greenmtnwx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 December not looking great on ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, BrianW said: I'll give Forky credit. I'm unfortunately down near EWR for Thanksgiving. I don't even think they get winter here anymore... Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just awful. Might you be right for December Kevin??? DAMN YOU..... Lolol ( joking off course ). The models have trended away from the colder pattern switch in the East as of now. They could switch back of course, but I just don't understand ( or have to much faith in the models ) anymore. It just seems like the weather is just so volatile that the global models can never get a good handle on the long range. Anyone care to chime in on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 29° and -ZR. If anyone is heading up here this morning be careful. The vehicles are glazed up already. I’m not sure if they’ve treated the roads this morning or if there’s any residual salt left from the snow a week or so back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, BrianW said: I'll give Forky credit. I'm unfortunately down near EWR for Thanksgiving. I don't even think they get winter here anymore... Looks like two months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, BrianW said: I'll give Forky credit. I'm unfortunately down near EWR for Thanksgiving. I don't even think they get winter here anymore... My daughter goes to school outside of Philadelphia----no leaves at all on the trees down there EWR must be special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2022 Author Share Posted November 25, 2022 Balmy AM. 45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: My daughter goes to school outside of Philadelphia----no leaves at all on the trees down there EWR must be special. There still hasn't been a killing frost here.. I tried to get a fire going last night and there was like zero draft it was so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Nice looking system next Wednesday/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said: December not looking great on ensembles For who ? Gefs still looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Nice looking system next Wednesday/Thursday. Sou’easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: For who ? Gefs still looks really good Yeah GEFS squishes the SE ridge while EPS creates more of a battle ground. Difference likely that GEFS goes further into Phase 8 while EPS quickly kills the wave. Both have blocking so EPS should still be ok for SNE even northern half of Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah GEFS squishes the SE ridge while EPS creates more of a battle ground. Difference likely that GEFS goes further into Phase 8 while EPS quickly kills the wave. Both have blocking so EPS should still be ok for SNE even northern half of Jersey. December was always going to be a battleground. We just need the ridge to be tampered down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 What am I missing? Ensemble runs seem pretty consistent. Too much beer on here last night? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Sou’easter? Yeah, good wind signal along and behind front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What am I missing? Ensemble runs seem pretty consistent. Too much beer on here last night? Hungover? Looks fine to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 54 minutes ago, BrianW said: There still hasn't been a killing frost here.. I tried to get a fire going last night and there was like zero draft it was so warm. You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the Past 6 nights With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27ﾟ. It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Ensembles look fine. We have to watch next weekend for a wave riding along the front as it presses against the Southeast ridge And gets hung up. After that there's a signal for a coastal storm The week of December 5th As the G EFS pops a PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, binbisso said: Ensembles look fine. We have to watch next weekend for a wave riding along the front as it presses against the Southeast ridge And gets hung up. After that there's a signal for a coastal storm The week of December 5th As the G EFS pops a PNA ridge Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Beer 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. I think we're all a little anxious to get our 1st snowfall which is always very special. Plus we've had 9 straight days of below normal temperatures well below normal on some of those days so hate to waste the cold air. I got down to 21 here in Westchester County. Would have loved to time that with some moisture. Very early yet and a lot of good signs out there and we usually don't get our 1st snow here till after December 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Also I wonder if this LA Nina is now starting to die. Sub surface warmer temps Are growing esp region 4 and 3.4. Would love to get region 4 Close to neutral soon To help bring the forcing there And the better phase of the MJO So maybe we can avoid The ugly February LA Nina's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. Turkey hangover Too much apple cider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, binbisso said: I think we're all a little anxious to get our 1st snowfall which is always very special. Plus we've had 9 straight days of below normal temperatures well below normal on some of those days so hate to waste the cold air. I got down to 21 here in Westchester County. Would have loved to time that with some moisture. Very early yet and a lot of good signs out there and we usually don't get our 1st snow here till after December 15th Yeah I get it, but there is a reason why we don’t get much snow prior to 12/15. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern This H5 pattern Produces this temperature anomaly… 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 29° and -ZR. If anyone is heading up here this morning be careful. The vehicles are glazed up already. I’m not sure if they’ve treated the roads this morning or if there’s any residual salt left from the snow a week or so back. 93 shut down Lakes region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, binbisso said: You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the Past 6 nights With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27ﾟ. It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week I dunno. I'm in SWCT, climatologically not much different than EWR, and here's the view from my kitchen window this morning: 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. Yeah weird but looks ok to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, binbisso said: You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the Past 6 nights With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27ﾟ. It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week Yes EWR has dropped below freezing but the concrete jungle on the outskirts has not. It looks like August here and you guys are like 2 months behind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just got back to the truck, 28.6F and some off and on zr this morning in the woods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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