Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I think it'll phase in rather than get kicked like the GFS shows Euro is much further NW with the big rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I think it'll phase in rather than get kicked like the GFS shows The GFS is way too far east/south as usual. Jesus what a God awful model that thing is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Stronger SE Ridge on Euro and CMC so Nicole tracks further west with heavier rains across the area. But there is an intensity difference between the two models. The Euro has less wind and the CMC more. A deeper low pressure will pull in more cold behind it like the CMC has. The OP Euro may be too weak since the Euro control is stronger with higher winds. Euro control stronger like CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(50/63) or +7. Nov. 14-23 are averaging 44(38/49) or -2. Reached 68 here yesterday. Today: 70-75, wind w. to n., clearing skies, 48 tomorrow AM! 68*(92%RH) here at 6am. 67* at 8am. (actually 67-68 since midnight.) 70* at 10am. 71* at 10:15am. 72* at 10:30am. 73* at 11am. 74* at 11:30am. 75* at 1pm. 76* at 1:30pm. Reached 77*(37%RH) at 2:30pm>>>>>held here for 1hr.45mins., RH down to 29%. 70* at 7pm(24%RH). 65* at 9pm. 62* at 10pm. NICOLE Wind Swath Gusts shows path: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Clear skies (higher) 850 MB temps near 12-14C. Believe there will be some 80 degree readings around the area today. Northeast flow cools it down Tue / Wed before warmer SW flow Thu / Fri. This coming weekend we'll see how much of the tropical fetch can merge with approaching front. 11/13 - 11/22 Looks mainly chilly - brunt of cold is east but surge of the chill comes in by the 18-19. Last week of Nov moderates more towards or above normal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Already 70, ISP may hit their all-time high today if it gets warm enough. 78 is the record. HRDPS has 79, HRRR 77 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Stronger SE Ridge on Euro and CMC so Nicole tracks further west with heavier rains across the area. But there is an intensity difference between the two models. The Euro has less wind and the CMC more. A deeper low pressure will pull in more cold behind it like the CMC has. The OP Euro may be too weak since the Euro control is stronger with higher winds. Euro control stronger like CMC The cold for next week is crazy and such a shock to the system. Think the whole area finally goes below freezing next week, Chris? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Already 70, ISP may hit their all-time high today if it gets warm enough. 78 is the record. HRDPS has 79, HRRR 77 all time for the month? I want it to hit 80 to match November 15 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Clear skies (higher) 850 MB temps near 12-14C. Believe there will be some 80 degree readings around the area today. Northeast flow cools it down Tue / Wed before warmer SW flow Thu / Fri. This coming weekend we'll see how much of the tropical fetch can merge with approaching front. 11/13 - 11/22 Looks mainly chilly - brunt of cold is east but surge of the chill comes in by the 18-19. Last week of Nov moderates more towards or above normal First 32 for NYC and the entire area next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 21 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Bizarre with the foliage, low sun angle and early sunset. It feels like summer's coming I was sad to see the lead runner in the NYC marathon collapse at mile 21 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was another day of incredible warmth for November. Records tumbled in many parts of the Northeast. Records included: Binghamton: 71° (old record: 70°, 1978 and 1950) Boston: 76° (old record: 73°, 1938, 1948, 1959, and 2015) Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 2015) Buffalo: 74° (old record: 73°, 1948 and 1956) Burlington: 76° (old record: 75°, 1948) Caribou: 71° (old record: 66°, 2020) ***First November with 2 70° days*** Concord: 75° (tied record set in 1948) Hartford: 76° (tied record set in 2015) Houlton, ME: 71° (old record: 69°, 1938) Islip: 74° (old record: 69°, 2015) Manchester, NH: 77° (old record: 75°, 2015) Millinocket, ME: 71° (old record: 68°, 1938) New Haven: 74° (old record: 69°, 1948, 1959, and 2015) New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 2015) New York City-NYC: 75° (old record: 74°, 1948 and 2015) Providence: 75° (old record: 72°, 1948, 1959, 1994, 2015, and 2020) Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975) Rochester: 72° (tied record set in 1948 and tied in 2005 and 2015) Syracuse: 80° (old record: 74°, 2005) White Plains: 74° (old record: 72°, 2015) Worcester: 72° (old record: 71°, 2020) Tomorrow will be another very warm day. A few places could approach or reach 80°. However, a cold front will bring cooler weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. Beyond mid-month, there are some emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average). There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -17.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.482 today. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.726 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.792 (RMM). It only hit 70 at JFK yesterday-- today will likely be half a dozen degrees warmer or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 13 hours ago, Roger Smith said: As a prelude to expected warmest week of Nov 1-7, can confirm from my tracking that Oct 31-Nov 6 now has new records, mean max of 70.0 is a tie, mean daily 63.50 and mean min 57.0 break existing records. This is based on the provisional values for today, the mean daily and mean min are probably safe if the current reported min of 66 falls a few degrees. (58 for the tie mean minimum) Also the minimum of 64F on 5th broke the daily record of 63F set in 1938 and today's (6th) now confirmed value ties the record 66F from 2015 (several have already posted that 75F is a new daily record max, yesterday and today add two to the former total of 29 days of 75+ in November at NYC). The monthly record high minimum was 67F on Nov 2, 1971. The Nov 1-7 period will likely come out a lot warmer than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 10 hours ago, CIK62 said: All the models pass 98L and its future namesake, outside the BM. GEFS may be a little closer now. btw: Coney Island was screwed these past two days with highs of just 67 and 68 by me. JFK hit 70 yesterday so did we on the south shore of Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: First 32 for NYC and the entire area next week? Id say so either the 14/15 or 18/19 timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: First 32 for NYC and the entire area next week? Not for nyc, at least not before the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: First 32 for NYC and the entire area next week? It’s a close call for Central Park and LaGuardia. Most of the region should see 32 or below. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Not for nyc For now, I’m thinking Central Park will get to 34. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 71 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 On the final day of extreme November warmth, Bridgeport and Islip have tied their daily records and New Haven has broken its daily record as of 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 Ewr 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 75 here. Feels like mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Downslope dandy. Dews quickly dropping, temps now at 76F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Newark closing in on 80°. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 79 50 36 W16G25 30.16F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 78 at ISP ties all time record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I was sad to see the lead runner in the NYC marathon collapse at mile 21 Same here He had a huge lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Disgusting outside 75 in Brooklyn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Disgusting outside 75 in Brooklyn 77 here, and I think it feels great with the lowering humidity. Dewpoint is down to 50 here now, and will be down to about 40 by late afternoon. Beautiful day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 ewr hit 80 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Last bit of heating with the downslope W flow. Much of Nassau up to near 80 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 33 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 78 at ISP ties all time record ISP hit 78.8 between hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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