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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:37 PM, WinterWolf said:

That’s a lil different than what you said yesterday afternoon, when you said “the bad look is coming…it’s been modeled.”  Not trying to be a jerk or anything, Just trying to make sure I understand your reasoning that’s all. 
 

So this morning you’re not quite sure if it’s an all out torch/or hostile pattern, because it’s(longer range ensembles) waffling again? 

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It’s still not a good look. I never it’s a torch either….but the pacific does look crappy. I can’t really get specific two weeks our other than saying it looks meh. If the blocking happens then maybe we can sneak something in. If it does not happen, then we will be milder and probably rather quiet.

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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s still not a good look. I never it’s a torch either….but the pacific does look crappy. I can’t really get specific two weeks our other than saying it looks meh. If the blocking happens then maybe we can sneak something in. If it does not happen, then we will be milder and probably rather quiet.

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Ok fair enough.

Like Hub Dave said…perhaps it’s just a seasonable lol for late November/Earky December?  

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It is just absolutely dumping.

We've picked up several inches at the mountain, and looks like even out in the valley the very rare ASOS M1/4 visibility +SN.

This is true whiteout stuff.

METAR KMVL 201330Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M03/M05 A2981
METAR KMVL 201325Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M05 A2981
KMVL 201324Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M05 A2981 RMK AO2 P0000 T10331050
 
 
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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been like a decade or more since we’ve had a good start to winter here lol

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The last few years we've lost December up here, That's never good, As it really does a number on the seasonal avg that's tough to make up, Will have to wait to see how it plays out this year.

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We def were spoiled with the Decembers of the 2000s. We paid back the piper in 2010s. I feel like only 2013 and 2017 were really good…2020 was decent but that grinch storm with 100 knot winds from Cuba really put a damper on it. 
 

We’re due for a really good December. But being “due” doesn’t make it more likely. I wish it did. :lol:

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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ok fair enough.

Like Hub Dave said…perhaps it’s just a seasonable lol for late November/Earky December?  

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My guess it averages AN. But given how early it is, you’d want to have a better airmass vs what is modeled. 
 

Maybe you get lucky and sneak something in with a serviceable airmass inland as long as we have some blocking. 
 

I think people are getting a little antsy and not looking at the calendar too. It’s really early folks. 

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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

My guess it averages AN. But given how early it is, you’d want to have a better airmass vs what is modeled. 
 

Maybe you get lucky and sneak something in with a serviceable airmass inland as long as we have some blocking. 
 

I think people are getting a little antsy and not looking at the calendar too. It’s really early folks. 

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People just need to take solace in fact their snow climo in sne kinda blows  for a true weenie . Then a calming depressed emotion can settle over them. Bc many keep rooting for that Epic year every winter  and they look for a earlier start Which would help because they are not praying for average . I think that is a piece of the puzzle for some . 

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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Surprised to see GEFS so vastly different than OP for next Saturday . Ya - not a snower for Boston , and maybe it goes poof but interesting to me 

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It’s unlikely it snows in my area but I wouldn’t rule it out. 2 feet, no but I guess there’s an outside shot at a slushy foot. Hell even Metfan is still tracking the storm.

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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

My guess it averages AN. But given how early it is, you’d want to have a better airmass vs what is modeled. 
 

Maybe you get lucky and sneak something in with a serviceable airmass inland as long as we have some blocking. 
 

I think people are getting a little antsy and not looking at the calendar too. It’s really early folks. 

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There it is .. the dreaded calendar post that comes every year . It’s only December.. it’s early.. and then wait til January when it’s Climo .. and then .. well typically we get snowy in Feb… and March always has a doozy … as Tip is taking the temperature of his car seat with a reactal thermometer 

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There it is .. the dreaded calendar post that comes every year . It’s only December.. it’s early.. and then wait til January when it’s Climo .. and then .. well typically we get snowy in Feb… and March always has a doozy … as Tip is taking the temperature of his car seat with a reactal thermometer 

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It’s not even December. :facepalm:

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s not even December. :facepalm:

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Ya I get what he’s saying..but to a point. We still do have 10 days left to November, so it is extremely early for SNE with regards to chances for snow in our area. 
 

Here’s the problem, I think the bottom line is everybody hates to see a hostile(or somewhat hostile look) as we enter into the beginning of our climatological wheelhouse for snow chances in SNE in December.  It gives a bad vibe, which can lead to a bad start, and that is bothersome and irritating for winter enthusiasts.  
 

Mixed signals as we approach early December…I guess we gotta see what happens on the modeling this last 10 days of November. 

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s not even December. :facepalm:

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Its like the movie Groundhog day with some of these comments. Can't wait for that one storm that gets all their minds off the doom and gloom lol. I find every moment to be fascinating even when it's boring. This is weather, this is what it's like. Hasn't really even begun yet and some people are already calling for it to be over. It's comical

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:27 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ya I get what he’s saying..but to a point. We still do have 10 days left to November, so it is extremely early for SNE with regards to chances for snow in our area. 
 

Here’s the problem, I think the bottom line is everybody hates to see a hostile(or somewhat hostile look) as we enter into the beginning of our climatological wheelhouse for snow chances in SNE in December.  It gives a bad vibe, which can lead to a bad start, and that is bothersome and irritating for winter enthusiasts.  
 

Mixed signals as we approach early December…I guess we gotta see what happens on the modeling this last 10 days of November. 

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As Larry Cosgrove once said, deal with it. 

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  On 11/20/2022 at 1:37 PM, WinterWolf said:

That’s a lil different than what you said yesterday afternoon, when you said “the bad look is coming…it’s been modeled.”  Not trying to be a jerk or anything, Just trying to make sure I understand your reasoning that’s all. 
 

So this morning you’re not quite sure if it’s an all out torch/or hostile pattern, because it’s(longer range ensembles) waffling again? 

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You new to this board? Scooter knows every 12 hrs.

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

When should I gas up the snow blower? You have me worried about this train. 

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You totally didn't read my posts about the pattern change. No where was snow mentioned. Smart enough to know climo. But I am sure Ski areas and mountain men are loving it. 6Z EPS smokes them again. Keep tossing its nice to see.

eps_z500_mslp_eus_25.png

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:43 PM, Ginx snewx said:

You totally didn't read my posts about the pattern change. No where was snow mentioned. Smart enough to know climo. But I am sure Ski areas and mountain men are loving it. 6Z EPS smokes them again. Keep tossing its nice to see.

eps_z500_mslp_eus_25.png

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I tossed the op which shows a tropical system. 
I better get break and milk. 

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:43 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

flaccid one atm

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  On 11/20/2022 at 2:41 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Weenie fight 

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When you are on top they come at ya with everything they got. Lol j/k I just think being the New England forum not the AEMATT forum there should be a definite interest in next weekend.

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