Baroclinic Zone Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Been a long time since I've started a new topic. Happy All Hallows Eve. November looks like a transition month as we start warm and we look forward to a pattern change mid-month to more seasonable temps. Enjoy folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Absolute torch first half. We’ll see about final 10 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Absolute torch first half. We’ll see about final 10 days or so. I like the N PAC look on EPS....good -EPO. Still -PNA but we can deal with that....esp as the wavelengths lengthen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I like the N PAC look on EPS....good -EPO. Still -PNA but we can deal with that....esp as the wavelengths lengthen. Yep, I mentioned in the other thread the EPS would work probably a couple of weeks beyond into December. This isn't a piggy or anything like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 I think the more extreme the positive anomalies are 1st half the more likely we see a greater reversal. -EPO is promising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 It looks like there is a great deal of cold which will be on this side of the hemisphere within the Arctic/polar regions so there's a decent bet we will see some impressive cold shots at times probably during the second half of the month. Could be pretty wonky though with mild/cold periods. Looks like there could be a quite a bit of wave breaking across the eastern PAC and CONUS so lots of ridge/trough scenarios. Our warm periods will probably be quite anomalous and our cold periods may be rather anomalous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 65 degrees currently…gorgeous out. Nothing wrong with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 GFS is ridiculous for the PAC NW into Vancouver. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is ridiculous for the PAC NW into Vancouver. Wow. That D9-10 setup.....They usually can't get storms that cold in mid-January out there, nevermind early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That D9-10 setup.....They usually can't get storms that cold in mid-January out there, nevermind early November. That's absurd for this time of year. Even the euro was cold there. Who knows this far out...but that's impressive. They started early last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 The Gfs model seems to really get like a harmonic feedback that amplifies onto itself over extended time…it’s like watching “galloping Gert” It seems to collect all these smaller perturbations in the atmosphere into gradually increased sizes ..,until it’s aggregated into these giant planetary wave lengths. By D10s just basically tends to an amplitude bias. I recommend that the warm spell which may actually end up fantastically so by the way… between Thursday and next Tuesday is legit. The overnight models en masse really coalesced around that synopsis …offering very little deviation or room for differing possibilities. After that? I wouldn’t trust GFS at all - not that anybody is … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the more extreme the positive anomalies are 1st half the more likely we see a greater reversal. -EPO is promising Don't be surprised if the "modeled" pattern change begins to fade within 3-4 days.. And let me add this, I'll be happy if i am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Don't be surprised if the "modeled" pattern change begins to fade within 3-4 days.. So what are you predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So what are you predicting? That any real pattern change will take longer than what is currently being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Euros starting to catch on to what I was talking about yesterday that I thought the EPO might start trending more east… Just based on experience with the models over the years and other tl;drs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 This time tomorrow I'll be in Florida where it will be well into the 80's with juicy humidity. With the Bruins on National TV tomorrow night I'm hoping I can drink margaritas in the hot tub and watch the Bruins 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 That is a monster ULJ too into the PAC NW region late this weekend. 180+ knots in the jet streak. That would have to shatter some Nov. records I would think (especially this early). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euros starting to catch on to what I was talking about yesterday that I thought the EPO might start trending more east… Just based on experience with the models over the years and other tl;trs Euro also shows some of the Scandinavian ridging retrograding into Greenland at the end of the run....if that happened, that will also help push the lower height anomalies further east toward Lakes/New England rolling forward. So it's another perturbation to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 45 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: That any real pattern change will take longer than what is currently being modeled. Fair enough… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 EPS would be pretty good I think 4-6 weeks from now. Sooner interior and up north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Torch me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: That any real pattern change will take longer than what is currently being modeled. Idk you'd be surprised how quickly things can flip when the ball gets rolling. After the 10th things should start looking better and moreso after the 15th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Hell o ween 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Torch! Mostly from the first half I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 70s this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Who will hit 80?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who will hit 80?! Ken on the golf course 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Hey if it’s gonna be warm..let’s break some records. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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