November 2022 OBS/DISC

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Tip, you should do a fiction book on climate change with the end being humans being wiped and out and whatever comes out the other end, your imagination is better than mine.

He can take over where James left off. 

[tamarack]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There are two answers that apply to this.   

1    Yes  ...how?  it's mathematically proven that warm air holds more water vapor.   As the planetary atmosphere has warmed over the last 30 years, vapor content has been measured to be more.  That's proving the math prediction.  But that is interesting in the vicinity of mechanisms that cause precipitation.  Snow and rain results get heavier.  And that is true in winter too - one has to understand, that winter storm snowfall is happening because there is an injection from a warm/humid source.  If that source has more water, it will snow more. Viola! bigger winters/ storms.  

2    climate change is not happening along a linear trajectory.  What that means is... it's been accelerating. Crude model: if you have 2 heat waves during year one, you'll get 4 during year five ... 8 during year 10.   That's just an example, mind you, of the acceleration.   In real life, it is what ever it is, but it is not linear.  That acceleration, makes it bad for a lot of obvious reasons.  1970s do not apply, because it's apples and oranges due to the being prior to a lot of the curved upward trajectory. 

 

The bolded should be true for New England and points north.  For the MA the warming climate may change SN with 1.5" LE at 30° to RA/Mix with 2" LE at 34.  Also, I've read consistently that wx will be more variable, so we get a frigid February in 2015 and SNE temps approaching in February just 3 years later.

[bwt3650]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup it’s the phrasing of it.

If someone is like “hey, all these warm records seem to be a good indication that we are in a warming period of our natural environmental system” people do not respond the same as if it’s said otherwise.

That evokes a different reaction than the phrase “climate change.”  Which has this insinuation that we need to take action.

Even in your post it brought about the word “ugly”… it’s such a loaded phrase .  Nothing ugly about today.

Call it a global warm period, lol.

honestly, couldn't time this any better.  plus 20 when the averages are in the 50s, then flip the switch November 15th for a solid ten day minus period to blow the mountains open, then you're almost into a period where you don't need frigid below normal to get it done in NNE. We should be good til  the December 23rd rainstorm.  From a ski perspective, we lost 2 -3 weeks of 400 foot vertical.  The novelty of Oct-Early Nov skiing is cool, but how many runs down rime and reason or cascade at Mt. Snow can you do.  Give me a solid December and the ability to watch my kids last soccer game today in shorts and I'll sign up every year.

[CoastalWx]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some forum members will tell you to instead leave it on in your garage and they’ll come over to inhale if it’s in the 70s again next weekend .

Ha yep.

[Damage In Tolland]

Did 12z ensembles lose the snower?

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

honestly, couldn't time this any better.  plus 20 when the averages are in the 50s, then flip the switch November 15th for a solid ten day minus period to blow the mountains open, then you're almost into a period where you don't need frigid below normal to get it done in NNE. We should be good til  the December 23rd rainstorm.  From a ski perspective, we lost 2 -3 weeks of 400 foot vertical.  The novelty of Oct-Early Nov skiing is cool, but how many runs down rime and reason or cascade at Mt. Snow can you do.  Give me a solid December and the ability to watch my kids last soccer game today in shorts and I'll sign up every year.

Give us pow Dec 1 till April 1.

Every year I like frigid cold less and less though.  Just give me 32F for 4 months lol.

Going forward, we’ll have to watch if this initial cold shot is really more of a 72 hour blast of good snowmaking but then we turn it off again for a bit.  Again I’m always more conservative this time of year, Mtn Ops doesn’t want rosy glasses outlooks right now and it definitely leans me to throwing caution flags. I’m more looking for what can go wrong than what can go right, which is tough for me as that’s not my personality haha.

[BrianW]

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
330 PM Update:

An unseasonably warm and humid afternoon continues across Southern
New England. This is associated with an anomalously strong mid/upper
ridge near 590 dm positioned over the western Atlc and southerly
surface/low level flow. Despite some clouds and southerly breezes,
many areas have reached into the lower to mid 70s (around 70
Cape/Islands), with a few spot upper 70s also popping up! BDL has
already set its daily record for today at 77 degrees, and PVD tied
its record for the date at 75 degrees. Dewpoints are quite high for
early November, in the lower 60s which are about 4-6 degrees warmer
than the normal high temps for early November!

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not masquerading anything Tip. And I couldn’t care less if you believe one way or another. You have the right to believe as you wish. And so do I.
 

