donsutherland1 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 At least three locations have now seen six feet of snow in western New York State: Orchard Park: 77.0" Hamburg: 73.7" Natural Bridge (3 SW): 72.3" Parts of the area could see another 4"-8" of snow overnight into tomorrow. From New York City to Philadelphia, tranquil weather will continue. However, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region by the end of the weekend. Afterward, generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +9.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.181 today. On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.819 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.695 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Gonna be another cold night. Already down to 29 here. Maybe my first low 20s tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 29 here as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 FOX down to 25 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 My area is under a freeze warning for tonight and tomorrow night. Meanwhile it went to 27 on the 15th and 25 last night and it is already down to 27 tonight. So why is my area still getting freeze warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 25 already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: 25 already. 40 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Down to 38 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 27 at my two stations already, Muttontown & Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Down to 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Buffalo back in the plume https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 down to 25F here already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 23. Jesus. Hello winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: 23. Jesus. Hello winter One degree colder than Buffalo where there's now 35"+ of snow at the airport (5" last hour). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: 23. Jesus. Hello winter 37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: One degree colder than Buffalo where there's now 35"+ of snow at the airport (5" last hour). You want consistent snow here, we need to build a large artificial lake to our NW. I wonder how deep and large it would have to be to double our seasonal snowfall totals? Has anyone done any calculations on that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: 37 here How is that even possible? It's supposed to be below freezing everywhere tonight. You must be measuring the temp near a subway station or grate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: At least three locations have now seen six feet of snow in western New York State: Orchard Park: 77.0" Hamburg: 73.7" Natural Bridge (3 SW): 72.3" Parts of the area could see another 4"-8" of snow overnight into tomorrow. From New York City to Philadelphia, tranquil weather will continue. However, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region by the end of the weekend. Afterward, generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +9.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.181 today. On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.819 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.695 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal). Don are these going to be considered statewide or even national records? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 22F here in the Berks this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Temp jumped from the 20’s up to 35 here. Windy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Cfa said: Temp jumped from the 20’s up to 35 here. Windy now. Yeh thats weird right? 31F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Yeh thats weird right? 31F now The strong winds broke the radiational cooling inversion so BNL jumped 10°+ in under 30 minutes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don are these going to be considered statewide or even national records? No. This is a big but not biggest LES event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: The strong winds broke the radiational cooling inversion so BNL jumped 10°+ in under 30 minutes. it's analogous to mixing. Last night was colder than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. A few areas could see a snow flurry. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 38° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 38° Colder than normal temperatures will continue until the middle of the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.6° Newark: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.4° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, forcing over South America is more in the MJO 8-1 region favoring a -NAO. So if I it’s strong enough, it can push back against a more hostile MJO phase 6. We saw something like this during the December 2010 La Niña. The Pacific was very hostile for the first 25 days of the month with the La Niña and Maritime Continent MJO 5-6 region forcing. While December 2010 blocking was historic, even a slight improvement on the Atlantic side can try to mute the influence of a more hostile Pacific. So we may start December with competing influences and whichever is stronger winning out. Exactly. It keeps it interesting to see what may happen. This is different than what we've seen recently too. The AAM charts posted by Matt Hugo on the main board are something I haven't seen in a long while. With -aam propagation poleward. Something that I remember HM talking about in regards to northern blocking years ago. Very interesting circumstances abound currently. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 On 11/19/2022 at 8:07 AM, LibertyBell said: This morning was our first freeze.... 31 degrees here (30.9) Got down to 33 this morning. NWS says it's officially all over tonight with a hard freeze even in the most urbanized areas. Peppers still growing here. 615 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 ... FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT, Sub - freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. * WHERE, In New Jersey, Hudson County. In New York, New York (Manhattan), Bronx, Richmond (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn), Northern Queens, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties. * WHEN, From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS, Frost and freeze conditions will kill sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS, The growing season will be coming to an end for these areas Monday November 21, and Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings will no longer be issued for this season after Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Yeah, the JMA seasonal is going for this look in December. MJO 5-6 La Niña standing wave combined with MJO 8-1 region forcing in South America creating a -NAO pattern. While these seasonal outlooks usually aren’t the most reliable, the EPS has the -NAO to at least start December. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the month turns out. . 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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