tamarack Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 5:51 PM, dendrite said: The sensor artificially loses too much heat to space when it's clear. Expand How can it become colder than the surrounding temp? Disclosure: I still depend on the old max-min instrument and have little understanding of how those remotes work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 7:25 PM, tamarack said: How can it become colder than the surrounding temp? Disclosure: I still depend on the old max-min instrument and have little understanding of how those remotes work. Expand Metal can conduct heat or radiate heat away from itself. It's why car surfaces can get frost on them when the air temp is a few degrees above freezing. That would only occur at night obviously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 7:25 PM, tamarack said: How can it become colder than the surrounding temp? Disclosure: I still depend on the old max-min instrument and have little understanding of how those remotes work. Expand The heat is lost on radiational cooling nights on object surfaces...the ground, car roof, house roof, etc. With no advection, 2m gets colder from the bottom-up from the ground surface. Black bodies will radiate more than white. It's why you get the frost forming on the car or ground first before the 2m temp reaches 32F. We want the sensor to be representative of the free standing air at 2m...not the temperature of the object (whatever material it may be) that is rapidly losing heat to space. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Scooter beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 6:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro still not biting on the GFS/GGEM type push of cold prior to Tday.....keeps it north of the Canadian border. It did trend much better with the blocking, but it wasn't enough on this run. Expand It actually didn’t look like the GFS really was that much colder in the larger synoptic base, either. So what it’s really doing is it just has an exceptionally dense b clinic interface extending between Michigan in Central New England and the problem is is that once you lobe that kind of air mass around those green and white mountains it’s going to come all the way down to New Jersey. …and that’s why we get that look in there. But if one steps back from orbit that’s really still a warm sort of layout …and I know it sounds like it’s paradoxic. it’s just how our local Geo physical features kind of give us an advantage when it comes to tucking. Play this case of GFS is tucking a paste air mass. And it really is something how different that is between central New Jersey and Worcester Massachusetts 18z of the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 That’s a big change in the pacific on eps in the long range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 EPS is def a bit colder out in clown range than last night's run. Aleutian ridge quite a bit more poleward which in tandem with the -NAO/AO is a pretty good pattern for winter threats. Definitely not a lot of consistency on guidance out in the extended as Scott said. That decaying block in the Baffin region will have to be watched....sometimes they can be stubborn. A similar type block helped out on a few events in Dec 1995 when the PAC was kind of meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 7:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: EPS is def a bit colder out in clown range than last night's run. Aleutian ridge quite a bit more poleward which in tandem with the -NAO/AO is a pretty good pattern for winter threats. Definitely not a lot of consistency on guidance out in the extended as Scott said. That decaying block in the Baffin region will have to be watched....sometimes they can be stubborn. A similar type block helped out on a few events in Dec 1995 when the PAC was kind of meh. Expand It's nice to look at the extended and not see the deepest blues at 500mb caressing Tijuana. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 45° in downtown Greenfield. We went from wintry appeal to temperate fall day in 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 7:34 PM, dendrite said: The heat is lost on radiational cooling nights on object surfaces...the ground, car roof, house roof, etc. With no advection, 2m gets colder from the bottom-up from the ground surface. Black bodies will radiate more than white. It's why you get the frost forming on the car or ground first before the 2m temp reaches 32F. We want the sensor to be representative of the free standing air at 2m...not the temperature of the object (whatever material it may be) that is rapidly losing heat to space. Expand Thanks to both of you. I doubt that's an issue for my glass tube max-min on plastic mount in a 3-sides protected spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 7:48 PM, CoastalWx said: It's nice to look at the extended and not see the deepest blues at 500mb caressing Tijuana. Expand Yeah that pattern with the poleward Aleutian ridge and some major weakness in the NAO/AO region is something I like to see heading into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 These temps wouldn't put people in the holiday mood for Black Friday, especially in E areas. These temps or CMC's would be more in the holiday spirit. Still 9 days out though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 December 2007 or bust in the deep interior! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 6:29 PM, CoastalWx said: I thought the GFS did fairly well inside day 2 or so. It did sort of show more of a weaker and disorganized look. Euro was dumping over a foot from PF to northern NH. I thought Euro was too wet at first, then it went dry here for whatever reason. Expand As usual a blend, lol. GGEM and Euro had the axis correct but were too wet. GFS was too far south but had the lighter QPF right. The snow maps as expected proved too high as I think it was under 10:1 ratios. My yard feels like 6-7:1 wet, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 The continuity between these GFS runs is nothing short of extraordinary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 10:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said: The continuity between these GFS runs is nothing short of extraordinary Expand I guess it’s been steady…is it correct? Hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 10:50 PM, WinterWolf said: I guess it’s been steady…is it correct? Hope so. Expand It's not steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 11:10 PM, MJO812 said: It's not steady Expand Oh I guess I misunderstood Tip then. My mistake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I don’t mind suppressed vs primary into the Great Lakes on the models. Let’s compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 11:37 PM, George001 said: The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B). Expand Because it gets a shot of energy off the pacific and the blocking is less than what the gfs shows. So you get a chilly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 11:37 PM, George001 said: The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B). Expand Well I’ll give you credit George…you did not say the words massive blizzard in your post. I guess that’s some progress. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 11:41 PM, WinterWolf said: Well I’ll give you credit George…you did not say the words massive blizzard in your post. I guess that’s some progress. Expand He is the opposite of Snowman19. A tale of two weenies. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 11:38 PM, CoastalWx said: Because it gets a shot of energy off the pacific and the blocking is less than what the gfs shows. So you get a chilly rain. Expand The blocking isn’t all that strong so the secondary redevelopment being too late for us makes sense, but on the surface the Euro and EPS are plowing the low into Wisconsin like there is no block whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 this west based -NAO and extremely deep 50/50 is pretty textbook for a large coastal storm the signal is there, just still have to fight climo at this point. if this was a month later the alarm bells would already be going off haha 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 On 11/16/2022 at 11:43 PM, Rtd208 said: He is the opposite of Snowman19. A tale of two weenies. Expand Compromise would work. A normal winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 On 11/17/2022 at 12:03 AM, brooklynwx99 said: this west based -NAO and extremely deep 50/50 is pretty textbook for a large coastal storm the signal is there, just still have to fight climo at this point. if this was a month later the alarm bells would already be going off haha Expand I’ve heard Will call that a piece of the PV, you call it a 50/50 low cuz it’s in that geographic position so I get that. So is it a piece of the PV that’s in the 50/50 position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 On 11/17/2022 at 12:16 AM, WinterWolf said: I’ve heard Will call that a piece of the PV, you call it a 50/50 low cuz it’s in that geographic position so I get that. So is it a piece of the PV that’s in the 50/50 position? Expand yeah, it’s basically just an area of below normal heights around Nova Scotia. a legit one forms from a block, and it leads to confluence over SE Canada that locks a HP and cold air in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 On 11/17/2022 at 12:16 AM, WinterWolf said: I’ve heard Will call that a piece of the PV, you call it a 50/50 low cuz it’s in that geographic position so I get that. So is it a piece of the PV that’s in the 50/50 position? Expand Yes frequently a 50/50 low can just be a PV lobe that sets up shop there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 On 11/17/2022 at 12:20 AM, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it’s basically just an area of below normal heights around Nova Scotia. a legit one forms from a block, and it leads to confluence over SE Canada that locks a HP and cold air in Expand On 11/17/2022 at 12:21 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yes frequently a 50/50 low can just be a PV lobe that sets up shop there. Expand Thank you both for the explanation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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