November 2022

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro pushed it back to Sunday 

looks like the GFS now.  About an inch of rain and not intense

[JetsPens87]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, same story with the 12z Euro. The wave breaker storm comes through now Sunday into Monday with strong winds and heavy rains. This pumps the -NAO block to start December. Unusually poor model performance with the system. It also looks like the -EPO block quickly tries to reload at the same time. 

 

 

 

To me forecasting in the medium range has always been about starting with the Pac. One look at the Pac and west coast and it raised huge red flags for me.

 

 

 

When you have an ugly Pac with similar problems as in the past few winters (lower heights and LP sitting by the Pac NW it only serves to roll that ridge over as shown on cureent guidance. This essentially traps that energy and hems it up in the SW, exactly what we don't want because then heights Flux in the East.

 

 

 

The 50 50 which is really not a helpful 50 50 here but I'll call it a 50 50 low, is too displaced to help alleviate some of that height Flux in between our threat and the 50 50. I had mentioned prior that if that feature were further SW then we could establish some confluence in New England and we would at worst be hoping for a SWFE trying to push that under.

It just strikes as an ugly setup and it appears to be getting uglier unfortunately if you are hoping for snow in the northeast. 

[EasternLI]

I mentioned that November could possibly hold more clues about winter. We're discussing the tropical aspects, which are very interesting in their own right. But there's still more to the story. 

It's also seemingly a month with persistent Urals blocking. The ensembles continue that theme until the end of the month. Here's the 5 day mean from the gefs for example. Plus 500mb obs from NOAA for the month so far. 

 

Why would that matter?

That needs to be watched because it has potential to force a December SSW. And that leaves open the possibility of a -AO winter. The following paper explains how that's possible. Another fascinating possibility to watch for.  We'll just add it to this year's list. It's getting pretty long. 

Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It’s still early for us to be looking for snow. Though that early December period historically has had some good events. But up north is prime time. Hopefully this doesn’t turn into an early grinch storm 

[jconsor]

45 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I mentioned that November could possibly hold more clues about winter. We're discussing the tropical aspects, which are very interesting in their own right. But there's still more to the story. 

It's also seemingly a month with persistent Urals blocking. The ensembles continue that theme until the end of the month. Here's the 5 day mean from the gefs for example. Plus 500mb obs from NOAA for the month so far. 

 

Why would that matter?

That needs to be watched because it has potential to force a December SSW. And that leaves open the possibility of a -AO winter. The following paper explains how that's possible. Another fascinating possibility to watch for.  We'll just add it to this year's list. It's getting pretty long. 

Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings

Great post! I was familiar with the impact of Urals blocking/ridging on cold air ejection into the eastern US 7-10 days later, but wasn't aware of the connection to subsequent winter SSWs.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

I can’t remember the last time that all 3 models were so different at 5 days out. The CMC and GFS squash the southern stream with no wave break to pump the -NAO into early December. The Euro and EPS have a more amplified southern stream storm resulting in a wave break and stronger -NAO into early December. There was a strong storm at the end of November 2020 causing a wave break which flipped the -NAO going into December with 60-70 mph gusts on Long Island. 
 

 

 

Which do you think will prove to be right, Chris? I see our locals are going with the several rainy days solution.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I mentioned that November could possibly hold more clues about winter. We're discussing the tropical aspects, which are very interesting in their own right. But there's still more to the story. 

It's also seemingly a month with persistent Urals blocking. The ensembles continue that theme until the end of the month. Here's the 5 day mean from the gefs for example. Plus 500mb obs from NOAA for the month so far. 

 

Why would that matter?

That needs to be watched because it has potential to force a December SSW. And that leaves open the possibility of a -AO winter. The following paper explains how that's possible. Another fascinating possibility to watch for.  We'll just add it to this year's list. It's getting pretty long. 

Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings

Isn't there a ridge in central Asia somewhere that correlates to blocking for us? I forget what it's called.

 

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't there a ridge in central Asia somewhere that correlates to blocking for us? I forget what it's called.

 

I think you're thinking about a Siberian high? If so, they're related. The GEFS is actually showing Siberian high pressure at that time for example. 

[donsutherland1]

Milder air will be moving into the region starting tomorrow. From midweek through the end of the month, temperatures will likely be generally above normal.

A moderate to significant rainfall is likely in coastal sections from Friday into Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +0.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.442 today.

On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.999 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.016 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I think you're thinking about a Siberian high? If so, they're related. The GEFS is actually showing Siberian high pressure at that time for example. 

Wow nice.... I think the one I was thinking of is called the Caspian Ridge, but Siberian Highs are nice too-- I believe the record for highest air pressure ever recorded on earth (32.00 inches) was actually set in Siberia?  It's the coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere so it shouldn't surprise anyone.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and noticeably milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 53°

The remainder of November will be generally warmer than normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 51.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.7°

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we finally get some Atlantic blocking from late November into early December. But a -PNA pattern develops with the La Niña. So more of a gradient pattern for us with New England having a better shot at early December snows. Looks like lows racing through the Great Lakes and redeveloping east of New England. Maybe we can get some Pacific improvement as we go into into Mid-December.

 

 

 

Isn't this a normal winter pattern though?  All winter patterns are gradient patterns, it just depends on where the frozen gradient sets up.

This is the kind of pattern I'd expect in over 50% of our winters.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and noticeably milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 53°

The remainder of November will be generally warmer than normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 51.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.7°

Looks like we will have highs in the 50s for over a week starting today, Don?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   46degs.(42/51) or +1.

