November 2022

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    42degs.(37/47) or -3.

Month to date is   54.1[+4.4].        Should be   50.5[+2.1] by the 28th.

Starting next Wednesday do not be surprised if there are 5-10  50-Degree Days  leading into December 05.

Looking better today after Dec. 02:

Reached 41 here yesterday.

Today:    36-39, wind w.-breezy+, p. sunny, 28 tomorrow AM.

*High probably already occurred at 1am when it was 42.

35*(47%RH) here at 6am.       34* at 8am.       33* at 10am.       35* at 1pm.        Daytime high of 36* reached around 3:30pm.       33* at 8pm.       Finally a 32 here at 9pm, first 32 here.

[Rjay]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The strong winds broke the radiational cooling inversion so BNL jumped 10°+ in under 30 minutes.

 

 

Same thing happened by me around 230am

[JetsPens87]

Really needed/need the 50 50 further SW. Thats really it...without that there is no confluence over New England to prevent this from riding inland or the coast. There is too much high height potential in between our threat and the 50 50.

 

No mechanism to drive down cold air, and not much available with a somewhat ugly PAC. That ridge rolls over and you are only able to get a shallow cold air mass, can't establish an arctic fetch with that.

 

Could this change? Yes and it will, but I believe it's becoming more evident that this is an interior threat. But there will be a storm.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Really needed/need the 50 50 further SW. Thats really it...without that there is no confluence over New England to prevent this from riding inland or the coast. There is too much high height potential in between our threat and the 50 50.

 

No mechanism to drive down cold air, and not much available with a somewhat ugly PAC. That ridge rolls over and you are only able to get a shallow cold air mass, can't establish an arctic fetch with that.

 

Could this change? Yes and it will, but I believe it's becoming more evident that this is an interior threat. But there will be a storm.

All our major snows since 2011 in November and December have been during the first 20 days of both months. Plus we can throw in 2011 for the record snow in late October. There haven’t been any major snow events from 11-21 to 11-30 and 12-21 to 12-31.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 28 to Nov 20	Missing Count
2021-11-20	T	0
2020-11-20	0.0	0
2019-11-20	0.0	0
2018-11-20	6.4	0
2017-11-20	T	0
2016-11-20	T	0
2015-11-20	0.0	0
2014-11-20	T	0
2013-11-20	T	0
2012-11-20	4.7	0
2011-11-20	2.9	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30	Missing Count
2021-11-30	T	0
2020-11-30	0.0	0
2019-11-30	0.0	0
2018-11-30	T	0
2017-11-30	0.0	0
2016-11-30	0.0	0
2015-11-30	0.0	0
2014-11-30	0.2	0
2013-11-30	T	0
2012-11-30	T	0
2011-11-30	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 20	Missing Count
2021-12-20	T	0
2020-12-20	10.5	0
2019-12-20	2.5	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	7.0	0
2016-12-20	3.2	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	1.0	0
2013-12-20	8.6	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Dec 31	Missing Count
2021-12-31	0.2	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	T	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.7	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	T	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	0.4	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

[JetsPens87]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All our major snows since 2011 in November and December have been during the first 20 days of both months. Plus we can throw in 2011 for the record snow in late October. There haven’t been any major snow events from 11-21 to 11-30 and 12-21 to 12-31.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 28 to Nov 20	Missing Count
2021-11-20	T	0
2020-11-20	0.0	0
2019-11-20	0.0	0
2018-11-20	6.4	0
2017-11-20	T	0
2016-11-20	T	0
2015-11-20	0.0	0
2014-11-20	T	0
2013-11-20	T	0
2012-11-20	4.7	0
2011-11-20	2.9	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30	Missing Count
2021-11-30	T	0
2020-11-30	0.0	0
2019-11-30	0.0	0
2018-11-30	T	0
2017-11-30	0.0	0
2016-11-30	0.0	0
2015-11-30	0.0	0
2014-11-30	0.2	0
2013-11-30	T	0
2012-11-30	T	0
2011-11-30	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 20	Missing Count
2021-12-20	T	0
2020-12-20	10.5	0
2019-12-20	2.5	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	7.0	0
2016-12-20	3.2	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	1.0	0
2013-12-20	8.6	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Dec 31	Missing Count
2021-12-31	0.2	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	T	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.7	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	T	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	0.4	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

This is really interesting.  And I never really thought of it.

 

Of course there was the Halloween bomb, and son of sandy, but yes come to think of it...nothing sticks out in my mind for the second hf of November.

 

It really doesn't pickup again until the infamous Dec 5th date.

[EasternLI]

[donsutherland1]

After some additional intense lake effect snows last night and, continuing snowfall along Lake Ontario today, storm total snowfall amounts include:

Athol Springs: 76.0"
Buffalo: 36.9"
Derby: 81.4"
Hamburg: 77.3"
Orchard Park (1 NE): 80.0"
Watertown: 61.0"

Buffalo picked up 21.5" of snow yesterday. That was only its 6th daily snowfall of 20" or more on record since recordkeeping began in 1884. All such snowfalls have occurred since 1995. In addition 45% of Buffalo's top 20 daily snowfalls--including 15% this year--have occurred since 2000.

Tomorrow will be fair and unseasonably cold. However, by midweek, it will be turning milder. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely in coastal sections from Friday into Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +2.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.735 today.

On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.024 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.818 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

You have to be a college graduate to count all those 50's.         Looks like atmospheric punishment for the few cold days we enjoyed.

 

[the_other_guy]

50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

You have to be a college graduate to count all those 50's.         Looks like atmospheric punishment for the few cold days we enjoyed.

 

Well…the normal high this week is around 50 give or take.

 

This weather has been absolutely brutal and well below normal

[JerseyWx]

Might be first teens tonight.  28 currently.

