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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Are you saying we go way above from thanksgiving to 12/5-10 or a mild up to normal or a bit above?   I see the potential of the latter but not the former.  And that’s not a sure bet either.  Sustained cold for a month is really hard this early.

Not warm like we’ve had now.. but a mild regime that favors 40’s/ 50’s with cutters when storms threaten 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not warm like we’ve had now.. but a mild regime that favors 40’s/ 50’s with cutters when storms threaten 

What are the average highs Thanksgiving into early Dec?  What you describe sounds normal to be honest.

Looks like even 1,000ft in ORH has an average high in the 40s on Dec 1st? 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes exactly not warm like now , but not a wintry hard flip regime change . Hopefully those calling for that are correct. I am hoping they are 

Ah gotcha, I thought you were implying above normal temps again.  I misinterpreted “mild.”

You really mean just normal early Dec temps and not going straight into well below normal, constant winter weather, sub-freezing, fare.

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31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

66 here currently, One more day…enjoy it.  It has been nice. 

It’s been a great stretch but Mid 50s is still decent though. We prefer cold and stormy patterns DJF. 

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If we can get that Aleutian ridge more poleward as it retros back from AK then we have a shot. But we’ll need that because otherwise we risk cutters and a crappy pattern for a time. 
I think we may flip back to something more favorable after 12/10…but that’s more Miss Cleo voodoo too. 

Cawl me now…

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ah gotcha, I thought you were implying above normal temps again.  I misinterpreted “mild.”

You really mean just normal early Dec temps and not going straight into well below normal, constant winter weather, sub-freezing, fare.

Yeah avg high at ORH on Dec 1 is 41F. Prob mid 40s lower elevations. If he’s expecting/hoping consistent 20s, that won’t happen unless you get something like 1989. 

Pretty hard to get -15 daily departures for more than 7-10 days at a time. 
 

 

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