November 2022 OBS/DISC

[WinterWolf]

11 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Congrats DC.

Not with the SE Ridge being depicted as it is…

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the 50mb vortex on the EPS splits again at day 9. That wasn’t forecasted 5 days ago. Good to see that.  It does try to congeal back again, but getting it disturbed is a good thing. 

Not often you see 300dm anomalies at d15 on ensembles….on a 5 day mean no less

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not often you see 300dm anomalies at d15 on ensembles….on a 5 day mean no less

 

No and it’s getting into the day 9-10 range so that’s good to see.

[CoastalWx]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:24 PM, jbenedet said:

We are so cooked this weekend. Light packin’. T-shirts and sweatshirts.

We 60’s.

Tell me more!!!

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Not with the SE Ridge being depicted as it is…

Stormy look 

[Typhoon Tip]

Hmm.. 

The AO is getting impressively negative, harder to ignore.  Even considering the mop-ended members at the CPC, that's a massive signal - whether the operational version does or does not reflect that mode/modality out there toward week-2 at this time or not.  Just a cursory look ..it doesn't, but the dailies in the extended have plenty of cold hydrostats spanning the Canada shield above the border, and occasional synoptic bleeds down to ORD-BOS (~). Enough to assume there's shared signal there if perhaps obscuring in the daily din of the runs.  

The EPS at D10 from what I've seen is structurally into the negative phase state above the 60th parallel on whole, but just a spatial surmise ... probably less than the GEFs?  

The overlap with the NAO is also impressive, with timing and concerted signaling way out there toward week-2. That's unusual to see all members, other than nuance differences ..., essentially exhibiting the same modality with that particular typically stochastic index. 

Short version?   polar field telecon convergence big time toward the 2nd week of Dec, and given to the neg EPO happening during the run-up time span ... these signal cold ( and likely...) stormier times.   No problem from my personal assessment.  

The PNA is also ( btw...) signaling there should be some kind of correction event ( H.A.) between ~ Dec 5 and 10. 

[MJO812]

Woof ?

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tell me more!!!

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm.. 

The AO is getting impressively negative, harder to ignore.  Even considering the mop-ended members at the CPC, that's a massive signal - whether the operational version does or does not reflect that mode/modality out there toward week-2 at this time or not.  Just a cursory look ..it doesn't, but the dailies in the extended have plenty of cold hydrostats spanning the Canada shield above the border, and occasional synoptic bleeds down to ORD-BOS (~). Enough to assume there's shared signal there if perhaps obscuring in the daily din of the runs.  

The EPS at D10 from what I've seen is structurally into the negative phase state above the 60th parallel on whole, but just a spatial surmise ... probably less than the GEFs?  

The overlap with the NAO is also impressive, with timing and concerted signaling way out there toward week-2. That's unusual to see all members, other than nuance differences ..., essentially exhibiting the same modality with that particular typically stochastic index. 

Short version?   polar field telecon convergence big time toward the 2nd week of Dec, and given to the neg EPO happening during the run-up time span ... these signal cold ( and likely...) stormier times.   No problem from my personal assessment.  

The PNA is also ( btw...) signaling there should be some kind of correction event ( H.A.) between ~ Dec 5 and 10. 

There’s been a weak signal around 12/7-8ish on ensemble guidance the last couple runs. It would make sense given that temporary PNA ridging that spikes up while at the same time we have that arctic blocking showing a small relaxation after the initial plunge. 

[Ginx snewx]

23 hours ago, dendrite said:

Not sure when the WWA was put out. I see 809a on the text. Idk what DOT uses or how long it takes them to reach decisions and respond.

Black Ice Friday was a disaster up there wow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dec 8th looks like a nice 3-6” paster to get things kicked off. 

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec 8th looks like a nice 3-6” paster to get things kicked off. 

An early season swing for the fences with amounts being thrown out 12 days in advance.  Good luck. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

An early season swing for the fences with amounts being thrown out 12 days in advance.  Good luck. 

I totally agree. That is a solid two weeks out. Never throw any numbers out that far out.

We're still trying to figure out when and if the pattern change is going to happen lol

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice event 8 years ago today 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec 8th looks like a nice 3-6” paster to get things kicked off. 

Weekend full of Beer I see 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Weekend full of Beer I see 

I just read his post and laughed.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nice event 8 years ago today 

 

By the looks of that snow, E mass was prob Rain

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

By the looks of that snow, E mass was prob Rain

That was Thanksgiving. We had I think just over 2” at the end. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was Thanksgiving. We had I think just over 2” at the end. 

Yeah.  It wasn’t a big deal.  Pretty though

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec 8th looks like a nice 3-6” paster to get things kicked off. 

Lock it!

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  It wasn’t a big deal.  Pretty though

You must’ve had 6-8” in that one? Had 6” on winter hill. I remember driving up to Killington two days later and snow was still plastered to all the trees north of Sterling. All along rt 2 from Leominster through Athol was pasted. 

[dendrite]

29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

By the looks of that snow, E mass was prob Rain

Lots of power outages up here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lots of power outages up here.

Parts of my town had no power from that.  Not sure of my total. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tell me more!!!

He's long gone...won't see him again until the mid winter thaw.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tell me more!!!

We came down to CON for Christmas shopping on the expectation of record high temps. I can’t wear my shorts, tank top and Tevas in 43° with gusty winds. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

We came down to CON for Christmas shopping on the expectation of record high temps. I can’t wear my shorts, tank top and Tevas in 43° with gusty winds. 

WTTTE....

[CoastalWx]

I was looking back at that thread and it looks like I had just a few tenths that Thanksgiving. Must be confusing it with something else.

[dryslot]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there. 

Single malt is the only way to go on scotch.

[Lava Rock]

Winds were ripping in Barlett. Took drive over the kanc. Mt wash has good wintery appeal

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[JVscotch]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Single malt is the only way to go on scotch.

Yes the best ones are.  But with how prices are, I have a couple in my collection that are well worth the value and better than a lot of single malts, especially the usual suspects sold here in the states.  Spica 29 year blended from North Star Spirits was around $115 and easily has a rating of at least 91/100 in my book. 
 

Side note in case you or anyone here who is into scotch, buying online from Europe will save you 30-50% on average plus give you way more offerings than what’s available in the U.S.  Unfortunately most of my old Netherlands spots stopped shipping here.