SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: About the same here. Has to be one of the warmest first 2 weeks of Nov that I can remember Pretty sure it is the warmest 1st two weeks of November or in the top 3 at least. Going from a +12 to +15 anomaly from November 1-12 to a -5 to -10 will be a major shock to many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Big changes are now evolving in the hemispheric weather pattern. A historic EPO block is forecast to develop. During November 15-16, the EPO is forecast to reach its lowest values on record. The extreme EPO block will set the stage for an extended period of colder than normal temperatures bringing an abrupt end to the exceptional warmth that has prevailed through the first 12 days of the month. The remnants of Hurricane Nicole tracked well to the north and west of the region today. Nicole's remnants swept unusually warm air northward producing near record and record warmth. Record high temperatures included: Albany: 71° (old record: 68°, 1909) Atlantic City: 72° (tied record set in 1964) Bangor: 68° (old record: 66°, 2012 and 2020) Binghamton: 66° (old record: 65°, 1964) Boston: 76° (tied record set in 1909) Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 67°, 2021) Burlington: 71° (old record: 70°, 2012) Houlton: 67° (old record: 63°, 2020) Islip: 72° (old record: 67°, 2014) Manchester: 74° (old record: 66°, 2012 and 2020) Nantucket: 69° (old record: 68°, 2014) New Haven: 75° (old record: 68°, 2021) New York City-JFK: 72° (old record: 66°, 2014 and 2021) New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2020 and tied in 2021) Newark: 74° (tied record set in 1938) Poughkeepsie: 72° (old record: 69°, 1964) Portland: 73° (old record: 66°, 1909) Westfield: 68° (old record: 65°, 2012 and 2014) Westhampton: 73° (old record: 66°, 2012) White Plains: 68° (old record: 65°, 2021) Wilmington, DE: 72° (teid record set in 1992) Following today's near record and record warmth in much of the area, numerous locations tied or extended their records for most 70° days in November. Records include: Albany: 4 days (tied record set in 1931 and tied in 2020) Atlantic City: 7 days (tied record set in 1953 and tied in 2020) Boston: 6 days (tied record set in 1927 and tied in 1990 and 2020) Bridgeport: 5 days (old record: 4 days, 1975) Caribou: 2 days (old record: 1 day, 2020) Hartford: 8 days (old record: 7 days, 1975 and 2020) Islip: 6 days (old record: 4 days, 1975) Manchester, NH: 7 days (tied record set in 2020) Nantucket: 3 days (old record: 2 days, 1971 and 1975) New Haven: 6 days (old record: 4 days, 1975) New York City-JFK: 6 days (old record: 5 days, 1975) Newark: 9 days (old record: 7 days, 1975 and 2020) Philadelphia: 10 days (old record: 9 days, 1975) Portland: 3 days (tied record set in 1953 and tied in 2020) Poughkeepsie: 7 days (old record: 6 days, 1975 and 2020) Providence: 7 days (old record: 6 days, 2020) Westfield, MA: 7 days (tied record set in 2020) Some daily rainfall records were set, as well. Locations included: Bangor: 1.15" (old record: 1.06", 1947) Caribou: 1.71" (old record: 1.20", 1946) November's "summer fling" is now coming to a decisive end. Much colder air will pour into the region tonight. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season tomorrow night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport (will be the 5th latest first occurrence) and Central Park (will tie 1946 as the 2nd latest first occurrence). Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through next week. In addition, a storm could bring a cold rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some interior sections could see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong. Its duration, should it develop, remains uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.409 today. On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.861 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.961 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.0° (2.0° above normal). 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Now the GFSens (along with the OP) is also getting Warm for the period after the 22nd: To me it looks like Europe is in trouble finally with the BN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 This was the warmest November 1-12 on record across the area by several degrees. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 56.2 2 2 1975-11-12 55.6 0 3 1938-11-12 54.0 0 4 2015-11-12 53.1 0 5 1935-11-12 52.7 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 58.4 0 2 1975-11-12 55.8 0 3 1994-11-12 55.0 1 4 2015-11-12 54.7 0 5 2020-11-12 53.0 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 58.3 2 2 2015-11-12 51.8 0 3 2020-11-12 50.7 0 4 2014-11-12 47.9 0 5 2008-11-12 47.6 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 58.3 0 2 1975-11-12 57.8 0 3 1935-11-12 56.7 0 4 1950-11-12 56.3 0 5 1948-11-12 55.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 62.2 0 2 1975-11-12 60.2 0 3 2015-11-12 58.2 0 4 1994-11-12 57.1 0 5 1974-11-12 56.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 59.2 0 2 1975-11-12 56.8 0 3 1977-11-12 55.4 0 4 2015-11-12 55.0 0 5 1974-11-12 54.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 59.1 0 2 1975-11-12 55.9 0 3 2020-11-12 52.7 0 4 2015-11-12 52.5 0 5 1948-11-12 52.3 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: 47 here with a cold rain falling. High of 70 yesterday before temps started to drop off late yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Morning thoughts… Early rain will give way to breaking clouds. It will become partly sunny and much cooler today. