nyrangers1022 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Nibor said: Looks like it's working great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Here's something pretty cool. 12z eps at the end. Doesn't look very inspiring locally. But it's interesting nonetheless, as the next step from Ural Blocking would be a -NAO/Cold siberia pattern. Which is pretty much this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Here's something pretty cool. 12z eps at the end. Doesn't look very inspiring locally. But it's interesting nonetheless, as the next step from Ural Blocking would be a -NAO/Cold siberia pattern. Which is pretty much this: We can definitely score in that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: We can definitely score in that look. Well yeah, but my point is, December SSW follows that look if we follow the Ural Blocking playbook. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Tropical eps still looking good. Like the 12z yesterday, basically. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Tropical eps still looking good. Like the 12z yesterday, basically. Looks like p8 at some point in December which is usually cold in the east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like p8 at some point in December which is usually cold in the east It does. There's a lot going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Well yeah, but my point is, December SSW follows that look if we follow the Ural Blocking playbook. It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles Well stop looking at them, then lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 La nina has been taking shots from the high AAM state (el nino like). Westerly wind has been punching holes in the trades. That didn't happen at all last year. What looks like a strengthening la nina trade burst upcoming, looks to be related to the jet extension at that time. Amplifying the return flow in that period. We'll see what happens after that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Well stop looking at them, then lol Or…hear me out, this might be controversial…discuss twitter opinions with the people posting them…on twitter? Lol 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Or…hear me out, this might be controversial…discuss twitter opinions with the people posting them…on twitter? Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Under abundant sunshine, the mercury soared into the middle and even upper 50s today. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler, but still mild. The weekend could see some rainfall, along with continued mild readings. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.117 today. On November 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.162 (RMM). The November 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.107 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.1° (2.1° above normal). 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 13 hours ago, EasternLI said: Well yeah, but my point is, December SSW follows that look if we follow the Ural Blocking playbook. I've seen that a SSW is forecast for later in December? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL, FOK airport is 20 degrees colder than HWV and 26 colder than E Hampton...I have seen those differences between there and NYC but never the 2 closest airports A car ride between those places would be interesting. Would the windows fog up approaching FOK and then clear up again as you go east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 21 hours ago, bluewave said: The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either. Why are the models so bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: The PNA was never supposed to be favorable Can't have everything I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 On 11/22/2022 at 10:29 AM, NutleyBlizzard said: Thank goodness. I started putting up Xmas lights this past weekend and it was uncomfortable to say the least. This upcoming mild spell comes at the right time. 50s until it snows is good for heating bills too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I've seen that a SSW is forecast for later in December? I don't know if I'd call for one, but it absolutely looks to be one option. Fascinating watching things unfold right now as a long range aficionado. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I don't know if I'd call for one, but it absolutely looks to be one option. Fascinating watching things unfold right now as a long range aficionado. Exciting times ahead....I wonder how the winters usually go when we get an SSW this early? Happy Thanksgiving !!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Why are the models so bad? Until we fully develop quantum computing its impossible to handle the amount of calculations necessary to handle long range forecasting. I’m sure we will get there one day, but that’s decades away. Heat island was in full effect this morning, icy car when I left Lynbrook for work at 5, almost feels warm in the city in comparison. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Exciting times ahead....I wonder how the winters usually go when we get an SSW this early? Happy Thanksgiving !!!! Happy Thanksgiving December SSW could, theoretically, offer up a -AO winter. Instead of when it happens in February and spring is ruined. We'll see what happens. Many question marks but really interesting. I remember reading somewhere how, should one occur, la nina and WQBO favors downward coupling too. Having trouble finding that paper right now though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Why are the models so bad? Very fast Pacific Jet with a storm cutting through the lakes every few days into early December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Very fast Pacific Jet with a storm cutting through the lakes every few days into early December. Just a few days ago every Monday had a strong storm possibly undergoing rapid deepening. Literally every model plus ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Very fast Pacific Jet with a storm cutting through the lakes every few days into early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Just a few days ago every Monday had a strong storm possibly undergoing rapid deepening. Literally every model plus ensembles We went from a record -EPO +PNA to a +EPO -PNA in just a few days. So models have a had time figuring out the individual shortwave details. Plus we are getting a 5 sigma Pacific Jet near Alaska. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 58° The remainder of November will be generally milder than normal. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.1°; 15-Year: 51.3° Newark: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 52.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.8°; 15-Year: 53.1° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: We went from a record -EPO +PNA to a +EPO -PNA in just a few days. So models have a had time figuring out the individual shortwave details. Plus we are getting a 5 sigma Pacific Jet near Alaska. Flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 We went from a record -EPO +PNA to a +EPO -PNA in just a few days. So models have a had time figuring out the individual shortwave details. Plus we are getting a 5 sigma Pacific Jet near Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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