November 2022 OBS/DISC

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Note there is no quantification of what "winter weather" risk entails...  Is it a coating, a couple of inches, a foot of snow???  Or is just some flakes in the air a a few pellets bouncing around?  Meaningless graphic in me eyes...

It’s just some clown trying to get likes/or clicks, or whatever the hell they’re called for his site.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shaping narratives is the thing on here the past 5-8 years. 
 

We’ll run the numbers when the next 2 weeks is done. My guess is the next two weeks (after tomorrow…so from 11/13-11/26) average well below average temps. Prob somewhere in the -6 to -10 range. 
 

You can’t really lie/spin effectively if empirical evidence is opposing your narrative. 

When you’re the pope, you can. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sure you can try but you’ll look ridiculous if the empirical evidence doesn’t back you up. 
 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s good Mets everywhere!

That’s why we asked where you found this one. 

[Lava Rock]

71.8F. Torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

Both cheeks stuck together firmly here in Miami...two-ply day

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I don’t know I was pretty vocal about not being sure whether it was seasonal cold versus something more extreme myself. I remember saying  that to Will.

So it still doesn’t look very clear to me. There are reasons not to rush the cold east that get into sort of a TL; DR  

I can’t stress enough that these models tend an amplitude magnification for anything really being handled, facet or events, beyond ~ D 5 

I’m not saying it won’t get very cold and sport a big snowstorm.  You know the 540 dm hydrostat’s going to align between roughly Indianapolis and Boston and oscillate up and down. With a colder total troposphere than anything we’ve experience to date, so if nothing else it’s a pretty coherent step down

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don’t understand it. Looks like a BN look to me. But people are acting like everyone called for highs in the 20s with blizzards. 

I've only seen one November blizzard, 11/21/89 in Gardiner to set the stage for the frigid December, but if 11/13-26 runs -6 to -10 here, we'll likely see some highs <30.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tamarack said:

I've only seen one November blizzard, 11/21/89 in Gardiner to set the stage for the frigid December, but if 11/13-26 runs -6 to -10 here, we'll likely see some highs <30.

Up there you’ll likely have a few sub-freezing highs. 

[Torch Tiger]

Yesterday 10am lunch in Quincy, MA. 65F!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro back to giving NNH and Maine elevations a small snow event Sunday evening into overnite w the trailing energy after x Nicole riding up 

[Baroclinic Zone]

nice day, other than the clouds.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro back to giving NNH and Maine elevations a small snow event Sunday evening into overnite w the trailing energy after x Nicole riding up 

It has a decent event in NNE next week too. 

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

The Dark Web!

Of course. Short days and low sun angle enhance the dark web this time of year!

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don’t understand it. Looks like a BN look to me. But people are acting like everyone called for highs in the 20s with blizzards. 

It’s that time of year.  It’s the tug between climo and desires.  Like “above normal” in late April turns some folks thinking an official heatwave is coming.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, FXWX said:

The Dark Web!

KevAnon

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

KevAnon

K'Anon

[dmcginvt]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting on 2005.  The Stake dropped to 40” in early February that winter.  It wasn’t a bad winter, just about average, but compared to what happened down in SNE it was suppression with 100” seasonal totals for places that average 30-40”.

Relatively speaking it was a suppression type season for the anomalies IMO…. But there was a good 4-week run in mid-Feb to mid-March.

 

 

Heres the pic i was thinking of

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

mm   i'd also consider ice option next Wednesday in the deep interior/drain routes.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dmcginvt said:

Heres the pic i was thinking of

 

 

 

Ha that works.  Definitely don’t remember that one. Probably from still being in BTV and not Stowe.  There was a good looking 4-week period mid Feb to mid March.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha that works.  Definitely don’t remember that one. Probably from still being in BTV and not Stowe.  There was a good looking 4-week period mid Feb to mid March.

That was winters revival in SNE too after a bit of a break with some messier/mix/warmer events in early February. We rebuilt the pack to around 25-27” in ORH during that period after it had been matted down to like a 6-8” glacier. There was a lot of water in the pack by mid March. Luckily it was a very slow melt off with dry weather mostly in late Mar/early Apr.  

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dmcginvt said:

Heres the pic i was thinking of

 

 

 

That storm was the end of significant snow here, and thru Feb 9 we had not seen even a 4" event.  Then Feb 10-March 12 featured 4 major storms and some littl'uns for a 60" period total and 94" (105% of avg) for the snow season.  Only 9" OG on 2/9 but up to 35" on 3/12.  The board included a member from Fort Kent then and he posted pics showing snow halfway up ground floor windows.

[MJO812]

Congrats NNE on gfs

[Lava Rock]

Congrats NNE on gfs

This is our winter

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Sn0waddict]

66/65. Muggy.  It looks like we are done with most of the heavier rain. 

[Hoth]

Pouring. 

[TalcottWx]

On 11/10/2022 at 5:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yep keeps splitting and getting stretched.

You like that don't you

[TalcottWx]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Except me in Wilmington, MA with a foot...

Tommy likey

[TalcottWx]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shaping narratives is the thing on here the past 5-8 years. 
 

We’ll run the numbers when the next 2 weeks is done. My guess is the next two weeks (after tomorrow…so from 11/13-11/26) average well below average temps. Prob somewhere in the -6 to -10 range. 
 

You can’t really lie/spin effectively if empirical evidence is opposing your narrative. 

Weird, what happened 5 years ago. 

[TalcottWx]

6 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

except it's not the weenies (well, maybe 1 or 2). in this case, it's a met saying that people are calling for that

He's thirsty for followers.