit. big cold dump looks likely and the odds of you guys seeing some kind of wintry precip are good, especially towards NNE we should see a relaxation around Thanksgiving as the ensembles have been showing due to a -EAMT developing around the 15th... would lead to a Pacific jet retraction over the next several days however, ensembles are then showing a descending Siberian HP that would then spark another +EAMT late in the month, encouraging another jet extension and subsequent Aleutian low/-EPO look around the first week of December it's easier to see this occur with the 200mb jet... extension leads to the poleward ridging, then a relaxation due to retraction, and then you can see the Pacific jet strengthen in response to the +EAMT... would extend again over the next few days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 35 minutes ago, ice1972 said: I never uninstall I have central but haven't touched it, house has been pretty cool after letting night air in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 any early thoughts on Nicole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Wednesday- Friday look seasonably nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Driving north, (I'm the passenger). We have had the ac on the whole ride. Just crossed back into NH. Nice to get back into the cool air. Down to 72F now. Catching up in the forums. Nice to see more interesting weather coming up. Nicole/ front then cold air lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 72 here now as well. We drop. Dews in 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 68F dews at HYA. WTF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: And zero snow to show for it other than LES and upslope fake stuff Yeah... Way to early and not concerned at all about no show Snows. If we get it between now and mid December... It would only be a bonus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Can anyone recall a fall in SNE where leaf drop was done by Nov 5 like this year? I mean there’s one more minor cleanup and it’s over. Usually goes well into Tgiving . And it’s been a mild fall overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Can anyone recall a fall in SNE where leaf drop was done by Nov 5 like this year? I mean there’s one more minor cleanup and it’s over. Usually goes well into Tgiving . And it’s been a mild fall overall seems ahead of schedule here too. I raked/leaf blowed this wknd and I'm done. Seems about 2wks early. The oaks tend to hold on longer, but we have had some windy days of late, so maybe that explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can anyone recall a fall in SNE where leaf drop was done by Nov 5 like this year? I mean there’s one more minor cleanup and it’s over. Usually goes well into Tgiving . And it’s been a mild fall overall We still have oaks to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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