weathafella Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: The gfs has been unwavering with basically nothing through early December, though. Tick tock, there goes a good portion of winter. It shows your snow as climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Through December 9th, wow. nearly snowless Thanks for posting this!!! Hopefully your post has the same results as Stein posting 384 QPF maps a few months back. Pretty sure it didn’t rain for 6 months on those 384 hr runs. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, be sure not to torch your turkey! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: it sure doesn't seem as though the pattern change will be "complete by the 25th" What are you talking about??? At the time it was predicted temp anomalies were +20 and models (and some posters) were hesitant to break the pattern. The last 10 days we’ve gone from +20 to normal/slightly below. What part of the pattern change did you not see occur. For those that enjoy winter, seeing things return to climo is a good thing, even if it doesn’t result in violent blizzards before Thanksgiving. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Enjoy the turkey, beer, football, and climo weather! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 And remember Thanksgiving for Leon Lett! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 So it's beginning to look cyclic wrt the EPO. The ensemble means re-emerge the signal, but hold it in position, like a standing wave pattern. That telecon/mass field doesn't behave that way though. More likely the ridge collapses south into/forcing +PNA ...follows within a week either a whole-scale repeat, or the hemisphere goes a different direction ... This appears to be doing the former, with a similar -EPO signal prior to what took place bac around 7th-12th of the month. The operation GFS has some unrealistically deep cold waves gong on out there in the deep range, but I figure that for typical amplitude isolating out in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 We ridge bridge on eps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: We ridge bridge on eps. Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking. That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 2007 featured a furnace at 500mb yet nobody was complaining then. You can totally have warm anomalies at 500mb in New England. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 2007 featured a furnace at 500mb yet nobody was complaining then. You can totally have warm anomalies at 500mb in New England. Forky lives at 500. Every map he posts is 500. Odd for a Met to not understand weather. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't worry everyone at the New England forum says winter is coming After that advertised break. You may need a breather. 4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Through December 9th, wow. nearly snowless 2" by 12/9 would be fine with me...about what I would expect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS Cold will dump into the west, look for the SE ridge to link up with the higher heights over Greenland 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Cold will dump into the west, look for the SE ridge to link up with the higher heights over Greenland Troll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Courtesy of Mid Atlantic subforum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said: That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group I disagree it’s a La Niña pattern with blocking. The SE ridge that shows up in la Ninas is good for us because it prevents suppression. Even Metfan could get a lot of snow from this pattern if the models are right. The blocking will force Miller B redevelopment, which is great for our area. In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 6 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Happy Eat a Metric Shit-Ton day!!! This is America, I’ll eat an imperial shit ton thank you! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, George001 said: In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. Maybe ENE, but not all of New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 56 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Maybe ENE, but not all of New England. That's not true? I'm just west of Hartford about 12 my miles. When we get Miller B's at redevelop off the coast, we've gotten walloped, and I mean walloped. Miller A's can be amazing come but they can also draw in warm air aloft even more so. If I'm not mistaken, we've gotten some of our biggest snows from Miller B's that had redeveloped offshore. So them being only Good for Eastern New England is not a true statement or fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 So case in point. Juno in 2015 was a classic Miller b. Storm which affected New York, New Jersey and southern New England. Nemo in 2013 was also a classic Miller b storm.. which dropped the highest amount of snow in Hamden, Connecticut at 40 in. Hamden. Connecticut is not Eastern New England. Hamden Connecticut is really western New England. Those are just a few, I'm sure I can name lots more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 SE ridge doesn't bother me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Maybe ENE, but not all of New England. No question in E NE. Not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 hours ago, dryslot said: SE ridge doesn't bother me. Wouldn’t bother me too much if I were in ME. Down here, it’s more of a concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So them being only Good for Eastern New England is not a true statement or fact "In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. " No one said miller B's can't be good out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: "In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. " No one said miller B's can't be good out west Maybe ENE, but not all of New England These were your words? Am I missing something? If I am clue me in please ( seriously... Maybe I missed something ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: "In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. " No one said miller B's can't be good out west 3 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Maybe ENE, but not all of New England These were your words? Am I missing something? If I am clue me in please ( seriously... Maybe I missed something ) Fight Fight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 I'll give Forky credit. I'm unfortunately down near EWR for Thanksgiving. I don't even think they get winter here anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Forecast is for showers. Looks like more than that on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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