MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z Euro is alot colder than 0z at 240. Op runs are going to struggle with this upcoming change. Stick with the ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 12z Euro is alot colder than 0z at 240. Op runs are going to struggle with this upcoming change. Stick with the ensembles . Have you ever seen that guy that does a YouTube videos Direct Weather? I don't think he's a weather guy, he just takes the models and just posts them on there like that's what's going to happen. His latest video he showed the GFS and that there's a big warm bubble that's going to take over in December. I kind of think that's a little premature. He's very enthusiastic but everything is major, or a monster, or humongous. . I definitely get a chuckle out of his videos. But kudos for his enthusiasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Have you ever seen that guy that does a YouTube videos Direct Weather? I don't think he's a weather guy, he just takes the models and just posts them on there like that's what's going to happen. His latest video he showed the GFS and that there's a big warm bubble that's going to take over in December. I kind of think that's a little premature. He's very enthusiastic but everything is major, or a monster, or humongous. . I definitely get a chuckle out of his videos. But kudos for his enthusiasm Terrible… That’s YouTube monetization for you. I could make a good amount of money too posting the NAM for every snow threat. Model maps without context are the CNN/Fox News of weather forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Yes EWR has dropped below freezing but the concrete jungle on the outskirts has not. It looks like August here and you guys are like 2 months behind...You’re out of your mind. My backyard in nj has looked like this for a month. I’ve seen flakes already and had multiple mornings below freezing. But yeah, just like august.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Pattern change next weekend on eps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: You’re out of your mind. My backyard in nj has looked like this for a month. I’ve seen flakes already and had multiple mornings below zero. But yeah, just like august. . https://www.wpri.com/live-cams/newport-west-view/ was down in Southern RI late last week and there was plenty of foliage, can still see some on the live cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Models almost always have problems in La Niña with high latitude blocking. I remember ‘10-11 was a really bad winter for model guidance. There’s always uncertainty but the magnitude of it can change a lot depending on the pattern. There’s a lot of blocking up there forecasted to materialize in the next week and that’s going to probably cause a lot of flip flopping….like we’re seeing on the EPS today. That’s a much colder look but it’s not surprising when you have Atlantic blocking of high magnitude. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 7 hours ago, kdxken said: Forecast is for showers. Looks like more than that on radar. Guess that's why I'm not a weatherman. Next to nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Guess that's why I'm not a weatherman. Next to nothing. The air was actually quite dry....my valley location actually started raining at 33.7°. The winds finally broke through and pushed out temps up to 50° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Spanks45 said: The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those..... Our classic SWFE/overrunners tend to just be cutters or inland runners that got rejected from cutting by a strong high to our north due to confluence….models frequently don’t see that type of confluence until inside a week. What makes the NAO blocking helpful is that it makes confluence to our north more likely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 52 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: You’re out of your mind. My backyard in nj has looked like this for a month. I’ve seen flakes already and had multiple mornings below zero. But yeah, just like august. . Below 0? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Below 0?Haha..yes, I meant below freezing. His drama had me fired up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those..... A surprise...or shades of the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer Thats beer?? WTF is that? Probably looks the same coming out.... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I deleted my comment bc im not sure how the folks that treat the roads make their decisions but it’s 2022 on Black Friday and there needs to be much more common sense forecasting or at least coordinating with highway treatment. There were no advisory issued in the overnite update when it’s was clear would be minor icing bc the Qpf was too low to qualify . A advisory was issued at i think 830 after the ...issues. so i don’t know if DOT gets their info from NOAA Or private forecasts but if NOAA they seem to benefit from **another winter advisory specific to minor ice on highways** or just act of the abundance of caution book for early am commutes I can understand they're being a delay in getting treatment on the highways as it is a lot of area to cover. However advisory should have been up especially considering the holiday weekend, not that that should matter. That way if you stuff you're all wheel drive SUV into the woods off of the highway it's on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 51 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I can understand they're being a delay in getting treatment on the highways as it is a lot of area to cover. However advisory should have been up especially considering the holiday weekend, not that that should matter. That way if you stuff you're all wheel drive SUV into the woods off of the highway it's on you Same page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Nasty-looking accident about 9:40 this morning in New Sharon. Mile Hill Road (aka Rt 27) was a sheet of black ice with passenger vehicles stuck in breakdown lanes both southbound (uphill) and northbound, plus a few still making progress. A semi with box trailer going north could not stop and took the ditch, sideswiping one of the still-moving cars. Then the cab swerved across into the southbound ditch, causing the box to swing 180° and leaving the rig like it was southbound and smashing into another two vehicles. A woman from one had gotten out and had to dive to the ground to avoid being hit, the box passing above her, another such driver away from vehicle getting hit with minor injury. I think there was another minor injury and maybe a fifth vehicle involved - the Sheriff's preliminary report, though lengthy was somewhat confusing, as was the whole incident. At about the same time, a southbound vehicle that had made it up the hill had less success headed down, rolling over. Officials from the Town of Rome blocked northbound traffic on Rt 27 at the Rt 225 intersection, closing off the 7 miles between there and Rt 2. A 3rd accident near that time had a rollover off Rt 2 near the New Sharon/Farmington line. Mile Hill has a long notorious history - its north slope a full mile and changes ~300' elevation in that span. It's dead straight but with a sharp right curve (for downhill cars) 50 yards from the bottom and it's not uncommon for drivers to lose it there, either hitting the corner too fast, or if southbound, trying to get a run for the hill. I'm confident there will be additional crash reports. Currently right about the freezing mark and some occasional light dz/zr. