dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 The CFS should be thrown into the shitter, And i don't care if there are young posters on here, They fukn suck......... 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: God I love the GFS… Lays down 6 to 10” from a flat wave on DCA on the 21st and we get jack shit … Maybe it’s warning us about the winter lol Ya but 12 days out… that’s a dart throw in the dark at this point. I know you know that, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya but 12 days out… that’s a dart throw in the dark at this point. It was meant for bitter sarcasm/droll humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It was meant for bitter sarcasm/droll humor. Yup, and wouldn’t that be a kick in the nads. Glad it’s just fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Ensemble consensus on help from nao region as AK ridging retros to Bering Strait. Could be a nice pattern for December this year. Yore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: What a great call by Ginxy. I mean you look to have nailed this change/cold coming with pin point precision. Most impressive imo. Wow. Oh and, I almost forgot about the “Home Brew too..guy is on fire. Cards were on the table for both. Huge EPO bump, models always correct late for that magnitude of EPO, home brew was a no brainer for weeks. Thanks for the compliment win some lose a lot. Such is the weather. Hopefully carries well into Dec. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 28.2 makes for the first sub-freezing temp of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Tasty early season runs today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tasty early season runs today. With that extended euro layout… weather we are enjoying it with snow on the ground or not with these sloped sun angles through that deep layer trajectory and overall synoptic ambience… ? Easily talkin pond skating and outdoor hockey by thanks giggity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 It’s building, it’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tasty early season runs today. that 50/50 and -NAO dipole is already beginning to show up. always very nice to see the deepest negative anomalies in the 50/50 region track that 2 weeks forward - Aleutian LP builds as the Pacific jet extends alongside retrograding Scandinavian ridging and you're looking at a really nice pattern after the first week of December 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that 50/50 and -NAO dipole is already beginning to show up. always very nice to see the deepest negative anomalies in the 50/50 region track that 2 weeks forward - Aleutian LP builds as the Pacific jet extends alongside retrograding Scandinavian ridging and you're looking at a really nice pattern after the first week of December 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: 28.2 makes for the first sub-freezing temp of the season. seriously? been below 32 here several many times. warm lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Little ridge bridge trying to show up on the 10-15 day you can see from Brooklynwx99’s post. That helps push those negative anomalies further south into New England. You can bet there would likely be a winter threat or two in that type of pattern even in late November. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: It’s building, it’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Little ridge bridge trying to show up on the 10-15 day you can see from Brooklynwx99’s post. That helps push those negative anomalies further south into New England. You can bet there would likely be a winter threat or two in that type of pattern even in late November. I’m not sure what the return on November snow is here, but I feel like I’m the grand scheme, we are due. Outside of Nov 18, I can’t recall a November snow event here, at least not in the last 20 years. That was more than a coating or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well I was comparing the EC weeklies and then using the 6-10 day from the latest EPS to show how bad the weeklies did from week 3 initialized on 10/27. My guess is the CFS weeklies also showed a torch too. I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure what the return on November snow is here, but I feel like I’m the grand scheme, we are due. Outside of Nov 18, I can’t recall a November snow event here, at least not in the last 20 years. That was more than a coating or flurries. Outside of a snow event of a few inches or more every several years…it’s a coating to an Inch here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Decent November snows usually are harbingers of snowy winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it… I have not looked at those yet. I’ll have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 while everyone is focusing on snow that may be there right when I get back, I can say that I was within 20 miles of landfall of hurricane Nicole, stuck in hotel on Juno Beach, high tide at 2115, might have to go see that... latest Dropsonde showed over 62kts from surface up, eye near calm, definitely defined eye now...love this! first actual hurricane for me since Gloria 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, tavwtby said: while everyone is focusing on snow that may be there right when I get back, I can say that I was within 20 miles of landfall of hurricane Nicole, stuck in hotel on Juno Beach, high tide at 2115, might have to go see that... latest Dropsonde showed over 62kts from surface up, eye near calm, definitely defined eye now...love this! first actual hurricane for me since Gloria Danger ahead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Looks like my old neighborhood in Palm City going to take a decent hit by Nicole. I don’t miss putting shutters up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Outside of a snow event of a few inches or more every several years…it’s a coating to an Inch here or there. With some minor glazing events thrown in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: With some minor glazing events thrown in between Well I meant for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Danger ahead nah ..a wee gale, but exciting nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Outside of a snow event of a few inches or more every several years…it’s a coating to an Inch here or there. Right… I’m talking more like 5+. We had 6” or so in November 18 and I can’t remember another multiple inch event at least back to 2000 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, tavwtby said: nah ..a wee gale, but exciting nonetheless Nothing like being in tropical. Congrats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right… I’m talking more like 5+. We had 6” or so in November 18 and I can’t remember another multiple inch event at least back to 2000 here November 2018, November 2012 we had a good one here, November 02 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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