Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 39 with cold rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 It's been light to moderate snow for a while now, sticking on most surfaces with some slushy buildup along the sides of the streets too. 32-35° around the area so it's just a matter of time before the roads get slick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 31 w/ snow 1.5” otg. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 31.8 and rain. Won't take much more of a drop to create an icy mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Wantage NJ 4 sw or 8S of High Point: first snow and sleet of the season that we all notice in nw NJ. IP- began 5P. to snow ~530P changed to sleet and freezing rain around 730PM. 0.7" solid snow cover on most everything except slight slushy spots on pavement here and there. That might be my final for the night. 31F here at 740', originally posted 809P. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 44 in Jamaica but 39 in Flushing. Still plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 41, nasty cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 32 with light/moderate snow. Nearly an inch on colder surfaces and just some slush on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Over the past 20 minutes, light snow has transitioned to light rain at Poughkeepsie. Meanwhile, a cold rain was continuing to fall in Newark and New York City. A storm will bring a cold rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Albany could pick up 1"-3". Following the storm,temperatures will remain below normal. The season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the weekend. Beyond that, the cold will continue into at least early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +15.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.415 today. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.510 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.557 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 44 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 38 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 41 here, .48 inch of rain. Northeast wind getting busy gusting to 24mph. Nasty night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I have no way of knowing this officially but seems windier than forecasted or, even, what’s reported by NWS. Nothing crazy, but I’ve had a few strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 .70 for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Started out as some wet flakes and sleet, but changed over to plain rain pretty quick. About .60" here and 37 currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will break during the late morning or afternoon and the remainder of the day will be partly sunny. It will be briefly milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Clouds will break during the late morning or afternoon and the remainder of the day will be partly sunny. It will be briefly milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7° Temps along Fire Island and on the east end have already jumped into the mid to upper 50s this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 39F. How much snow didnt peeps get to the north? Lot of precip, just curious how it all played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Lake effect snow warning for Buffalo 2-3 feet with 4 possible if the band is slower to move I will be watching the webcam from there 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/44) or -7. Month to date is 57.9[+7.6]. Should be 51.4[+2.6] by the 24th. GFS with some warm breaks and say the 50's to start December---Boo! Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 45-48, wind n. to w.-breezy early, clouds-breaks, 37 tomorrow AM. 44*(99%RH) here at 6am. 43* at 7am. 42* at 7:30am. 47* at 11am. 48* at Noon. 50* at 2pm. Reached 51* at 2:30PM. 46* at 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lake effect snow warning for Buffalo 2-3 feet with 4 possible if the band is slower to move I will be watching the webcam from there Should be interesting. Watertown NY area also. One thing that might keep accumulations down a little is the temperatures which will be around 30. The snow will be more wet than dry, like a December or January Lake Effect. If they get numerous feet of wet snow, could be bad for roofs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Toronto just had their latest first freeze on record. But the first freeze this weekend in NYC will be around the average time since 2010. Islip tied their latest first freeze yesterday. Record -EPO will deliver the first widespread 20s of the season. Historic 500 mb heights near Alaska for this time of year. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215 Mean 03-28 11-19 235 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Storm total rainfall so far of 0.98" Current temp 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 8 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Started out as some wet flakes and sleet, but changed over to plain rain pretty quick. About .60" here and 37 currently. Yup same , lasted about an hr then rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Storm total rainfall so far of 0.98" Current temp 42 .98 here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 .65” of rain. lowest i got down to was 35. had some sleet pellets early on but it was short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Tatamy said: Temps along Fire Island and on the east end have already jumped into the mid to upper 50s this morning. Occasionally, there's a very strong surge of warmth to the east of the low pressure. That's really impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/3/2022 at 10:40 AM, donsutherland1 said: The latest guidance reaffirms that the region will see among its warmest to perhaps warmest opening week of November. After the warmth peaks on Sunday/Monday, there could be another bump up in temperatures later next week before readings head toward more seasonable levels. Meanwhile, frigid air will move into and cover much of western Canada and parts of the western United States starting this weekend. The question concerns whether that colder air will push into the East producing a meaningful period of below normal readings or whether only pieces of the cold will occasionally move into the East followed by a rebound in temperatures. Whether Atlantic blocking develops could be crucial. With lengthening wave lengths, AO-/NAO- patterns can produce sustained cold. At present, the AO is forecast to remain positive through mid-month. However, if one looks at statistical outcomes following past cases of a strong polar vortex to conclude October (AO +2.000 or above), there has been a tendency for blocking to develop in late November. If Atlantic blocking develops, a colder regime could begin to develop for the last week of the month. As perhaps a hint, the week 3-4 CFSv2 forecasts have turned cooler from those of yesterday--not cold, but cooler. The ECWMF weeklies that come out today could provide further insight. Given limitations of extended forecasting timeframes, any long-term blocking is considered only a possibility at present, as it has developed in past cases when late October polar vortexes weakened. Overall, even if colder weather develops, the month will wind up warmer than normal overall. Should the blocking fail to develop, overall monthly temperatures could challenge record warm values. Update: 11/16/2022 AO: +0.305 Strong model consensus for a period of Atlantic blocking now exists. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Toronto just had their latest first freeze on record. But the first freeze this weekend in NYC will be around the average time since 2010. Islip tied their latest first freeze yesterday. Record -EPO will deliver the first widespread 20s of the season. Historic 500 mb heights near Alaska for this time of year. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215 Mean 03-28 11-19 235 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 Wow first freeze wasn't until December in 2010? When was the latest-- 2001? Toronto's latest was 2004? That was a very cold and snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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