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Nasty-looking accident about 9:40 this morning in New Sharon. Mile Hill Road (aka Rt 27) was a sheet of black ice with passenger vehicles stuck in breakdown lanes both southbound (uphill) and northbound, plus a few still making progress. A semi with box trailer going north could not stop and took the ditch, sideswiping one of the still-moving cars. Then the cab swerved across into the southbound ditch, causing the box to swing 180° and leaving the rig like it was southbound and smashing into another two vehicles. A woman from one had gotten out and had to dive to the ground to avoid being hit, the box passing above her, another such driver away from vehicle getting hit with minor injury. I think there was another minor injury and maybe a fifth vehicle involved - the Sheriff's preliminary report, though lengthy was somewhat confusing, as was the whole incident. At about the same time, a southbound vehicle that had made it up the hill had less success headed down, rolling over. Officials from the Town of Rome blocked northbound traffic on Rt 27 at the Rt 225 intersection, closing off the 7 miles between there and Rt 2. A 3rd accident near that time had a rollover off Rt 2 near the New Sharon/Farmington line. Mile Hill has a long notorious history - its north slope a full mile and changes ~300' elevation in that span. It's dead straight but with a sharp right curve (for downhill cars) 50 yards from the bottom and it's not uncommon for drivers to lose it there, either hitting the corner too fast, or if southbound, trying to get a run for the hill. I'm confident there will be additional crash reports. Currently right about the freezing mark and some occasional light dz/zr.Saw the story. I got stuck once going up that hill in sn stormSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 21 minutes ago, tamarack said: Nasty-looking accident about 9:40 this morning in New Sharon. Mile Hill Road (aka Rt 27) was a sheet of black ice with passenger vehicles stuck in breakdown lanes both southbound (uphill) and northbound, plus a few still making progress. A semi with box trailer going north could not stop and took the ditch, sideswiping one of the still-moving cars. Then the cab swerved across into the southbound ditch, causing the box to swing 180° and leaving the rig like it was southbound and smashing into another two vehicles. A woman from one had gotten out and had to dive to the ground to avoid being hit, the box passing above her, another such driver away from vehicle getting hit with minor injury. I think there was another minor injury and maybe a fifth vehicle involved - the Sheriff's preliminary report, though lengthy was somewhat confusing, as was the whole incident. At about the same time, a southbound vehicle that had made it up the hill had less success headed down, rolling over. Officials from the Town of Rome blocked northbound traffic on Rt 27 at the Rt 225 intersection, closing off the 7 miles between there and Rt 2. A 3rd accident near that time had a rollover off Rt 2 near the New Sharon/Farmington line. Mile Hill has a long notorious history - its north slope a full mile and changes ~300' elevation in that span. It's dead straight but with a sharp right curve (for downhill cars) 50 yards from the bottom and it's not uncommon for drivers to lose it there, either hitting the corner too fast, or if southbound, trying to get a run for the hill. I'm confident there will be additional crash reports. Currently right about the freezing mark and some occasional light dz/zr. Yikes. No such issues here in the tropics of SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: Thats beer?? WTF is that? Probably looks the same coming out.... Just wondering what type of beer you drink ? That is a beast mode double IPA from one of the top 10 East coast breweries. The hazier the better. My guess is you have no idea of the IPA scene and think Bud Heavies are delicious 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Love these fronts that kick through and the wind starts gusting as the CAA moves in. Such a big part of autumn and winter in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Timber 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just wondering what type of beer you drink ? That is a beast mode double IPA from one of the top 10 East coast breweries. The hazier the better. My guess is you have no idea of the IPA scene and think Bud Heavies are delicious I can't stand beer...and bud heavies just make your pants look like that IPA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 27 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I can't stand beer...and bud heavies just make your pants look like that IPA You are missing out on so much .Men drink beer . Enjoy your Truly’s bro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are missing out on so much .Men drink beer . Enjoy your Truly’s bro. LOL...Bourbon FTW 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: LOL...Bourbon FTW The hard stuff is where it’s at . Classy manly 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: LOL...Bourbon FTW Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there. I got spoiled several years back when a customer gave me a bottle of 18 year old stuff as a tip. I don't drink much, but now when I do it's got to be top shelf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Back to weather.. tomorrow looks like a great late fall day for some hiking. Was hoping to go to Mnt. Greylock but the upper road is closed already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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