kdxken Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 hours ago, dryslot said: Next shot looks the weekend after thanksgiving for wintry weather out side of the areas that will see snow weds. That's all right I'll take 45 more days like today . It's a beauty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, kdxken said: That's all right I'll take 45 more days like today . It's a beauty. 36°F and winds out of the NW @20 mph G30mph, A real cocka. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, kdxken said: That's all right I'll take 45 more days like today . It's a beauty. Been busting my rear since sunrise getting my birds winterized. Definitely a nice one. I thought the cold would bother me more than it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 43 here. Finally feels like November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Early deep winter day at warmest part of day . First day in 30’s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 43 here. Finally feels like November. And then some…quite the shock out there today. We toughen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 40 here at peak heating with full sun all day. Winter like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 6 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Don’t ever show that piece of shit here again…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 I hope this happens. I'm a big fan of cold, windy, and dry with no prospects of storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, dryslot said: 36°F and winds out of the NW @20 mph G30mph, A real cocka. Hi of 40F, down to 36F now. 1st day it legit feels like late Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Im at 42, must be a warm spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the AO/NAO trying to ramp up on the EPS. We lose the PNA ridging out west but at least we still have cross-polar flow via the -WPO. This pattern isn't super cold, but it's not warm either. Prob a lot of chances in that type of pattern if it holds into December. what low track does this produce? pacific lows coming under that west coast trof and then down the clippers? or storms going under the sw ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the AO/NAO trying to ramp up on the EPS. We lose the PNA ridging out west but at least we still have cross-polar flow via the -WPO. This pattern isn't super cold, but it's not warm either. Prob a lot of chances in that type of pattern if it holds into December. That is pretty much what I had for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what low track does this produce? pacific lows coming under that west coast trof and then down the clippers? or storms going under the sw ridge? WAA snows, SWFE, can even be Miller Bs if the EPO block is strong enough and well positioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what low track does this produce? pacific lows coming under that west coast trof and then down the clippers? or storms going under the sw ridge? Prob a lot of clippers and SWFEs....you typically want a big western ridge for large coastal storms....but that type of pattern can also produce some miller Bs (Jan 12, 2011 was an extreme example of one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: WAA snows, SWFE, can even be Miller Bs if the EPO block is strong enough and well positioned Lol, ninja'd....your pattern recognition in the last few years has improved exponentially. 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob a lot of clippers and SWFEs....you typically want a big western ridge for large coastal storms....but that type of pattern can also produce some miller Bs (Jan 12, 2011 was an extreme example of one) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob a lot of clippers and SWFEs....you typically want a big western ridge for large coastal storms....but that type of pattern can also produce some miller Bs (Jan 12, 2011 was an extreme example of one) I'll take that pattern in December...string of coastals that early brings Cantore to ORH for TSnow orgies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Weeklies backed off the furnace December....still show a bit of a relaxation in early December but it flips back to a colder pattern for second half of the month. But honestly, they haven't been consistent or skillful at all so far this cold season out beyond week 3 so not gonna put much stock into it....even if we like the holiday period pattern it shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Ryan’s got a rainer and 50’s for Tgiving. To me that one has a chance to be snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan’s got a rainer and 50’s for Tgiving. To me that one has a chance to be snow More likely to be rain or nothing....but if we're playing devil's advocate, you want that NAO block a bit more stout to push that system underneath us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Hey guys if you need a snow fix Buffalo may have something to hold you over. 2 feet plus possible of fake snow from Thursday to Saturday. Some model runs have printed a lot more than that. They've had some November doozies to point where all but the most mental were crying for their mothers. 8 years ago, to the day: Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov) Can they do it again? Here is a rip for the upstate NY thread: Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan’s got a rainer and 50’s for Tgiving. To me that one has a chance to be snow 10 days out…ya ok. He’s gotta throw something in the box for day 10, but it’s a dart shot in the dark at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 @Damage In Tolland 18z GFS shows how to get it more wintry for Tday. Nice sleet bomb on this depiction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Now that is violent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @Damage In Tolland 18z GFS shows how to get it more wintry for Tday. Nice sleet bomb on this depiction Yeah I think that’s the lean . Likely not gonna cut into a -AO/ - NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Will be in Tolland tomorrow, the ear popping high peaks will be exciting 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Will be in Tolland tomorrow, the ear popping high peaks will be excitingDon't forgot to bring supplemental O2Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: Hey guys if you need a snow fix Buffalo may have something to hold you over. 2 feet plus possible of fake snow from Thursday to Saturday. Some model runs have printed a lot more than that. They've had some November doozies to point where all but the most mental were crying for their mothers. 8 years ago, to the day: Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov) Can they do it again? Here is a rip for the upstate NY thread: Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I may chase that ...hmm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @Damage In Tolland 18z GFS shows how to get it more wintry for Tday. Nice sleet bomb on this depiction I love those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah I think that’s the lean . Likely not gonna cut into a -AO/ - NAO It’s not a super strong block on most guidance right now so I’d probably hedge warmer like the euro look. But can’t rule out the colder scenario. A lot will depend on how the EPO block breaks down…on some of the colder CONUS looks, it pinches off and retrogrades up into the AO region and strengthens the block which would produce a colder look Tday week/weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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