uofmiami Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 21 for the low at Muttontown & Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, EasternLI said: We watch, we wait. -NAO does have some support to be real this December for once. Due to actions taking place this month. We seem to be on a path less traveled this year. Should be interesting. Interesting if we could trace all this back to the blocking we had in October lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 19 for the low here. Forecasts were off by 6-7 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 21 the low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 25 the low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 16 in somerville and sussex Pretty cold For November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 The 0z Euro is the only model that has a big storm now for Friday into Saturday. The CMC and GFS keep the streams separate with a weaker northern stream low crossing the lakes. So they don’t have a wave break following the low. This looks like why the EPS has stronger blocking in early December and the other guidance is weaker. The blocking in early December may come down to how strong a storm we get later in the week. Very low skill forecast at this point. The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Interesting if we could trace all this back to the blocking we had in October lol That would be great. However there seems to be too much variance during October. Recent research suggests. November however, may hold many more clues. Recent research also points towards that being the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block . I can’t remember the last time that all 3 models were so different at 5 days out. The CMC and GFS squash the southern stream with no wave break to pump the -NAO into early December. The Euro and EPS have a more amplified southern stream storm resulting in a wave break and stronger -NAO into early December. There was a strong storm at the end of November 2020 causing a wave break which flipped the -NAO going into December with 60-70 mph gusts on Long Island. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 19.5, first teens since March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Arrived back and Down to brisk 19 last night which is coldest since March 28/29th. Warmup 11/22 - early next month. The coming weekend 11/25-26 looks showery for all of those Christmas decorators. Peak of the coming warm up 11/30 - 12/3? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 So basically it is not a fully phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: So basically it is not a fully phased system. The CMC went from a 959 mb low in New England on Saturday to a suppressed system and no storm in one run. Similar reversal on the GFS. The Euro seems to be slowly backing away from the stronger solution at 6z as the southern stream low lags behind. So this could be one of the worst model performances of the year so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 28 now, not sure the bottom. If Somerville hit 16, I’m guessing in that range. Chicken waterers are froze solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The 0z Euro is the only model that has a big storm now for Friday into Saturday. The CMC and GFS keep the streams separate with a weaker northern stream low crossing the lakes. So they don’t have a wave break following the low. This looks like why the EPS has stronger blocking in early December and the other guidance is weaker. The blocking in early December may come down to how strong a storm we get later in the week. Very low skill forecast at this point. The 06Z GEFS ultimately gets there 360-384 anyway, just takes a different path to do so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 bottomed out at 21 for a low, nice little cold shot for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Model performance has been awful. You really can't take any solution seriously past 3 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 44degs,(39/50) or maybe -1. Probability of an AN Winter has increased. Want to bet on an AN Winter around here you must now risk $1.76 to win $1.00---formerly it was $1.38. 77% for a Normal or AN Winter. Month to date is 53.2[+3.6]. Should be about 52.6[+2.4] by the 29th. Reached 42 yesterday at 1am, and a daytime high of 36 at 3pm. Today: 40-43, wind w.-breezy, m. sunny, 36 tomorrow AM. 30*(49%RH) here at 6am. 32* at 9am. 35* at Noon. 36* at 1pm. 40* at 2:30pm. Reached 43* at 4pm. 41* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 21 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The CMC went from a 959 mb low in New England on Saturday to a suppressed system and no storm in one run. Similar reversal on the GFS. The Euro seems to be slowly backing away from the stronger solution at 6z as the southern stream low lags behind. So this could be one of the worst model performances of the year so far. No storm this weekend is the likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Overnight low here was 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 GFS/CMC have bailed on the strong Friday low-now has a weak storm for Sunday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: GFS/CMC have bailed on the strong Friday low-now has a weak storm for Sunday... Looks like a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looks like a SWFE boring-I liked the big wound up windy rainstorm it had earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: boring-I liked the big wound up windy rainstorm it had earlier.... Same here That was far more exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 I have never seen such poor model performance. Curious to see what the 12z Euro does but I am leaning towards it going the way of the GFS/CMC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No storm this weekend is the likely outcome Excellent. We don’t need a 970 inland runner melting all the snow that fell up north. Great early start to the ski season. I’d be up but have work obligations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: I have never seen such poor model performance. Curious to see what the 12z Euro does but I am leaning towards it going the way of the GFS/CMC. Probably too many competing influences I'm just gonna use ensembles only and no Ops beyond 3 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 This could be the "models lose the storm in the midrange" theme too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This could be the "models lose the storm in the midrange" theme too... Euro pushed it back to Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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