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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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  On 11/10/2022 at 3:24 PM, jbenedet said:

We get close to Normal temps in November this clown celebrates, a cold snap. Been so warm you forgot what your climo is.  Guy still staring out 3 weeks, when his weeklies from 2 weeks ago turned to this. Ooops

:clown:eps_z500a_us_25.png

 

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You’re drunk and confused. Take a break and go pray.

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Nice Miller A/‘NJ model’ hybrid low in the American flagship guidance, huh 

I was vocal about the Tenn V cyclogen potential after the guard change takes over the continent … Still feel that potential is enhancing. Not sure if the GFS is necessarily honing the right interval - it’s consistency is noted.  But the Euro emphasized  the earlier interval in the 00z.  Both operating within the same synoptic motif - either could ‘win’ and they’d behave/impact similarly  

Caveat emptor on any of them

— the 20 to 30% over amplitude bias of beyond ~ D5s.  I feel firing a Tenn V flat dart off the upper MA and sending it through 980mbs …qualifies as suspect candidate. 

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  On 11/10/2022 at 6:41 PM, bwt3650 said:

They are going to do it regardless I think.  They might get giant 72 hour windows and good temps every night; plus, the world cup wants this race and trusts them. 

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Pretty good chance of some natural help for sure. I know that's probably a small portion of the massive and dense man made snow...but hey it helps.

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  On 11/10/2022 at 5:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

That’s been inspector looming for weeks actually… Any kind of classical interpretive evaluation over what that construct implies is pretty constrained around winter frankly-with a question being seasonal cold versus extreme cold notwithstanding but it’s not gonna be merely normal.
 

Not taking sides. I’m not part of the discussion and don’t know the history but I’ve been pretty clear about my position on matters, not that anybody cares lol

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Yes, we’ve been trying to tell the Pope it’s not normal mid November temps, but he just keeps on behaving blasphemously. 

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  On 11/10/2022 at 7:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

What?

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Just mentioning a article that was on MarketWatch .com “Nicole is Florida’s first November hurricane in 40 years, How climate change is extending Hurricane season” . These articles pose as scientific fact these days , wasn’t sure this was the slam dunk the article claims 

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  On 11/10/2022 at 7:11 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just mentioning a article that was on MarketWatch .com “Nicole is Florida’s first November hurricane in 40 years, How climate change is extending Hurricane season”

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A hurricane during hurricane season. What an anomaly. It was barely tropical and likely aided by a massive high to the north tightening the pressure gradient. Jesus.

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  On 11/10/2022 at 7:11 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just mentioning a article that was on MarketWatch .com “Nicole is Florida’s first November hurricane in 40 years, How climate change is extending Hurricane season” . These articles pose as scientific fact these days , wasn’t sure this was the slam dunk the article claims 

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"Sponsored by the Media!"

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  On 11/10/2022 at 7:14 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

this is really nice to see. that's a legit -NAO/-AO on a 5-day mean

just give the Pacific 7-10 days to reshuffle and that's a great pattern. verbatim that's dry and on the cooler side for you guys around Thanksgiving

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9464000.thumb.png.1891ee1068091c103dcaa0242fc740c6.png

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Would that be a ridge bridge over the top there? 

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  On 11/10/2022 at 8:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looking forward to skiing before month is out 

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It could be on all man-made snow. I firmly believe it is going to be below normal cold but I’m not convinced there’s a lot of QPF for New England.

Doesn’t matter, pond skating is a rare treat so I would take that too. 

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