Month to date is   52.3[+2.9].           Should be    50.6[+2.4] by the 30th.

Reached 41 here yesterday.

Today:     47-51, wind w., m. sunny, 40 tomorrow AM.

40*(53%RH) here at 6am.---basically 40* all night.      42* at 9am.     43* at 10am.     45* at 11am.       47* at 1pm.      49* at 2pm.      Reached 51* around 3pm+.      47* at 9pm.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our normal winter pattern since the 15-16 super El Niño has been a  warmer SE Ridge. Gradient patterns are colder north of the I-78 and I-80 over this period. So the storm track goes into the Great Lakes and the low redevelops east of New England. Before the record warming in the 15-16 winter, we could get colder and snowier DJF winter gradients like 2014 and 1994 where the gradient was to our south. The last time we had a good winter -PNA pattern for snow was February 2014. But all the winter -PNA gradient gradient patterns since 15-16 favored New England. So it’s tougher to get 4”+ or 6”+ snows here during a -PNA in a warmer climate. But in the colder years before 15-16 ,we could get better snows during a -PNA. We have needed March wavelengths for -PNA snows since the big warm up.

 

 

 

That explains our snowier March patterns very well....I wonder if this is a cyclic thing, because we had those snowy March patterns back in the 50s too, when March was our snowiest month.

You know how the old saying goes....

"If March is your snowiest month it means you haven't had much snow in the winter."

 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That explains our snowier March patterns very well....I wonder if this is a cyclic thing, because we had those snowy March patterns back in the 50s too, when March was our snowiest month.

You know how the old saying goes....

"If March is your snowiest month it means you haven't had much snow in the winter."

 

Except for 2015 and 2018 

I can be wrong, but I feel like gradient patterns tend to set up through long island sound, Central Park into 78.

I can remember countless snowstorms growing up where long island was rain/ice and coastal CT and Westchester County snow.

I would love to see LGA vs. Bronx snow totals in la Nina gradient patterns, but doubt the data for the Bronx exist.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we finally get some Atlantic blocking from late November into early December. But a -PNA pattern develops with the La Niña. So more of a gradient pattern for us with New England having a better shot at early December snows. Looks like lows racing through the Great Lakes and redeveloping east of New England. Maybe we can get some Pacific improvement as we go into into Mid-December.

 

 

 

Looks like a repeat of last winter

We need a major ENSO overhaul to get something different 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a repeat of last winter

Was just thinking that. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

NYC has only had 2 snowstorms of 4”+ in December since the 15-16 super El Niño. Both of them were strong +PNA-NAO in the 10 days leading up to the event. The dates were 12-17-20 with 10.5” and 12-10-17 at 4.6”.

 

 

Of course both being 2 of our 3 above average snowfall winters since 15/16.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a repeat of last winter

We need a major ENSO overhaul to get something different 

How can you say that this early ?  Even Coastal called you out in the SNE thread .

 

[snowman19]

Yeah, 2017 and 2020 were our snowiest Decembers in recent years with good +PNA -NAO -AO patterns. So we want to see some improvement on the Pacific side for above average NYC snowfall this year. But it’s still early since the reliable ensemble teleconnections only go into early December. 

With an entrenched La Niña this stout, you probably are not going to see any sustained +PNA. It’s going to keep defaulting back to RNA/-PNA

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

With an entrenched La Niña this stout, you probably are not going to see any sustained +PNA. It’s going to keep defaulting back to RNA/-PNA

We can always get +PNA intervals during a La Niña winter. This was the case through much of the 20-21 winter and January 22. But last winter we had the record -PNA reversal from December to January and the NAO didn’t play ball. So Long Island cashed in with record snows while the flow was too progressive west of NYC. 

[SnoSki14]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How can you say that this early ?  Even Coastal called you out in the SNE thread .

 

An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. 

The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6. 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. 

The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6. 

There are signs of blocking emerging during early December with the epo reloading.

This doesn't even look close to last winter.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Except for 2015 and 2018 

I can be wrong, but I feel like gradient patterns tend to set up through long island sound, Central Park into 78.

I can remember countless snowstorms growing up where long island was rain/ice and coastal CT and Westchester County snow.

I would love to see LGA vs. Bronx snow totals in la Nina gradient patterns, but doubt the data for the Bronx exist.

Those were two of my favorite winters-- 2014-15 reminded me of 1966-67!

2017-18 was displaced to later (March into April instead of February and March).  It's hard to imagine it hit 80 for some areas in February that year.

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can always get +PNA intervals during a La Niña winter. This was the case through much of the 20-21 winter and January 22. But last winter we had the record -PNA reversal from December to January and the NAO didn’t play ball. So Long Island cashed in with record snows while the flow was too progressive west of NYC. 

Yup and Atlantic City somehow cashed in too.

 

[MJO812]

https://wxrisk.com/about-dec-2022-why-dt-wxrisk-thinks-it-will-be-snowy-and-cold/

DT is calling for a cold and snowy December in the east. 

[gravitylover]

Again?  

[North and West]

https://wxrisk.com/about-dec-2022-why-dt-wxrisk-thinks-it-will-be-snowy-and-cold/
DT is calling for a cold and snowy December in the east. 

The grammar and spacing is always hard to get through on these forecasts.


.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like we will have highs in the 50s for over a week starting today, Don?

 

Yes. Most days will have highs of 50 or above for the remainder of November.