November 2022 OBS/DISC

[powderfreak]

Up at the picnic tables now, shorts and t-shirt.

Near 60F, another record high (maybe the 3-4th this week?).  Hair dryer south wind.  Hope everyone is enjoying it outside.

Hard to make snow right now.  

[bwt3650]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been cautioning same thing . This is a short lived pattern change . Not some pattern that will allow for winter threats for weeks 

From a NNE Mountain perspective though, the timing was key.  Flip the 15th for 10-15 days and you can get snowmaking cranking with good windows and barring what we have right now, that puts you into the time period where above normal doesn't kill you as long as it's not a torch.  Flip on the 25th-5th, and you are way behind to start the season. Warm start to November and flip mid month is heaven.  Enjoy the mild outside, then flip hard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Weenie tip to Steve. Many times the pattern change is rushed but it appears to be working out. But I do caution that it may revert back later in November to a point. Obviously not like now lol.

I'd honestly rather take my chances with somewhat of a reversion back. 

[bwt3650]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up at the picnic tables now, shorts and t-shirt.

Near 60F, another record high (maybe the 3-4th this week?).  Hair dryer south wind.  Hope everyone is enjoying it outside.

Hard to make snow right now.  

Mid December 2015 throwback pic?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

From a NNE Mountain perspective though, the timing was key.  Flip the 15th for 10-15 days and you can get snowmaking cranking with good windows and barring what we have right now, that puts you into the time period where above normal doesn't kill you as long as it's not a torch.  Flip on the 25th-5th, and you are way behind to start the season. Warm start to November and flip mid month is heaven.  Enjoy the mild outside, then flip hard.

Let’s hope it’s correct . The one worry is that models start warming/ looking less wintry as we get closer. Many times we see that . Hopefully this time is different and deep winter kicks in for 6-10 days before rewarmth 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Mid December 2015 throwback pic?

A lot of the records MVL is beating are Nov 2006… another banner start to a winter.

Neither of those years though had even a prayer on the long range, so we can avoid that at least, ha.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not with the trough out west and -PNA like long range guidance is bringing back 

Last week you were saying no change and wire to wire warmth....

[Lava Rock]

Summer like shower rolling through

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[powderfreak]

Everyone wins.

[wxeyeNH]

Caribou Maine hits 70F yet again.   

  

[ineedsnow]

day 10 Euro 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

day 10 Euro 

Yeah that’s a decent look. It’s been on guidance for a couple days now. Tip and I have discussed it a bit. That general pattern in the 11/16-11/20 range is favorable as far as November threats go. 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

day 10 Euro 

Looks like a nice cold rain. 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a nice cold rain. 

Good. We need the rain. 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a nice cold rain. 

 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not with the trough out west and -PNA like long range guidance is bringing back 

I’d take this look all winter tbh...

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’d take this look all winter tbh...

 

 

SWFE type pattern there. 

[Lava Rock]

Unreal how mild it is. Hanging out down on sebago

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[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

I saw those pretty maps.
If you look at 925, it’s borderline already with south winds. Maybe starts snow. 
It’s clown range so doesn’t matter. At least that timeframe has been on the table. 

[Lava Rock]

One more

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[weathafella]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SWFE type pattern there. 

Exactly-2007-08/2008-09 style!

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a nice cold rain. 

Yeah, but you know if he can’t have snow, he wants it dark, wet and miserable. Just like Mitch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah ..he's right. That system is a needle threader - probably half -assed commits to secondary but not enough, and a primary that cuts White Plains NY to Portland ME.   Marginal systems before Thanks Givings tend to end wetter/cat pawing. But could begin white...  cold Novie rain!

The main aspect for me though is not whether it snows - that is a bona fide synoptic winter event,whether it cuts just W like that or somehow threads under our latitude, or not.  The advent is significant, particularly considering (at that time) the cold layout over the Canadian shield - not hugely anomalously deep, but a lot of integrated mass.  Additionally, the ens mean and oper. versions of GFS/Euro are hefty with yet another -EPO pulsation up there... these are indicative. The correction vectors are pointed colder, not warmer for a change. 

