Amped Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 90% chance per NHC 2pm , now appears as if it will develop. There is a lot of spread in the intensity guidance, as one would expect with a small storm. Currently disorganized with multiple centers, it will probably consolidate near the centroid some time tonight or tomorrow. [img]https://i.imgur.com/t0GhtpX.png[/img] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 The first advisory on this will be issued at 5PM AST as PTC 15. It currently is still tilted due to shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 ...ADVISORIES INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 73.6W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island of Jamaica. The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grand Cayman Island. -------------------------- Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 This morning we were fortunate to have concurrent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter missions, which provided a wealth of flight-level, Tail Doppler Radar, and dropsonde data over the system in the central Caribbean Sea. The data indicated that a well-defined, while somewhat broad, circulation had formed with a minimum pressure of 1005 mb. A combination of SFMR winds and surface dropsonde data also suggested that the system had 35-kt winds in its northern semicircle. With that said, the satellite presentation of the system currently lacks sufficient convective organization to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, given the well-defined center and tropical-storm-force winds, there is significant risk for tropical storm conditions in the near future in portions of Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island. With the expectation that this system will likely become a tropical storm soon, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. The estimated motion of the disturbance is off to the west-northwest at 290/9 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so, as an expansive mid-level ridge is currently centered north of the system and expected to move westward with the cyclone. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge may nose further westward as a deep-layer trough becomes established well to the the northeast, which could result in a south of due west motion when the system approaches the coast of Belize. Landfall is expected between the 72- and 96-hour forecast points. The initial NHC track forecast is roughly a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, which is also quite close to the HCCA and TCVA consensus aids. Based on the current structure, it may take a bit longer for the convection to become sufficently organized to allow the formation of a tropical cyclone, but this is forecast to occur at some point tonight, likely during the typical diurnal maximum. After deep convection become better established, environmental conditions appear to be conducive for further intensification, especially in the 24-48 hour period when the vertical wind shear is expected to be lowest (5-15 kt) as the system traverses 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Mid-level relative humidity is quite low (55-60 percent), but given the relatively low shear, this may act to keep the system's structure small with a constricted radius of maximum winds. The initial intensity forecast after 24 hours closely follows the latest HCCA and ICON intensity guidance, making the system a Category 1 hurricane in 60-72 hours. The system should weaken quickly over land and is forecast to dissipate before day 5. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica, and the government in the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grand Cayman Island. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand Cayman Island. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DISTURBANCE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 74.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Satellite imagery and data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate there has been little change in the structure of the disturbance this evening. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is apparent in satellite imagery between two areas of disorganized convection to the northwest of a loosely-curved convective band. The aircraft data shows that the circulation at 460 mb is located to the southeast of the surface center and is not well defined at that level. Dropsondes to the northeast of the center showed surface winds of 30 kt, and drops near the center suggest the central pressure is near 1005 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The estimated initial motion is a little to the left of the previous advisory, 280/10 kt. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so due to the presence of a westward moving mid-level ridge north of the center. After that time, the ridge should build a little faster toward the west and southwest, resulting in a south of west motion as the system approaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just after 72 h. The forecast guidance has shifted southward through 60 h, and the new forecast track is nudged in that direction. However, the new track lies to the north of the various consensus models. It should be noted that the the forecast track could undergo some additional adjustments until the circulation center becomes better defined. A combination of the current disorganized structure, moderate west-northwesterly shear, and weakly convergent upper-level flow should limit intensification for the next 12-24 h. However, the system is still expected to become a tropical storm in about 12 h when the convection increases during the diurnal maximum. After 24 h, increased upper-level divergence, decreased shear, and better organization should allow a faster development rate, and the system is expected to steadily strengthen. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula, with a forecast peak intensity of 70 kt being near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. No changes to the current watches are required at this time. A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for Jamaica Monday morning depending on the evolution of the track and the 34-kt wind radii. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand Cayman Island. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 15.8N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/1200Z 16.0N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/0000Z 16.3N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 16.7N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 17.1N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 17.3N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.1N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 77.3W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES ------------------------- Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35 kt. After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast. Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend, but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data for the 12 UTC suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required by late today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 No TT video, a November hurricane in Belize is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 Center still on the north end of the convection, but at least there is convection. Probably will help it in the long run if it can avoid interaction with Honduras. Hopefully the 18z GFS is wrong keeping it a weak TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 ...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 79.1W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Lisa is gradually becoming better organized with the associated convection deepening and expanding around the center. However, the system still lacks banding features. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Lisa and so far have found flight-level winds as high as 46 kt and peak SFMR winds of about 35 kt. This data supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the north of Lisa is expected to build westward. This pattern should keep the storm on a steady westward path, bringing the core of the cyclone near or just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras late Tuesday night/early Wednesday and across Belize by late Wednesday. The models are in fairly good agreement through landfall, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the next couple of days. After landfall, the models diverge with some solutions showing a northwest track and others a southwest motion. The NHC track forecast continues to split the difference, and it is a touch south of the previous one to be a little closer to the various consensus models. The environmental conditions appear relatively favorable for Lisa to strengthen during the next 36 to 48 hours. SSTs are quite warm beneath the cyclone and the vertical wind shear is expected to be low to moderate. There is some dry air near the system, however, which might slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the consensus models and continues to show Lisa becoming a hurricane when it is over the Gulf of Honduras early Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain that intensity when it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland, and even though the forecast shows a 96-h point, it is certainty possible that Lisa could have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the remainder of the coast of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are possible. 3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday. 4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 16.0N 81.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.9N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/0000Z 16.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Recon is finding a weak system with a broad center tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 Center jumped north on the latest pass to where that northern convective blob just popped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 The core is finally beginning to tighten up a bit. A nice ball of convection is riding west with the center. It appears the core will barely track north of the Honduras coast. Perhaps that will hold the strength down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 81.8W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Bay Islands. The government of Guatemala has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire Caribbean coast. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, and a Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal to Punta Herrero. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Puerto Barrios to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire north coast of Honduras * North coast of Guatemala * Chetumal to Punta Herrero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to 55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite classifications. Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast, but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon. 2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df-e275mWqs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 997mb with 57kts at the surface on the latest pass. Banding around the core looks organized. It's go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Upgraded to Hurricane Lisa per 7AM CDT advisory package. Still plenty of time for this to keep intensifying prior to landfall. A category 2 seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Frankly, Lisa looks a bit disheveled. There appears to be a bit of southerly shear and the behavior of the convection suggests it's fighting some dry air in the core. The pressure has only very slowly fallen overnight and is still about 990 mb according to the latest recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 As Lisa approaches the coast, recon is finding a ~990 mb, 80 mph storm. It never really took off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Pretty decent improvement over the past few hours. Eye is starting to clear out on visible. Running out of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 420 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 ...LISA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE... Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Lisa has made landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT (2120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 mb (29.24 inches). SUMMARY OF 420 PM CDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 Lisa is officially dead, but there is still a remnant low W of the convection. Not coming back w/ 30 knots analyzed shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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