North and West Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 this is absolutely loaded everything is there for a significant storm: strong +PNA ridge, anticyclonic wave breaking in Canada forced by the -NAO, anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave can't really look any better a week out, let's see what happensHow much for Philly. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, North and West said: How much for Philly . Never enough. 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo. You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo. Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro. COD NEXRAD: BUF 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Let's do this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is absolutely loaded everything is there for a significant storm: strong +PNA ridge, anticyclonic wave breaking in Canada forced by the -NAO, anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave can't really look any better a week out, let's see what happens We need this a month from now. Seems like a wasted pattern for November. Kind of like blocking setting up in April. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: We need this a month from now. Seems like a wasted pattern for November. Kind of like blocking setting up in April. Ugh Getting into late November at least...the worst is when it sets up first week and then collapses around 11/30 and we get a torch Dec 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo. You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo. Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro. COD NEXRAD: BUF I’m riddled with jealousy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I’m just gonna pretend that I didn’t read the last couple of pages. Today felt colder than it actually was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cfa said: I’m just gonna pretend that I didn’t read the last couple of pages. Today felt colder than it actually was. Winter is coming my friend. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice storm signal next week on the models. The long range model forecasts show no signs of the blocking breaking down. Even if the storm next week doesn’t pan out, based on what the models are showing a -nao December looks likely. Im convinced we have a big December incoming based on this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Getting into late November at least...the worst is when it sets up first week and then collapses around 11/30 and we get a torch Dec That's true, feels like we sped towards Thanksgiving. We just have to hope that in an era of "stuck" patterns that this potentially favorable pattern becomes more than transient and lasts deep into December because with us being in Nina still, December might be our best shot at something significant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 GFS CONTROL seems to stop taking its medication around the time of the storm..................... Calling Nurse Hatchet uh uh I mean--Nurse Ratchet: Dig Those Crazy T's.............and they are out there dancing in their pajamas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, MANDA said: A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo. You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo. Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro. COD NEXRAD: BUF Check out the feature spinning into the northern part of lower Michigan… 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Let's do this . 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Check out the feature spinning into the northern part of lower Michigan… Very cool! I'm counting 3 distinct mesovortices. Dynamic atmosphere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Check out the feature spinning into the northern part of lower Michigan… Like the eye of a hurricane. Really neat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: SO JEALOUS! I gotta chase one of these events...one of the few things on my bucket list. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just now, MANDA said: SO JEALOUS! I gotta chase one of these events...one of the few things on my bucket list. I wish I lived there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 The 18z GFS abruptly lost the 50/50, but GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all look pretty sweet. Can't ask for too much more in mid November, 8+ days out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and blustery. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Afterward, the season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are again possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.118 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.755 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.752 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Great link to the Lake Effect snow up in Buffalo. This is a link to the traffic cams along I-190 in the city. You can see some areas that are experiencing whiteouts along the highway while other areas are up to one mile with the band in the distance. https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 hours ago, eduggs said: The 18z GFS abruptly lost the 50/50, but GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all look pretty sweet. Can't ask for too much more in mid November, 8+ days out. yeah, the EPS looks quite similar. the 18z GFS looks like a blip as of now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 00Z GFS has the 50/50 back maybe it will keep the clipper to our south. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 hours ago, ILoveWinter said: It's more about your reputation and the way you framed your post: It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again. Would it kill you to actually say there is at least a shot next week?! Anyway, someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this is the first real trackable period in November since 2018 with that storm that overperformed and where NYC was unprepared for snow removal. To be fair to Snowman he’s right, the La Niña is quite powerful and will likely be one of our main pattern drivers this winter. However, this doesn’t mean what he likes to imply. The storm track is shifted further north with Nina’s, which when combined with North Atlantic blocking eliminating the risk of cutters leads to a lot of Miller B nor’easters. In a moderate to strong nino with a big -NAO there is a much higher risk of suppression with congrats DC and Philly. That is not a concern, as it is more likely that an asteroid strikes my house and kills me tomorrow than it is for us to experience El Niño conditions this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, George001 said: To be fair to Snowman he’s right, the La Niña is quite powerful and will likely be one of our main pattern drivers this winter. However, this doesn’t mean what he likes to imply. The storm track is shifted further north with Nina’s, which when combined with North Atlantic blocking eliminating the risk of cutters leads to a lot of Miller B nor’easters. In a moderate to strong nino with a big -NAO there is a much higher risk of suppression with congrats DC and Philly. That is not a concern, as it is more likely that an asteroid strikes my house and kills me tomorrow than it is for us to experience El Niño conditions this winter. We've had quite a few La Ninas with average to above average snowfall totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 hours ago, kat5hurricane said: We need this a month from now. Seems like a wasted pattern for November. Kind of like blocking setting up in April. Ugh It can snow in both November and April-- we've seen 6"+ snowstorms in both months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 13 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Too early. The warm up in December will fuck us for the start of winter Snowing and absolutely winter-like in Detroit Depends on what you mean for the start of winter. For me winter starts on December 21st. We could easily get an end of November snowstorm and then it thaws for a couple of weeks in December and then we get cold again in the latter part of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Down to 33 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 35 with a freeze warning in effect, but will fall short of a freeze. Still coldest of the season so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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