bluewave Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Those very warm waters north of Australia are concerning and here’s why: The big December climate shift occurred around 2011 following the epic run of cold and snowy Decembers from 2002 to 2010. The SSTs were much colder north of Australia back during those years. Also much more Atlantic blocking and colder SSTs east of our area. Since 2011, we had had the warmest run of Decembers on record. Plenty of MJO 5-6 forcing and a very +AO and +NAO pattern. Also notice the record warm pool east of New England. This record warm pool north of Australia had become a reoccurring theme. Notice the VP anomalies all focused in the 5-6 MJO region over the last decade. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Low temp of 27 here. The plants in the vegetable garden finally got finished off. I enjoyed the extended growing season, but it was time. The ragweed pollen was still hanging in there at a low level, so I'm glad we finally got the freeze to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Looking good for December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The big December climate shift occurred around 2011 following the epic run of cold and snowy Decembers from 2002 to 2010. The SSTs were much colder north of Australia back during those years. Also much more Atlantic blocking and colder SSTs east of our area. Since 2011, we had had the warmest run of Decembers on record. Plenty of MJO 5-6 forcing and a very +AO and +NAO pattern. Also notice the record warm pool east of New England. This record warm pool north of Australia had become a reoccurring theme. Notice the VP anomalies all focused in the 5-6 MJO region over the last decade. Thanks for this. Both decades (2000 onwards) were amazing for snowfall which is incredible given the vast difference in the water temps in that region. Obviously 2000 to 2010 was more blocking and 2010 to 2021 was more EPO occasional SSWE driven. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 My wife just reported flurries in Garwood NJ?! (cental Union county) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks for this. Both decades (2000 onwards) were amazing for snowfall which is incredible given the vast difference in the water temps in that region. Obviously 2000 to 2010 was more blocking and 2010 to 2021 was more EPO occasional SSWE driven. The average December snowfall in NYC declined from 9.4” to 3.1”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 9.4 9.4 2002 11.0 11.0 2003 19.8 19.8 2004 3.0 3.0 2005 9.7 9.7 2006 0.0 0.0 2007 2.9 2.9 2008 6.0 6.0 2009 12.4 12.4 2010 20.1 20.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 3.1 3.1 2011 0.0 0.0 2012 0.4 0.4 2013 8.6 8.6 2014 1.0 1.0 2015 T T 2016 3.2 3.2 2017 7.7 7.7 2018 T T 2019 2.5 2.5 2020 10.5 10.5 2021 0.2 0.2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: The average December snowfall in NYC declined from 9.4” to 3.1”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 9.4 9.4 2002 11.0 11.0 2003 19.8 19.8 2004 3.0 3.0 2005 9.7 9.7 2006 0.0 0.0 2007 2.9 2.9 2008 6.0 6.0 2009 12.4 12.4 2010 20.1 20.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 3.1 3.1 2011 0.0 0.0 2012 0.4 0.4 2013 8.6 8.6 2014 1.0 1.0 2015 T T 2016 3.2 3.2 2017 7.7 7.7 2018 T T 2019 2.5 2.5 2020 10.5 10.5 2021 0.2 0.2 Ah sorry I went whole winter missed that this was just December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 As was mentioned earlier, the Lake Effect is going to be in full force this weekend. With, apparently a WSW wind, the areas around Buffalo and Watertown seem to be in the bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Light rain mixed with ice pellets here. 40/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 1 hour ago, lee59 said: As was mentioned earlier, the Lake Effect is going to be in full force this weekend. With, apparently a WSW wind, the areas around Buffalo and Watertown seem to be in the bullseye. ...yeah..who's going to Buffalo this weekend.?..Euro has 18"..GFS has 2-3 feet..and oh yeah..the Bill's are home.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 35/22 gonna be a wintry night . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 I still have family in WNY. Going to be a big snow event. My brother started his snow blowers last night and topped them off with fresh fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Sleet falling. 37° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Sleet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Light snow/sleet mix. 35.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Mix of everything coming down, ice and snow with some plain rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 All snow now and sticking on all unpaved surfaces. 34° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Light snow/sleet mix. 35.4° Same thing here. Temp also 35.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 36 with sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Moderate snow falling. Starting to stick on roads and driveways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Wantage NJ 0.3" and 31 at 620P. Colder at High Point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Oh god, way too early for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Just light IP / R mixture. All surfaces just wet. Temperature 34.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: Oh god, way too early for snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Everything got quickly coated from a burst of heavy snow. Now it's a sleet and rain mixture. Temp 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 34 with moderate snow. Sticking on grass and cars but not pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Had a quick burst of snow which left a coating. Has now changed back to rain. 33/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Plain rain in Queens. Temp is 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 rain 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Light mostly sleet with snow mix now. Measured. 5" (Car top measurement) 31.8° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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