I find it interesting ...this is a full/whole scale pattern change, which appears to be stable ...with west coast of N/A extending around to western Europe ending up in a stable planetary wave length scheme between D6-10 (ending) at mid latitudes... The Pacific also appears well behaved, with not a lot of suggestive/extrapolation toward changing the feed into the Alaskan sector heights.  

Unsure about transience ... It's been a long while since we early performed winter season - but that stability argues at least some longevity - I mean not merely one event amid a cold snap.   *IF* these observations in guidance fail to actually materialize, yes. Otherwise? this is probably prologue to an early performing winter.  I'd lean that way due to several more out-of-box telecons...ranging from QBO to solar to volcanism to NINA's tending to perform early... This is a spectrum of interesting convergence in telecons.  Any one of which is likely meaningless, but en masse?  - might just be a reason why this has materialized.

[Torch Tiger]

72.1 

[powderfreak]

Got down to 61F at 5:30pm… then the wind blew and it’s back to 70F at 6:30pm .

[Damage In Tolland]

So who here thinks we are in for a total pattern change starting mid month into mid Dec with winter threats every week and BN?Is there anyone besides me that sees a 7-10 chilly period with a thread the needle type scenario until it warms again Tgiving week into Dec 5-10 period?

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So who here thinks we are in for a total pattern change starting mid month into mid Dec with winter threats every week and BN?Is there anyone besides me that sees a 7-10 chilly period with a thread the needle type scenario until it warms again Tgiving week into Dec 5-10 period?

Are you saying we go way above from thanksgiving to 12/5-10 or a mild up to normal or a bit above?   I see the potential of the latter but not the former.  And that’s not a sure bet either.  Sustained cold for a month is really hard this early.

[512high]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So who here thinks we are in for a total pattern change starting mid month into mid Dec with winter threats every week and BN?Is there anyone besides me that sees a 7-10 chilly period with a thread the needle type scenario until it warms again Tgiving week into Dec 5-10 period?

Good question, after the past few or more years I don't know what to except , pattern change yes, for how long? I will go on the limb and say snow will be on the ground for xmas in my area(hoping).

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ..he's right. That system is a needle threader - probably half -assed commits to secondary but not enough, and a primary that cuts White Plains NY to Portland ME.   Marginal systems before Thanks Givings tend to end wetter/cat pawing. But could begin white...  cold Novie rain!

The main aspect for me though is not whether it snows - that is a bona fide synoptic winter event,whether it cuts just W like that or somehow threads under our latitude, or not.  The advent is significant, particularly considering (at that time) the cold layout over the Canadian shield - not hugely anomalously deep, but a lot of integrated mass.  Additionally, the ens mean and oper. versions of GFS/Euro are hefty with yet another -EPO pulsation up there... these are indicative. The correction vectors are pointed colder, not warmer for a change. 

I find it interesting ...this is a full/whole scale pattern change, which appears to be stable ...with west coast of N/A extending around to western Europe ending up in a stable planetary wave length scheme between D6-10 (ending) at mid latitudes... The Pacific also appears well behaved, with not a lot of suggestive/extrapolation toward changing the feed into the Alaskan sector heights.  

Unsure about transience ... It's been a long while since we early performed winter season - but that stability argues at least some longevity - I mean not merely one event amid a cold snap.   *IF* these observations in guidance fail to actually materialize, yes. Otherwise? this is probably prologue to an early performing winter.  I'd lean that way due to several more out-of-box telecons...ranging from QBO to solar to volcanism to NINA's tending to perform early... This is a spectrum of interesting convergence in telecons.  Any one of which is likely meaningless, but en masse?  - might just be a reason why this has materialized.

Great post.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Are you saying we go way above from thanksgiving to 12/5-10 or a mild up to normal or a bit above?   I see the potential of the latter but not the former.  And that’s not a sure bet either.  Sustained cold for a month is really hard this early.

If we can get that Aleutian ridge more poleward as it retros back from AK then we have a shot. But we’ll need that because otherwise we risk cutters and a crappy pattern for a time. 
I think we may flip back to something more favorable after 12/10…but that’s more Miss Cleo voodoo too.