This could just very well be a warm period that happens every 3 or 4 hundred years, or every 3 or 4 thousand years. See, we just don’t know if that is what it is, because we only have a measly 150 years or so worth of records.  and that’s my whole point. May not be anything more than a periodic spike that happens in the vast long scheme of things…nobody really knows if this is the case, cuz we’ve only been keeping track for such a short blip of time. 
 

Again, I really don’t care. It’s does not worry me one bit. I’m not masquerading anything. I’m not denying anything…I just don’t think we have enough info during our short time of record keeping to be sure of anything.  That’s my take on this. And I will not discuss it any further, because it just doesn’t matter much to me what it is. 
 

It’s gorgeous out. It’s gonna get much cooler soon, and it’s going to snow this winter, oh and it’s going to get cold too. All is right with the world. That’s good enough for me.
 

Now Let’s carry on with the more important things. 

Calm down...   I was speaking to the denier space - not you specifically.  The deniers masquerade as skepticism but are nothing more than denying truth and reality.  

I''m not not merely believing what I want though?    The beauty of science is ... .it is true whether one wants to believe it or not.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Not really a debate for here, but it's more so the fact that we've challenged or broken all time November highs in 2020 and then again in 2022. The changing frequency of anomalous heat is more noteworthy than the heat itself (at least around these parts).

Yeah it’s the frequency which changes the most. The actual high end temps haven’t really gotten hotter…high water vapor prob helps offset that some. But the frequency of warm spells has gotten higher.
 

Hard to replicate the 1930s dust bowl conditions over the CONUS with the high water vapor environment we have now and corn fields/farm land that is better managed. So getting those 110F+ bombs in places like Ohio/PA are just not gonna happen like back then when they did it a bunch of times. 
 

I will also push back on Tip’s claim somewhat about us being “insulated”. Maybe only in the summer at the high end, but from an average temperature standpoint, New England has warmed faster than almost anywhere in North America in the past 20+ years outside of the arctic regions. 

There would prob be a bunch of people in the northern plains and Rockies looking at us funny if we told them about how winters ain’t what they used to be a couple decades ago….they’ve actually gotten colder out there compared to the 80s/90s. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, that 12z Euro makes it even warmer next weekend?   Or fuggin shittin us!   I mean, the sun will do what the clouds dictate at this time of year, but that is if anything a cleaner, broader 850 mb layout...  14.5C everywhere on a W wind ... well, sometimes color coding for nursery school is apropos ...

And the funny thing is, we still are not even pushing off the mid month flip, either.  That's a cold witch's tit D8+!

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Calm down...   I was speaking to the denier space - not you specifically.  The deniers masquerade as skepticism but are nothing more than denying truth and reality.  

I''m not not merely believing what I want though?    The beauty of science is ... .it is true whether one wants to believe it or not.

I can't tell if people are actual deniers or just pretending to be.

For those actual deniers how fascinating must it be to live in a completely different reality.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I can't tell if people are actual deniers or just pretending to be.

For those actual deniers how fascinating must it be to live in a completely different reality.

Not to prolong this but I didn’t see one denier that temperatures are rising?  Even Wolfie said we are in a warming period, no?

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s the frequency which changes the most. The actual high end temps haven’t really gotten hotter…high water vapor prob helps offset that some. But the frequency of warm spells has gotten higher.
 

Hard to replicate the 1930s dust bowl conditions over the CONUS with the high water vapor environment we have now and corn fields/farm land that is better managed. So getting those 110F+ bombs in places like Ohio/PA are just not gonna happen like back then when they did it a bunch of times. 
 

I will also push back on Tip’s claim somewhat about us being “insulated”. Maybe only in the summer at the high end, but from an average temperature standpoint, New England has warmed faster than almost anywhere in North America in the past 20+ years outside of the arctic regions. 

There would prob be a bunch of people in the northern plains and Rockies looking at us funny if we told them about how winters ain’t what they used to be a couple decades ago….they’ve actually gotten colder out there compared to the 80s/90s. 

No argument actually...   I was thinking about the 'high end' aspect entirely when I said that.   I'm aware that our averages are keeping pace even exceeding some other regions. However, I feel pretty strongly that can be explained by air mass thermodynamics.

I've also mused at times in the past that nighttime lows, ...sort of like cheating us in a way lol, are the ballast of that change.  It's hard to dump enough solar energy, by day, into a 42 deg N latitude even in early July, when the DPs are over 70... I mean you said so yourself with the 1930s example..etc.  Throw in that we probably surplus cloud production and definitely collect a continent's worth of exhaust of other particulate gunk... and we end up more ozone rich with loftier night temperatures.  It just may be the way we express CC locally...  interesting.   

