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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Wantage NJ 4 sw or 8S of High Point:  first snow and sleet of the season that we all notice in nw NJ. IP- began 5P. to snow ~530P changed to sleet and freezing rain around 730PM. 0.7" solid snow cover on most everything except slight slushy spots on pavement here and there. That might be my final for the night. 31F here at 740', originally posted 809P.

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Over the past 20 minutes, light snow has transitioned to light rain at Poughkeepsie. Meanwhile, a cold rain was continuing to fall in Newark and New York City.

A storm will bring a cold rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Albany could pick up 1"-3".

Following the storm,temperatures will remain below normal. The season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the weekend.

Beyond that, the cold will continue into at least early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +15.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.415 today.

On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.510 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.557 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds will break during the late morning or afternoon and the remainder of the day will be partly sunny. It will be briefly milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7°

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29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will break during the late morning or afternoon and the remainder of the day will be partly sunny. It will be briefly milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7°

Temps along Fire Island and on the east end have already jumped into the mid to upper 50s this morning.

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The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/44) or -7.

Month to date is   57.9[+7.6].         Should be  51.4[+2.6] by the 24th.

GFS with some warm breaks and say the 50's to start December---Boo!

1668578400-taKywL0Y2TM.png

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:    45-48, wind n. to w.-breezy early, clouds-breaks, 37 tomorrow AM.

44*(99%RH) here at 6am.        43* at 7am.     42* at 7:30am.       47* at 11am.       48* at Noon.      50* at 2pm.   Reached 51* at 2:30PM.     46* at 6pm.

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27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lake effect snow warning for Buffalo

2-3 feet with 4 possible if the band is slower to move

I will be watching the webcam from there 

Should be interesting. Watertown NY area also. One thing that might keep accumulations down a little is the temperatures which will be around 30. The snow will be more wet than dry, like a December or January Lake Effect. If they get numerous feet of wet snow, could be bad for roofs.

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Toronto just had their latest first freeze on record. But the first freeze this weekend in NYC will be around the average time since 2010. Islip tied their latest first freeze yesterday. Record -EPO will deliver the first widespread 20s of the season. Historic 500 mb heights near Alaska for this time of year. 

 

73DC3CD9-8774-4704-93D5-181E0FD575A3.png.ccb5ebad849b2603baea9c973b4f9311.png

 


 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215
Mean 03-28 11-19 235
Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255
2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233
2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243
2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234
2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251



 

 

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On 11/3/2022 at 10:40 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The latest guidance reaffirms that the region will see among its warmest to perhaps warmest opening week of November. After the warmth peaks on Sunday/Monday, there could be another bump up in temperatures later next week before readings head toward more seasonable levels. Meanwhile, frigid air will move into and cover much of western Canada and parts of the western United States starting this weekend. The question concerns whether that colder air will push into the East producing a meaningful period of below normal readings or whether only pieces of the cold will occasionally move into the East followed by a rebound in temperatures.

Whether Atlantic blocking develops could be crucial. With lengthening wave lengths, AO-/NAO- patterns can produce sustained cold. At present, the AO is forecast to remain positive through mid-month. However, if one looks at statistical outcomes following past cases of a strong polar vortex to conclude October (AO +2.000 or above), there has been a tendency for blocking to develop in late November.

image.jpeg.54f1ad2c13b4eeb1990f1c3d178c4d29.jpeg

If Atlantic blocking develops, a colder regime could begin to develop for the last week of the month. As perhaps a hint, the week 3-4 CFSv2 forecasts have turned cooler from those of yesterday--not cold, but cooler. The ECWMF weeklies that come out today could provide further insight. Given limitations of extended forecasting timeframes, any long-term blocking is considered only a possibility at present, as it has developed in past cases when late October polar vortexes weakened.

Overall, even if colder weather develops, the month will wind up warmer than normal overall. Should the blocking fail to develop, overall monthly temperatures could challenge record warm values.

 

Update:

11/16/2022 AO: +0.305

Strong model consensus for a period of Atlantic blocking now exists.

image.jpeg.a26426821672826ce197599f9ffb3563.jpeg

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Toronto just had their latest first freeze on record. But the first freeze this weekend in NYC will be around the average time since 2010. Islip tied their latest first freeze yesterday. Record -EPO will deliver the first widespread 20s of the season. Historic 500 mb heights near Alaska for this time of year. 

 

73DC3CD9-8774-4704-93D5-181E0FD575A3.png.ccb5ebad849b2603baea9c973b4f9311.png

 


 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215
Mean 03-28 11-19 235
Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255
2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233
2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243
2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234
2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251



 

 

Wow first freeze wasn't until December in 2010?

When was the latest-- 2001?

Toronto's latest was 2004? That was a very cold and snowy winter.

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