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 54.9° Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 56.8° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I still heard katydids last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 A freeze watch is up for southern Nassau but not southern Suffolk. I am glad to see northern Nassau is not included. Usually the NWS seems to put up advisories by county lines whether it makes sense or not. Regarding southern Suffolk is it because they don't think they will have a freeze or they believe, probably falsely, they have already had one. I believe the low so far at Islip is 36. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, lee59 said: A freeze watch is up for southern Nassau but not southern Suffolk. I am glad to see northern Nassau is not included. Usually the NWS seems to put up advisories by county lines whether it makes sense or not. Regarding southern Suffolk is it because they don't think they will have a freeze or they believe, probably falsely, they have already had one. I believe the low so far at Islip is 36. While it looks like Islip will eventually get their first freeze by next weekend, this will be one of the latest on record. Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, lee59 said: A freeze watch is up for southern Nassau but not southern Suffolk. I am glad to see northern Nassau is not included. Usually the NWS seems to put up advisories by county lines whether it makes sense or not. Regarding southern Suffolk is it because they don't think they will have a freeze or they believe, probably falsely, they have already had one. I believe the low so far at Islip is 36. Either way we all will have a hard freeze by the time the week is finished, the low is projected to be in the 20s Thursday night/Friday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: While it looks like Islip will eventually get their first freeze by next weekend, this will be one of the latest on record. Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 11/15 is their latest on record? This will beat that record. I thought 2001-2002 had our latest first freeze and our earliest last freeze? What a (non) winter that was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, tdp146 said: I still heard katydids last night Those were katydids? I thought they were birds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This was the warmest November 1-12 on record across the area by several degrees. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 56.2 2 2 1975-11-12 55.6 0 3 1938-11-12 54.0 0 4 2015-11-12 53.1 0 5 1935-11-12 52.7 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 58.4 0 2 1975-11-12 55.8 0 3 1994-11-12 55.0 1 4 2015-11-12 54.7 0 5 2020-11-12 53.0 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 58.3 2 2 2015-11-12 51.8 0 3 2020-11-12 50.7 0 4 2014-11-12 47.9 0 5 2008-11-12 47.6 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 58.3 0 2 1975-11-12 57.8 0 3 1935-11-12 56.7 0 4 1950-11-12 56.3 0 5 1948-11-12 55.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 62.2 0 2 1975-11-12 60.2 0 3 2015-11-12 58.2 0 4 1994-11-12 57.1 0 5 1974-11-12 56.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 59.2 0 2 1975-11-12 56.8 0 3 1977-11-12 55.4 0 4 2015-11-12 55.0 0 5 1974-11-12 54.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 12 Missing Count 1 2022-11-12 59.1 0 2 1975-11-12 55.9 0 3 2020-11-12 52.7 0 4 2015-11-12 52.5 0 5 1948-11-12 52.3 1 for NYC and the local airports too? JFK beat their record number of 70 degree highs in November already! Half of the first 12 days were over 70 and we had our latest ever 80! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(38/47) or -5. Month to date is 61.3[+10.5]. Should be 57.6[+4.3] by the 21st. Reached 71 here yesterday. Today: Falling T's 52>>>45 by sunset, wind nw.-breezy, clouds early, 38 tomorrow AM. (High was 63* at 1am)53*(85%RH) here at 6am, drizzle. 49* at 9am. 48* at 10am. 52* at Noon. 49* at 5pm. 45* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 We would probably be talking close to 6” of snow this week in NYC with this record -EPO block if we had the high pressure in New England like during mid-November 2018. https://www.weather.gov/okx/November15162018_Snow 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, lee59 said: A freeze watch is up for southern Nassau but not southern Suffolk. I am glad to see northern Nassau is not included. Usually the NWS seems to put up advisories by county lines whether it makes sense or not. Regarding southern Suffolk is it because they don't think they will have a freeze or they believe, probably falsely, they have already had one. I believe the low so far at Islip is 36. They’re not issuing anymore frost/freeze advisories outside of NYC, Hudson, and southern Nassau because the growing season “ended”, even though it largely didn’t for LI. My northern Suffolk basil bush is untouched and still blooming, the bees have been happy. No freeze yet, not even a hard frost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cfa said: They’re not issuing anymore frost/freeze advisories outside of NYC, Hudson, and southern Nassau because the growing season “ended”, even though it largely didn’t for LI. My northern Suffolk basil bush is untouched and still blooming, the bees have been happy. No freeze yet, not even a hard frost. We'll all have 20s for lows by the end of the week-- so not long to go for that hard freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 With high amplitude MJO expected to traverse phases 7-8 to start December and AO going negative odds are better than normal for a cold/snowy December Nina climo is also generally favorable for Dec as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 Year ago today. