TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up. Yup. It’s a fine winter look in the extended. Never any guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up. I really hammered #2 in my write up...I feel like the coast may have some issues and elevation/latitude will do well in December. January is more of a regional orgy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure why people are so upset about a relaxation in a timeframe when our snow climo is garbage even in the best circumstances. People should be happy things look to be turning a corner towards the second week of December when climo chances increase Omg exactly, so much fuss over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure why people are so upset about a relaxation in a timeframe when our snow climo is garbage even in the best circumstances. People should be happy things look to be turning a corner towards the second week of December when climo chances increase Good post. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure why people are so upset about a relaxation in a timeframe when our snow climo is garbage even in the best circumstances. People should be happy things look to be turning a corner towards the second week of December when climo chances increase This times 1000!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Its over 2 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Its over I’ll bet we still score something by New Years though…keep hope alive! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Its over I'll drink to that Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’ll bet we still score something by New Years though…keep hope alive! But the op at day 14 didn’t look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But the op at day 14 didn’t look good. Truth be told the writing was on the wall day 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up. This is probably one of your top posts in forum history. It expresses exactly what I said yesterday, but you mask the worry very well . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Have we heard the popes thoughts on December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up. For point number 2 while that’s true the blocking will increase our chances especially by late December. All it takes is one storm anyways with this blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Have we heard the popes thoughts on December Yup..the geese are everywhere, and the grass is still green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 It'll snow snow when it snows. Screw the models Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 I have a nagging concern about the persistent SW trough. Let's hope we don't repeat last December with great NAO and killer RNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I’ll bet we still score something by New Years though…keep hope alive! 23 or 24? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I have a nagging concern about the persistent SW trough. Let's hope we don't repeat last December with great NAO and killer RNA. Don’t nag. You’ll get accused of whining , having a nice hiney to whup with wet noodles and towels. and having unreal expectations Heavy heavy snow coming soon to neighborhoods near all starts this weekend 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I have a nagging concern about the persistent SW trough. Let's hope we don't repeat last December with great NAO and killer RNA. The difference is, that trough last year was so anomalous it was down into Mexico …this doesn’t seem that insane at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 I have no concerns at all. But that doesn't mean I think it's going to be a great or bad winter. I just stopped giving a shit as much as I used to. Que sera. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 18z GFS and GEFS says it's going to be boring weather for the next 2+ weeks, with no cold outbreaks and no or little snow for most of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, weathafella said: Que sera. When I was a little guy, my mother would be puzzled and frustrated by my weather obsession. She would sing Que Sera to me....in her perfect Edith Bunker voice. I'm still in therapy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z GFS and GEFS says it's going to be boring weather for the next 2+ weeks, with no cold outbreaks and no or little snow for most of us. Oh the horror. But you know what they say about off hour runs/18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 This could be a new record, it’s only November 23 and this subforum is already 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t nag. You’ll get accused of whining , having a nice hiney to whup with wet noodles and towels. and having unreal expectations Heavy heavy snow coming soon to neighborhoods near all starts this weekend Optimism is wearing you down. You can’t shake it. Nobody is saying to get the snorkel ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 51 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z GFS and GEFS says it's going to be boring weather for the next 2+ weeks, with no cold outbreaks and no or little snow for most of us. Sounds like climo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sounds like climo But they keep telling us climo is changing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 55 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z GFS and GEFS says it's going to be boring weather for the next 2+ weeks, with no cold outbreaks and no or little snow for most of us. Add another 2 weeks to that .. and if that does happen .. women and children first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Time to talk about dews and lawn for 2 weeks ..as climo says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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