November 2022

[MJO812]

Wow

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Occasionally, there's a very strong surge of warmth to the east of the low pressure. That's really impressive.

That brings in warmer air off the ocean, right, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

Hope it doesn't happen like the notorious heavy wet snow in October a few years back.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow first freeze wasn't until December in 2010?

When was the latest-- 2001?

Toronto's latest was 2004? That was a very cold and snowy winter.

The latest freeze in NYC was 12-22-98 and at LGA 1-4-16.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1998	03-23 (1998)	32	12-22 (1998)	22	273
2001	03-28 (2001)	30	12-16 (2001)	32	262
1948	04-04 (1948)	32	12-11 (1948)	31	250
2011	03-29 (2011)	31	12-10 (2011)	32	255
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2001	03-28 (2001)	31	12-23 (2001)	32	269
1998	03-22 (1998)	31	12-22 (1998)	24	274
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2011	03-29 (2011)	32	12-11 (2011)	31	256

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest freeze in NYC was 12-22-98 and at LGA 1-4-16.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1998	03-23 (1998)	32	12-22 (1998)	22	273
2001	03-28 (2001)	30	12-16 (2001)	32	262
1948	04-04 (1948)	32	12-11 (1948)	31	250
2011	03-29 (2011)	31	12-10 (2011)	32	255
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2001	03-28 (2001)	31	12-23 (2001)	32	269
1998	03-22 (1998)	31	12-22 (1998)	24	274
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2011	03-29 (2011)	32	12-11 (2011)	31	256

Was JFK's latest in 2001 Chris?

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was JFK's latest in 2001 Chris?

 

It was 12-17-83 at JFK and yesterday at ISP.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1983	03-30 (1983)	31	12-17 (1983)	31	261
1998	03-25 (1998)	31	12-14 (1998)	31	263
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	31	242
2009	03-25 (2009)	31	12-07 (2009)	31	256
2006	04-05 (2006)	32	12-04 (2006)	31	242

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2022	03-30 (2022)	25	11-15 (2022)	29	229
1984	04-10 (1984)	30	11-15 (1984)	29	218
2016	04-10 (2016)	32	11-14 (2016)	32	217
1994	04-23 (1994)	32	11-12 (1994)	32	202
1981	04-22 (1981)	32	11-12 (1981)	31	203
1977	04-11 (1977)	32	11-12 (1977)	32	214

[SnowGoose69]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hope it doesn't happen like the notorious heavy wet snow in October a few years back.

 

Trees mostly lost their leaves up there now so shouldn’t be a problem.  This may be their biggest event in November though since the November  20 2000 event  

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

39F.

How much snow didnt peeps get to the north?

Lot of precip, just curious how it all played out

Had light/moderate snow for about 4 hours then turned to rain around 10pm. Only got an inch mainly on colder surfaces most of which was gone by morning. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Trees mostly lost their leaves up there now so shouldn’t be a problem.  This may be their biggest event in November though since the November  20 2000 event  

That was also a third year la nina

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Trees mostly lost their leaves up there now so shouldn’t be a problem.  This may be their biggest event in November though since the November  20 2000 event  

I believe the 65” in 2014 was the greatest November event for east of Lake Erie. They have pure rocket fuel this time with the record 55° lake temperatures from the recent record warmth. The lake should be in the upper 40s by now. So it will just come down to how long the band stalls in any given location.

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Toronto just had their latest first freeze on record. But the first freeze this weekend in NYC will be around the average time since 2010. Islip tied their latest first freeze yesterday. Record -EPO will deliver the first widespread 20s of the season. Historic 500 mb heights near Alaska for this time of year. 

 

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		215
Mean	03-28		11-19		235
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-10 (2011)		255
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-23 (2013)	32	11-12 (2013)	31	233
2012	03-27 (2012)	30	11-06 (2012)	31	223
2011	03-29 (2011)	31	12-10 (2011)	32	255
2010	03-27 (2010)	29	12-04 (2010)	32	251

 

 

Those super (record) warm SSTs north of Australia is going to have a really profound effect on the global heat budget. The MJO/tropical forcing is going to want to continue to redevelop over and over in phases 4-6, in a positive feedback loop, basically a standing wave. The La Niña base state is only serving to re-enforce that even more 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs north of Australia is going to have a really profound effect on the global heat budget. The MJO/tropical forcing is going to want to continue to redevelop over and over in phases 4-6, in a positive feedback loop, basically a standing wave. The La Niña base state is only serving to re-enforce that even more 

The rapid expansion of the Western Pacific warm pool has been slowing the MJO in phases 5-7.

 

Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 10⁵ km² (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 10⁵ km²(the size of California) per year during 1981–2018

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That brings in warmer air off the ocean, right, Don?

