wdrag Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 21 hours ago, wdrag said: Anyway: Nothing new to add to the above except Low Pressure further N toward to Hud Bay and nearer 980-85MB (weaker) but time for a meso low on the CF and tighten the gradient here. Front side might be a little rough LI/NYC with a shower squall line of sorts in the 6P-mid time frame Wednesday. Ensembles 850 wind is strengthening as we draw closer to the event indicating more ensemble member agreement (55KT). OP (12z/27 NAM/RGEM and 6z/27 EC) runs have over 64 KT in the warm sector over LI. Meanwhile: HRRR offers a few G 45-50MPG e LI this eve. I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed. No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed. No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal. Wind caused some pretty big issues at a fire in Mystic Ct overnight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 hours ago, BxEngine said: Wind caused some pretty big issues at a fire in Mystic Ct overnight. One of my holiday lights came loose...my son was very upset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: One of my holiday lights came loose...my son was very upset Condolences 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Picked up 0.51" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Tomorrow will be cool day. However, temperatures will rebound during the middle of the week. New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869. December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop. The latest EPS suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +23.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.425 today. On November 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.826 (RMM). The November 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.631 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9° (2.9° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 49° Temperatures will rebound tomorrow, but rain is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.4°; 15-Year: 49.7° Newark: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 The last two days of November are averaging 45degs.(40/51) or +3. Week 1 of December is averaging 46degs.(39/53) or +6---so no winter till Dec. 08+++++?????? Month to date is 51.4[+3.1]. November should end at 51.0[+3.0]. Reached 51 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind s., p. sunny, 46 tomorrow AM. 38*(66%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 42* at 10am. 44* at 11am. 45* at Noon. Reached 47* at 3:30pm. 44* at 6am. 45* at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Clouds will increase overnight. During the pre-dawn hours, the temperature will begin to rise. Rain will then overspread the region during the morning. Some of the rain could be briefly heavy. The temperature will top out in the upper 50s to perhaps 60° in parts of the region. New York City is all but certain to see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869. December could start mild, though it will be noticeably cooler than tomorrow. With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December. The latest EPS suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +27.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.932 today. On November 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.745 (RMM). The November 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.826 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9° (2.9° above normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rain will overspread the region this morning. A general 0.25”-0.75” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. It will also become windy with gusts reaching or exceeding 40 mph. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be blustery and cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.4° Newark: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 50.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.6°; 15-Year: 51.2° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 The last day of November is averaging 51degs.(45/58) or +9. The first week of December is averaging 44degs.(39/50) or +4. Month to date is 51.0[+2.8]. November will end at 51.0[+3.0]. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 54-58, wind s. to w.-breezy, cloudy, Rain 10am-7pm., 35 tomorrow AM. A little windy around 1pm from south, quickly goes to west and calms down. 47*(75%RH) here at 6am. 51* at 7am. 52* at 9am. 54* at 10am. 55* at 11am. 56* at Noon. 57* at 2pm. 58* at 4pm. Wind gusts failed here again. 55* at 6pm. 52* at 7pm. 46* at 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Long Island could see some peak gusts in the 50-60 mph range with the heavier downpours later. There isn’t much of an inversion to prevent the 975mb 50KT LLJ from mixing down. So this should be one of our stronger frontal passages in a while. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Let’s see if we can get a legit wind event. It’s been a while as many recent events have underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s see if we can get a legit wind event. It’s been a while as many recent events have underperformed. Wind forecasts generally do underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 My hat blew off my head a few times already today. It’s a little breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Close to half an inch already from round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Max wind gusts so far on meson...isolated 50's including Queens. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Close to half an inch already from round 1 This really filled in nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s see if we can get a legit wind event. It’s been a while as many recent events have underperformed. So far meh here...gusts into the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, Dark Star said: This really filled in nicely... Overperformer for sure .85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: So far meh here...gusts into the 30's I had a couple 40ish gusts on the uws in some wind tunnel spots, other then that very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Winds beginning to roar overhead at times south of ISP, I can hear it from indoors. Roof is also creaking. Nothing major (yet, maybe?), but also not meh here on the south shore. My drive home shall be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Power out in armonk with trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Winds howling out in suffolk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming. Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT. Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS. Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA. Wind advisory plays well. KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, wdrag said: So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming. Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT. Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS. Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA. Wind advisory plays well. KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] Definitely not underperforming. Very high winds and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Peak gust to 66 mph so far in Westchester. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202211302208-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX LARCHMONT HARBOR 66 MPH KINGS POINT 55 MPH FIRE ISLAND CG 55 MPH KEW GARDEN HILLS 51 MPH 1 ESE NORWALK 57 MPH 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Had a few gusts 45 to 50mph as that little squall line came through. Nice event with the rain and wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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