Nibor Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, North and West said: The grammar and spacing is always hard to get through on these forecasts. . What do mean ? ALEET ALEET 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. Most days will have highs of 50 or above for the remainder of November. Thank goodness. I started putting up Xmas lights this past weekend and it was uncomfortable to say the least. This upcoming mild spell comes at the right time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6. Even if it gets back to 6 it'll probably be January 1 by the time it happens...it looks likely we will be in 7 or 8 and probably nothing for awhile before any 6 happens again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: https://wxrisk.com/about-dec-2022-why-dt-wxrisk-thinks-it-will-be-snowy-and-cold/ DT is calling for a cold and snowy December in the east. Expect record warmth then.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Hopefully after the 5th we get into a better winter pattern. I do have concerns (like @bluewave) on if the pac will improve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully after the 5th we get into a better winter pattern. I do have concerns (like @bluewave) on if the pac will improve. Pac rules everything but give me a - epo anything with a negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Models increased the rain for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models increased the rain for Sunday Would have been nice two months ago sigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models increased the rain for Sunday They're speeding it up too. GFS and GGEM now show most of the rain saturday night rather than during the day sunday. Could be a decent 1 inch rainfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Gorgeous epo pattern on the gfs for early December 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Models have split La Niña forcing in in early December north of Australia and in South America. We would probably want the La Niña Aleutians ridge to push eastward in Mid-December to relax the Western Trough. Just a little ridging into the West can make a big difference if we can hold the -NAO. My once concern would be the ensemble mean over smoothing things this far out. When in reality the -pna is worst and -nao is weaker as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Models have split La Niña forcing in in early December north of Australia and in South America. We would probably want the La Niña Aleutians ridge to push eastward in Mid-December to relax the Western Trough. Just a little ridging into the West can make a big difference if we can hold the -NAO. Would love to see all that energy eject from the SW and spike the PNA behind it. The EPO is trying to kick but with a 3rd year LA Nina yet again, it appears the spacing is unfavorably modeled at this point. PAC problems persist through the first week of Dec IMO. With that said, it's a pretty nice gradient pattern. That would certainly produce chances for New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 31 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I agree with John. We must wait until the second week of Dec to see a big shift. It is showing up on ensembles with the SW trough muting in response to the PV being shunted into SE Canada. I have my eye on a major archambault style event the second week of Dec. A true wave breaking event based on recent ensemble guidance. Just hang tight folks, there are Legitimate signs of a PAC reshuffle being seen, something that has only been teased the past few winters but without any substance. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We would need the Alaska to Greenland ridge bridge to work out during Mid-December to have a shot at snowfall here. Some hints of that at the end of the GEFS run. Enough of a Greenland retrogression could allow the all important Rockies height rises to occur. IF, and it is a BIG IF this far out, that over the top ridge bridge works out then we could see winter weather of note. I'll add that it is the GFS and it is WAY out in time. If this vanishes or keeps getting pushed out in time, i.e. it is always two weeks away then it is not likely to evolve. Right now my expectations are muted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 27 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I agree with John. We must wait until the second week of Dec to see a big shift. It is showing up on ensembles with the SW trough muting in response to the PV being shunted into SE Canada. I have my eye on a major archambault style event the second week of Dec. A true wave breaking event based on recent ensemble guidance. Just hang tight folks, there are Legitimate signs of a PAC reshuffle being seen, something that has only been teased the past few winters but without any substance. I would agree with you and John that we will likely need to wait until mid-December to see snow chances. However, what I don't like heading into the winter is the persistent convection in MJO 5-7(which aren't the ideal phases for EC snow chances). You can see it on the OLR maps and the Velocity Potential time series which I'll attach here as a link: (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml#:~:text=Velocity potential anomalies are proportional,to be enhanced (suppressed).) With the Pacific modeled in the long range, it by itself will not produce wintry weather. However, the high latitude blocking and potential for a ridge bridge in the long range is encouraging, and will be necessary, if we don't push the Aleutians ridge into the PNA region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 I’ll take 50 and sunny the next 3 weeks while I deliver all your Christmas presents. I’m fine with mood flakes and an inch or two of snow after the 15th when all the cyber Monday stuff has long since been delivered. Let it rip and dump Boxing Day and beyond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Pac rules everything but give me a - epo anything with a negative NAO.Just keep in mind that MJO 8 in December, during a La Niña features a stout -PNA. Also features -AO/-NAO and -EPO/-WPO, which is good, but there probably will be troughing over the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Take away the EURO's PNA Ticket to the party and all the other TC's look good. Party Crasher: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Can we get a Pacific Jet extension and blast that ridge poleward? That would be fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Can we get a Pacific Jet extension and blast that ridge poleward? That would be fun. Nice looking pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice looking pattern In January that would work. It's tougher for us in December. That's better for New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: In January that would work. It's tougher for us in December. That's better for New England this is what the pattern evolves to. it's pretty loaded for everyone 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what the pattern evolves to. it's pretty loaded for everyone That is a nice look if it holds. Some shades of 2010 in there 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Nice looking tropics too on that run fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Milder air moved back into the region today. High temperatures rose into the lower 50s in many areas including: Atlantic City: 55° Islip: 51° New York City: 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 54° Tomorrow will see temperatures again top out in the 50s. The weekend could see some rainfall, along with continued mild readings. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -6.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.154 today. On November 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.105 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.995 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.9° (1.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, wdrag said: In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above. Yup! Thanks for posting this. Looks like a clear reflection of all the energy diving into the SW in the near to mid range. What are your thoughts as we move into the second week of Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 18z gefs looks good too fwiw. Ural Blocking looked really nice too. A bit earlier. Still interested in that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 53 today. Was very nice out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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