This stretch through Thanksgiving looks great.

[psv88]

28 here. Looks like the park finally below 32 at 31. 

[MJO812]

First time below freezing here in south Brooklyn

 

29 degrees

[dmillz25]

Down to 26 here. First 20s of the season 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, dWave said:

Got down to 33 this morning. NWS says it's officially all over tonight with a hard freeze even in the most urbanized areas. Peppers still growing here.

 

615 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

... FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... 

* WHAT, Sub - freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.

* WHERE, In New Jersey, Hudson County. In New York, New York  (Manhattan), Bronx, Richmond (Staten Island), Kings  (Brooklyn), Northern Queens, Southern Queens and Southern  Nassau Counties.

* WHEN, From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS, Frost and freeze conditions will kill sensitive  vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS, The growing season will be coming to an  end for these areas Monday November 21, and Frost Advisories  and Freeze Warnings will no longer be issued for this season  after Monday.

Yes, it's going to be a real hard freeze tonight (temperature at 28 or below).  Last time this happened was March 30-- so the growing season ends tonight.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After some additional intense lake effect snows last night and, continuing snowfall along Lake Ontario today, storm total snowfall amounts include:

Athol Springs: 76.0"
Buffalo: 36.9"
Derby: 81.4"
Hamburg: 77.3"
Orchard Park (1 NE): 80.0"
Watertown: 61.0"

Buffalo picked up 21.5" of snow yesterday. That was only its 6th daily snowfall of 20" or more on record since recordkeeping began in 1884. All such snowfalls have occurred since 1995. In addition 45% of Buffalo's top 20 daily snowfalls--including 15% this year--have occurred since 2000.

Tomorrow will be fair and unseasonably cold. However, by midweek, it will be turning milder. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely in coastal sections from Friday into Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +2.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.735 today.

On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.024 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.818 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

I had to do a double take-- 85% chance of a warmer than normal November after how historically cold it was lol.  I guess it doesn't take much to wipe out a historically cold departure the first half of the month?

And wow those 80 inch plus totals, are those the finals totals from this event?  Has to be at least a couple of state records in there-- at least for 24 hour totals?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

This is really interesting.  And I never really thought of it.

 

Of course there was the Halloween bomb, and son of sandy, but yes come to think of it...nothing sticks out in my mind for the second hf of November.

 

It really doesn't pickup again until the infamous Dec 5th date.

well major snow in November is rare anyway and for the second half of November the only thing I remember offhand is the historic Thanksgiving 1989 snowstorm that dumped double digits on Long Island.

What a dry and powdery snow that was with temps in the twenties!

It stuck to the roads right away too.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Quite a storm next weekend on the Euro,CMC, and GFS. All 3 models have near record low pressure  in New England for the month of November. So this would mean heavy downpours for our area with a possibly damaging sting jet and gusts over 60 mph.

 

any tropical or subtropical connection with this, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the JMA seasonal is going for this look in December. MJO 5-6 La Niña standing wave combined with MJO 8-1 region forcing in South America creating a -NAO pattern. While these seasonal outlooks usually aren’t the most reliable, the EPS has the -NAO to at least start December. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the month turns out.

 

 

 

Based on the statistics you quoted, we'd better get snow in the first three weeks of December since the last 10 days have been pretty poor over the past decade.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, forcing over South America is more in the MJO 8-1 region favoring a -NAO. So if I it’s strong enough, it can push back against a more hostile MJO phase 6. We saw something like this during the December 2010 La Niña. The Pacific was very hostile for the first 25 days of the month with the La Niña and Maritime Continent MJO 5-6 region forcing. While December 2010 blocking was historic, even a slight improvement on the Atlantic side can try to mute the influence of a more hostile Pacific. So we may start December with competing influences and whichever is stronger winning out. 
 

 

Didn't we have this in December in 2020 too?  Something that both December 2010 and December 2020 had in common is that both were la ninas after el ninos, so that may have been a big influence on the high snowfall totals in those 2 la nina winters.  Seems like we need either that or a major SSW event like we saw midwinter in 2018 to get big snows in La Nina winters.  I saw that an SSW like that might be possible later on in December?

 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

22F

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I had to do a double take-- 85% chance of a warmer than normal November after how historically cold it was lol.  I guess it doesn't take much to wipe out a historically cold departure the first half of the month?

And wow those 80 inch plus totals, are those the finals totals from this event?  Has to be at least a couple of state records in there-- at least for 24 hour totals?

 

The record warm start to November all but sealed the overall monthly anomaly.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny, breezy, and cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 44°

Temperatures will begin to moderate tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.0°

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The record warm start to November all but sealed the overall monthly anomaly.

Yes, that was some first week lol.  It wasn't historically cold in October by any means but it felt like it with the way recent Octobers have been.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny, breezy, and cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 44°

Temperatures will begin to moderate tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.0°

Don, lows in the 20s throughout the area?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

any tropical or subtropical connection with this, Chris?

 

The 0z Euro is  the only model that has a big storm now for Friday into Saturday. The CMC and GFS keep the streams separate  with a weaker northern stream low crossing the lakes. So they don’t have a wave break following the low. This looks like why the EPS has stronger blocking in early December and the other guidance is weaker. The blocking in early December may come down to how strong a storm we get later in the week. Very low skill forecast at this point.

 

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, lows in the 20s throughout the area?

 

This morning, all of the NYC stations are in the 20s. 

[EasternLI]

We watch, we wait. -NAO does have some support to be real this December for once. Due to actions taking place this month. We seem to be on a path less traveled this year. Should be interesting. 

[Rjay]

23 was my low

[MJO812]

29 here

[Stormlover74]

16 in somerville and sussex