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/28caafb628624aeaa344c4ec06badcfd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 47 minutes ago, Cfa said: They’re not issuing anymore frost/freeze advisories outside of NYC, Hudson, and southern Nassau because the growing season “ended”, even though it largely didn’t for LI. My northern Suffolk basil bush is untouched and still blooming, the bees have been happy. No freeze yet, not even a hard frost. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/FrostFreeze/OKX_Frost_Freeze_22_handout.pdf they were extending the dates of the frost/freeze program. Here is a map of the extended dates. The city and southern Nassau have the same dates as coastal Virginia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, tdp146 said: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/FrostFreeze/OKX_Frost_Freeze_22_handout.pdf they were extending the dates of the frost/freeze program. Here is a map of the extended dates. The city and southern Nassau have the same dates as coastal Virginia. I understand southern Nassau may be a little more urban than southern Suffolk but not really that much especially western Suffolk. So I don't know why southern Suffolk is different especially far eastern Suffolk like Montauk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, lee59 said: I understand southern Nassau may be a little more urban than southern Suffolk but not really that much especially western Suffolk. So I don't know why southern Suffolk is different especially far eastern Suffolk like Montauk area. The only places on Long Island that have dropped below freezing so far, thus ending the growing season, are the pine barrens out east. Freeze warnings/watches, in my opinion, should be issued until we actually drop below 32. Not sure about Upton's reasoning since ISP and much of the island hasn't had a freeze yet. They have the city in a freeze watch, but it will likely stay above freezing in the city. With enough radiational cooling and calm winds, most of the island could see a freeze Monday night/Tuesday morning. Personally, I would have the whole island under a freeze watch, and exclude the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: The only places on Long Island that have dropped below freezing so far, thus ending the growing season, are the pine barrens out east. Freeze warnings/watches, in my opinion, should be issued until we actually drop below 32. Not sure about Upton's reasoning since ISP and much of the island hasn't had a freeze yet. They have the city in a freeze watch, but it will likely stay above freezing in the city. With enough radiational cooling and calm winds, most of the island could see a freeze Monday night/Tuesday morning. Personally, I would have the whole island under a freeze watch, and exclude the city. I think those frost /freeze products are really to keep farming interests aware of early season freezes. At a certain point, like by November, your harvest is finished anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: While it looks like Islip will eventually get their first freeze by next weekend, this will be one of the latest on record. Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 First frost in 1977 was late. Three months later was the Blizzard of '78. There's hope! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 4 hours ago, tdp146 said: I still heard katydids last night I thought I heard them here in Jersey, but I thought I was hearing things (again)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said: First frost in 1977 was late. Three months later was the Blizzard of '78. There's hope! LGA had their greatest snowstorm only a few weeks after their latest first freeze in January 2016. Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280 2001 03-28 (2001) 31 12-23 (2001) 32 269 1998 03-22 (1998) 31 12-22 (1998) 24 274 2021 04-02 (2021) 29 12-19 (2021) 31 260 2011 03-29 (2011) 32 12-11 (2011) 31 256 1948 04-10 (1948) 32 12-11 (1948) 32 244 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 28.2 2016-01-24 0 2 27.9 2016-01-23 0 3 25.4 2006-02-12 0 4 23.8 1996-01-08 0 5 23.3 2006-02-13 0 6 22.8 1947-12-27 0 7 22.2 1947-12-26 0 8 22.0 1983-02-12 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I thought I heard them here in Jersey, but I thought I was hearing things (again)... I've heard them as late as December in years without a fall freeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Very interesting It's a frozen mess near the coast 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I think Manhattan has their first snow, sometimes before their first freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 You know it's almost winter when Snowman19 is giving out weenies. 7 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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