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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

29° and -ZR.

If anyone is heading up here this morning be careful. The vehicles are glazed up already. I’m not sure if they’ve treated the roads this morning or if there’s any residual salt left from the snow a week or so back. 

Aww crap. We are headed down that way. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

It’s a mess. 106 and 104 closed in spots too. Dozens off the road and on their roofs. 
 

Salt the fucking roads. We do this every year with the first glazing event.

Yikes. I told my folks to go tomorrow. I wasn’t aware it was supposed to be icy there. 
I’m sure it was forecasted though. I don’t get why this happens all the time. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yikes. I told my folks to go tomorrow. I wasn’t aware it was supposed to be icy there. 
I’m sure it was forecasted though. I don’t get why this happens all the time. 

It was a thin overcast when I woke up at 4am with mid 20s. With precip moving in I knew it was going to be a problem. It’s black Friday and a ton of people are going out. They need to be more on top of this.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Why are you sure it was forecast there was no winter weather advisory to well after frozen precip hit the pavement . On back Friday that is a questionable .. forecast unless I maybe missing something 

I’m just assuming it was caught by the meteorologists. I haven’t looked at anything for two days  so I have no idea, but maybe my assumption is wrong?

If there was no advisory out, then yikes.

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Anomaly renditions also aren’t helping perceptions there I think.  I mean at least a little… Some users see ‘warm’ tones and it’s not inspiring or triggering the dopamine. Heh.

But I suspect we’re going to find more so going forward over the decades that it’s more about the geometric structure than it is about anomaly colorization pallets because thats going to be biased in the warm tones so long as it’s being compared to last century etc and CC is what it is. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just assuming it was caught by the meteorologists. I haven’t looked at anything for two days  so I have no idea, but maybe my assumption is wrong?

If there was no advisory out, then yikes.

I deleted my comment bc im not sure how the folks that treat the roads make their decisions  but it’s 2022 on Black Friday and there needs to be much more common sense forecasting or at least coordinating with highway treatment.
 

There were no advisory issued in the overnite update when it’s was clear  would be minor icing bc the Qpf was too low to qualify  . A advisory was issued at i think 830 after the ...issues.  so i don’t know if DOT gets their info from NOAA Or private forecasts but if NOAA they seem to benefit from  **another winter advisory specific to minor ice on highways** or just act of the abundance of caution book for early am commutes 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just assuming it was caught by the meteorologists. I haven’t looked at anything for two days  so I have no idea, but maybe my assumption is wrong?

If there was no advisory out, then yikes.

Not sure when the WWA was put out. I see 809a on the text. Idk what DOT uses or how long it takes them to reach decisions and respond.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern

This H5 pattern

1565C517-D9E7-4D6F-BABB-7C5E2E0AA777.thumb.png.8ac4b8728e95c3c0809986c24119426c.png

 

Produces this temperature anomaly…

B7D16A9C-71C5-4AEB-BFCE-4949A6D4762F.thumb.png.85f66291fb85802f7e393526b7d7c48f.png 

 

Anytime the PV is camped out over Hudson's Bay, SNE is good to go.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure when the WWA was put out. I see 809a on the text. Idk what DOT uses or how long it takes them to reach decisions and respond.

Early morning disco noted many had radiated into 20’s and precip was approaching and that it was worrisome but no advisory till 8.. i mean I’m sure there was little ice accumulation but umm the roads were still skating rinks from minor glaze but I mean the roads obviously needed treatment and warning flashing weather signs to alter the public on Black Friday bueller


 

Given the short duration and light
QPF...there is little ice accumulation forecast besides some
higher elevations...so no headlines are anticipated.
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53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I deleted my comment bc im not sure how the folks that treat the roads make their decisions  but it’s 2022 on Black Friday and there needs to be much more common sense forecasting or at least coordinating with highway treatment.
 

There were no advisory issued in the overnite update when it’s was clear  would be minor icing bc the Qpf was too low to qualify  . A advisory was issued at i think 830 after the ...issues.  so i don’t know if DOT gets their info from NOAA Or private forecasts but if NOAA they seem to benefit from  **another winter advisory specific to minor ice on highways** since people drive cars and it doesn’t matter if .10 or .25 accretion isn’t met to make roads unsafe and need treatment and alert public 

Just my 2 cents... I deal with some DOT crews, none in that area.  Some have private mets, not all.  I find the range of how proactive the person in charge of sending crews out is can vary from incredibly proactive (pretreating when there is even a very minimal threat) to very laid back and not wanting to pretreat or send crews out until they actually get calls of trouble from state or local police reports.  The private Mets don't make the call, the decision is always with the DOT supervisor.  I can tell you from experience that can be maddening.  No matter what the NWS issues, the call is the supervisor's to make.  I can't tell you how many times I've recommended pre-treatments and heard comments about budgets or the desire to wait until police call!  On the other hand I have clients that pre-treat at any hint of an issue.  Of course then they get calls for wasting money from the public....

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3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Just my 2 cents... I deal with some DOT crews, none in that area.  Some have private mets, not all.  I find the range of how proactive the person in charge of sending crews out is can vary from incredibly proactive (pretreating when there is even a very minimal threat) to very laid back and not wanting to pretreat or send crews out until they actually get calls of trouble from state or local police reports.  The private Mets don't make the call, the decision is always with the DOT supervisor.  I can tell you from experience that can be maddening.  No matter what the NWS issues, the call is the supervisor's to make.  I can't tell you how many times I've recommended pre-treatments and heard comments about budgets or the desire to wait until police call!  On the other hand I have clients that pre-treat at any hint of an issue.  Of course then they get calls for wasting money from the public....

Seems to make sense . I may not have articulated it well but I was more critical of DOT and what gets them moving . 

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35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems to make sense . I may not have articulated it well but I was more critical of DOT and what gets them moving . 

I agree... I'm not absolving anyone from blame... Sometimes it's a combination of issues, poor forecast decision, lack of threat awareness, or bad decision making process...  That's why I love the overly cautious DOT groups...  Obviously something was wrong with how it was handled this morning in Dendrite's area.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yikes. I told my folks to go tomorrow. I wasn’t aware it was supposed to be icy there. 
I’m sure it was forecasted though. I don’t get why this happens all the time. 

No advisory despite concern being mentioned in the middle of the night discussion at GYX.  Since you would want to give people a heads up before they walk out of the house while it’s still dark and don’t realize there’s ice everywhere.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. 

"Usually" works better for most of NNE and for the mountains and far north, an earlier date would be proper.

IP/ZR mix (mostly IP) reached here shortly before 9:30 with mid 20s, now all ZR and temp above 30 and climbing slowly.  I imagine secondary roads are messy and our 4/10-mile gravel road is probably an ice rink as it's not been treated yet.

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1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I agree... I'm not absolving anyone from blame... Sometimes it's a combination of issues, poor forecast decision, lack of threat awareness, or bad decision making process...  That's why I love the overly cautious DOT groups...  Obviously something was wrong with how it was handled this morning in Dendrite's area.

I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”. 

Which seems crazy to me because it’s the minor events that cause the most car collisions. 

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”. 

Exactly 

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