 

Yes, but some areas see a stronger push of warmth. At 10 am, it was 62 at Montauk and  52 at Groton. Not far west of there, readings were in the 40s.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super (record) warm SSTs north of Australia is going to have a really profound effect on the global heat budget. The MJO/tropical forcing is going to want to continue to redevelop over and over in phases 4-6, in a positive feedback loop, basically a standing wave. The La Niña base state is only serving to re-enforce that even more 

That sounds like we might be headed to a semi permanent la nina state (at least until average temperatures get re-calibrated.)

However the enso response may be unconventional in terms of sensible weather because we are seeing major alterations in sea currents and SST in other parts of the world too (including the western Atlantic and the Gulf Stream.)

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That sounds like we might be headed to a semi permanent la nina state (at least until average temperatures get re-calibrated.)

However the enso response may be unconventional in terms of sensible weather because we are seeing major alterations in sea currents and SST in other parts of the world too (including the western Atlantic and the Gulf Stream.)

 

Yeah, we have entered a semi permanent La Niña background state since the super El Niño in 15-16 with giant La Niña ridges south of Alaska and along the East Coast. So the last 7 winters have all been warmer to record warm across the area. Snowfall has been modulated by how much blocking we get.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Haven't the IO temps been slowly dropping since the peak a few years ago (forgot the year where Australia had a lot of fires). 

[EastonSN+]

Yeah the La Nina background state has not been ideal since 2016. Kind of amazing we had 3 above normal snowfall winters in this timeframe (17/18 almost 200% of average IMBY). 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah the La Nina background state has not been ideal since 2016. Kind of amazing we had 3 above normal snowfall winters in this timeframe (17/18 almost 200% of average IMBY). 

One of our greatest snowstorms of all time in January 2016 occurred after the +13.3 December. This was followed by the snowiest March on record for Long Island in 2018 following the 80° at Newark in February. The 16-17 winter had record 60s warmth the day before the February blizzard. Last winter ACY was in the 60s the day before their record January snowfall. So warm winters can be great for snow if the blocking decides to show up between the record warmth. But we can always strikeout in the snowfall department like in 18-19 and 19-20 if there is no blocking.  But even both those years had record November and May snows. 

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of our greatest snowstorms of all time in January 2016 occurred after the +13.3 December. This was followed by the snowiest March on record for Long Island in 2018 following the 80° at Newark in February. The 16-17 winter had record 60s warmth the day before the February blizzard. Last winter ACY was in the 60s the day before their record January snowfall. So warm winters can be great for snow if the blocking decides to show up between the record warmth. But we can always strikeout in the snowfall department like in 18-19 and 19-20 if there is no blocking.  But even both those years had record November and May snows. 

Well we may have blocking in December this year which should help as long as the Pacific isn't a complete dumpster fire like last year

MJO going to 7 to end November and then slow down but there are some hints it could go to 8. 

[North and West]

We should go throw some ice cubes in the water on Bondi Beach.


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[Nibor]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

We should go throw some ice cubes in the water on Bondi Beach.


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[North and West]

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[gravitylover]

Maybe if that west Antarctica ice shelf breaks off we could tow it to the warm area? 

[jconsor]

On 11/15/2022 at 6:32 PM, bluewave said:

The big December climate shift occurred around 2011 following the epic run of cold and snowy Decembers from 2002 to 2010. The SSTs were much colder north of Australia back during those years. Also much more Atlantic blocking and colder SSTs east of our area. 
 

Since 2011, we had had the warmest run of Decembers on record. Plenty of MJO 5-6 forcing and a very +AO and +NAO pattern. Also notice the record warm pool east of New England. This record warm pool north of Australia had become a reoccurring theme. Notice the VP anomalies all focused in the 5-6 MJO region over the last decade.
 

 

 

As a follow-up to the climate shift you mentioned since around 2011, this is interesting:
 

 

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, jconsor said:

As a follow-up to the climate shift you mentioned since around 2011, this is interesting:
 

 

I wonder if the recent change to +AO/+NAO is related to the change in tropical forcing and west PAC warm pool (Ninas) we discussed earlier today with those super warm SSTs north of Australia the last several years

[North and West]

I believe the 65” in 2014 was the greatest November event for east of Lake Erie. They have pure rocket fuel this time with the record 55° lake temperatures from the recent record warmth. The lake should be in the upper 40s by now. So it will just come down to how long the band stalls in any given location.
 
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[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably will need a big enough Great Lakes system around Thanksgiving for a decent wave break to pump the Greenland block into early December. Then it comes down to whether the Pacific wants to play ball or not. It’s been a challenge getting a favorable Pacific during our Atlantic blocking intervals since last winter. 
 

 

 

Yes possible big rain storm around thanksgiving with very warm temps

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yes possible big rain storm around thanksgiving with very warm temps

Depends on if blocking develops.  NAO will be negative .

[s2sailorlis]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

 born and raised in Buffalo.   if they can keep it under 3 feet they'll be fine!    was there for the Blizzard of '77.

go Bills!  lol.  

[qg_omega]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Depends on if blocking develops.  NAO will be negative .