Also I am inclined to think some of New England's warming fast aspect might have something to do with it having more room to actually warm within.  Similar, though a vast microcosm, to what is taking place in the arctic..    But that's speculative.     

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Not to prolong this but I didn’t see one denier that temperatures are rising?  Even Wolfie said we are in a warming period, no?

Not them specifically just in general 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not to prolong this but I didn’t see one denier that temperatures are rising?  Even Wolfie said we are in a warming period, no?

I know - I just told him that I didn't think he was necessarily denying anything.  I just extended that thought a bit and apparently it was bad timing.

oops.  sorry.   

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No argument actually...   I was thinking about the 'high end' aspect entirely when I said that.   I'm aware that our averages are keeping pace even exceeding some other regions. However, I feel pretty strongly that can be explained by air mass thermodynamics.

I've also mused at times in the past that nighttime lows, ...sort of like cheating us in a way lol, are the ballast of that change.  It's hard to dump enough solar energy, by day, into a 42 deg N latitude even in early July, when the DPs are over 70... I mean you said so yourself with the 1930s example..etc.  Throw in that we probably surplus cloud production and definitely collect a continent's worth of exhaust of other particulate gunk... and we end up more ozone rich with loftier night temperatures.  It just may be the way we express CC locally...  interesting.   

Also I am inclined to think some of New England's warming fast aspect might have something to do with it having more room to actually warm within.  Similar, though a vast microcosm, to what is taking place in the arctic..    But that's speculative.     

You may be correct on this depending on the timeline. I think a lot of people are probably ignorant of how warm New England was in the late ‘40s through mid-50s. In fact, there’s a lot of sites in New England that still have their warmest year ever as 1949. At least when I checked a few short years ago. Maybe that list is smaller now, I’d have to check again. 
 

But it shows just how extreme some of the warmth was around the middle 20th century here. So when we cooled in the following few decades, we had plenty of room to come back up as the underlying forcing asserted itself. 
 

And yes, nighttime mins have warmed faster than daytime highs. That’s pretty consistent with the warming climate as higher vapor make rad cooling harder and it also makes the high-end temps more difficult to achieve (as we already discussed). 
 

I do find the temporal/spacial differences fascinating in their own right. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

rich get richer

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-111.62617496866733&lat=40.5700755492405#.Y2bdGnbMK3A

[drstuess]

75/65 for a high here. As others have mentioned, it wasn't so much the temp as it was dews that made it feel summery. Sticking to couch right now as I crack a beer in shorts.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

rich get richer

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-111.62617496866733&lat=40.5700755492405#.Y2bdGnbMK3A

Good lord.  That has more snow than some on here will see in a season in those grids.  15-27” first round before 12-20” comes early week followed by two more periods of heavy snow.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not to prolong this but I didn’t see one denier that temperatures are rising?  Even Wolfie said we are in a warming period, no?

Yes.  

My point (and my opinion), is that the climate has warmed before..and by a lot. And it has cooled before, and by alot.  The time frame we have to compare is a tiny blip of time.  This could easily go the other way 20, 30 80 yrs down the road, or 150 yrs down the road. So what some are calling CC, may be nothing more than the normal undulation of the globe/climate doing what it does over time…up down, up down over a certain period of time/certain cycle? 

 

And I don’t believe anything/storms are getting worse than it ever was, due to any warming. Bad storms happened before, they happen now, and they’ll happen in the future.  They’ll be flurries of them, then it will calm down, and that too comes and goes. 

[ineedsnow]

Lol 18z GFS trying to bring a hurricane up the coast

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol 18z GFS trying to bring a hurricane up the coast

Something looks to be there in that timeframe…interesting. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Something looks to be there in that timeframe…interesting. 

Yep on all the models 

[Ginx snewx]

41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Something looks to be there in that timeframe…interesting. 

We watch for home brew as said last week. Ridge over troubled waters..

[Lava Rock]

76.6 for the high.

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[kdxken]

Ginx train arriving right on schedule.

[klw]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

New record high for CON today. They hit 78/79. Old record was 75 in 1994.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol 18z GFS trying to bring a hurricane up the coast

I think all of us would take that over some little mixed or snow event. If it’s gonna be a torch month.. let’s cane 

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

What a fraud that clown is lol