November 2022 OBS/DISC

[CarverWX]

low of 23. coldest so far

[Baroclinic Zone]

25F

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22/17.    Coldest morning of the season so far. 

[Len Ticular]

Low Of 23F

[Damage In Tolland]

Cool and dry for days and days while Buffalo get 2-4’ of snow 

[powderfreak]

20F. Cold season is here.

[DavisStraight]

24, coldest by far

[CoastalWx]

27.9. We did it.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Better blocking in long range on ensembles overnight. Also still a solid storm signal continuing around Thanksgiving. 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cool and dry for days and days while Buffalo get 2-4’ of snow 

But it’s  fake 

[CoastalWx]

Logan still didn’t hit 32.

[SJonesWX]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cool and dry for days and days while Buffalo get 2-4’ of snow 

sure, if you don't count the rain coming tonight into tomorrow

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Logan still didn’t hit 32.

Kind of surprised by that.  
 

insane frost here at 21/21 …. Even ORH was 25 … 

The old Logan goose?

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Better blocking in long range on ensembles overnight. Also still a solid storm signal continuing around Thanksgiving. 

Yeah that 0Z oper GFS goes seemingly historic with EPO in the deep range.

I mentioned this yesterday… Seems to be a hemispheric war going on/reflected in the models, between the will of the polar indices vs the will of the ENSO.  They are in a bit of a diametric states. 

I’m just kind of musing with that… But sometimes -ENSO winters do represent early before getting sucky later on so it could just be part of all that too

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS with a few inches of OES the weekend of Thanksgiving. Frigid run

[Baroclinic Zone]

Do not like this... 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s go baby. 

[brooklynwx99]

here were some thoughts I posted in the MA subforum, they're applicable here too. the blocking showing up looks legit and Dec 2010 is looking like a better and better analog recently

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's also quite easy to see how we get from the pattern at the end of the EPS to a pattern like December 2010. yes, I know there was bad luck for you guys down here, but I would take that pattern in the MA every single time

all that's really needed is for the blocking to mature and retrograde, which is something that blocking from Scandinavian ridging often does over the course of a few weeks. it takes some time, but it happens more often than not. yes, the Pacific looks "bad" with the -PNA, but it doesn't matter with a west-based -NAO and cross-polar flow established by the poleward Aleutian ridge

so, not to hype things up too much, but the chance for a Dec 2010-like pattern is becoming a bit higher looking at the general pattern progression

[WinterWolf]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Logan still didn’t hit 32.

Now that’s fake. That sensor is placed in a place in such a way/and location that it skews high, and thus the data. 

[Great Snow 1717]

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, with the current oil prices, there is going to be some diligent wood burning at my house.

27/19 with a living room temperature of 74. 

Wow!!....that is far too warm for my liking.  I like my home to be cool during the fall/winter.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here were some thoughts I posted in the MA subforum, they're applicable here too. the blocking showing up looks legit and Dec 2010 is looking like a better and better analog recently

Yeah it’s close. But definitely don’t want to see that trough over the west coast of Canada get stronger. Let’s shift that blocking in Greenland further southwest. 

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Wow!!....that is far too warm for my liking.  I like my home to be cool during the fall/winter.

last night the wood stove was cooking, hit 82° in the living room....I did not add another log after 10 pm and it was still 66° when I woke up this morning. Not too bad despite the 18.9° temp this morning

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Now that’s fake. That sensor is placed in a place in such a way/and location that it skews high, and thus the data. 

Fake warmth at Logan as usual . 

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m probably in the minority but as a winter storm enthusiast I’m not too keen on blocking over Greenland punching southwest into the Maritimes like that…

But I guess we can get into relative weighting and so forth to really qualify that - in other words …yeah, it depends on what’s going on all around it.  It doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad, I just would rather not

The hangup I’m having with it is that we go from the storm track redirect to a storm track suppression scenario with very narrow window.

It’s probably why studies like H.A. from way way back in the day demoed that index modality is when the systems happen …less during stable index modes… But that gets into a tl;dr… I mean the entire study is really intuitive: if a given system is in stasis (mode) no storms; disrupt that mode (modality) …storm

I kind a like middling height +hgt anomalies that take place NE-E of James Bay … more indirectly footed in blocking over Greenland but not the boulder itself.  You see field swell and recede over the course of 300 hrs … perhaps a couple of times in the mid/upper atmosphere.  The occurrence of that is probably more a reflection of the non-linear wave response off the Pacific but that’s really getting complex  … Anyway, when that happens more modestly like that we tend/allow more dynamic stream interplay in the Ohio valley-MA-NE sandbox … better storm production that way.  

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m probably in the minority but as a winter storm enthusiast I’m not too keen on blocking over Greenland punching southwest into the Maritimes like that…

But I guess we can get into relative weighting and so forth to really qualify that - in other words …yeah, it depends on what’s going on all around it.  It doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad, I just would rather not

The hangup I’m having with it is that we go from the storm track redirect to a storm track suppression scenario with very narrow window.

It’s probably why studies like H.A. from way way back in the day demoed that index modality is when the systems happen …less during stable index modes… But that gets into a tl;dr… I mean the entire study is really intuitive: if a given system is in stasis (mode) no storms; disrupt that mode (modality) …storm

I kind a like middling height +hgt anomalies that take place NE-E of James Bay … more indirectly footed in blocking over Greenland but not the boulder itself.  You see field swell and recede over the course of 300 hrs … perhaps a couple of times in the mid/upper atmosphere.  The occurrence of that is probably more a reflection of the non-linear wave response off the Pacific but that’s really getting complex  … Anyway, when that happens more modestly like that we tend/allow more dynamic stream interplay in the Ohio valley-MA-NE sandbox … better storm production that way.  

The problem is the Pacific starts to get a little unfavorable. So we'll need that to help nose in some colder air. I don't think that would suppress as it stands given the lower heights near BC. Probably more of some overrunning deals..maybe a clipper or even miller B if timed well. 

[DavisStraight]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Wow!!....that is far too warm for my liking.  I like my home to be cool during the fall/winter.

My family room pushes 80 when I get the stove cooking, the other rooms are low 70's, it's just that one room that gets warm, all the pets congregate there.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

My family room pushes 80 when I get the stove cooking, the other rooms are low 70's, it's just that one room that gets warm, all the pets congregate there.

Yikes!!!

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem is the Pacific starts to get a little unfavorable. So we'll need that to help nose in some colder air. I don't think that would suppress as it stands given the lower heights near BC. Probably more of some overrunning deals..maybe a clipper or even miller B if timed well. 

I was thinking that too..one offsets the other in that case. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was thinking that too..one offsets the other in that case. 

I suppose it could go nuclear...but as it stands now..I don't think it would suppress??

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem is the Pacific starts to get a little unfavorable. So we'll need that to help nose in some colder air. I don't think that would suppress as it stands given the lower heights near BC. Probably more of some overrunning deals..maybe a clipper or even miller B if timed well. 

Oh I agree lol I just meant that I get a little bit nervous paranoia when I see the retrograde starting to happen.

Like I said “doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad” and it depends also what’s going on all around. 

…having said that… My experience over the years is that we’re better off with the description I provided before, rather than just getting a big block parked like an elephant‘s ass east of James Bay. Not that anyone in present company is thinking so… but feel that there is that misconception, perhaps a vestige of those 1990s hoopla surrounding the NAO when it first busted press and became the whole popular meme of the day