Allsnow Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Probably the last day of the AC being on. The last few weeks we have been jumping back and forth. Next week going to be a shock to system as we have been living a charm life lately with these awesome temperatures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 JFK has now set a record for most 70-degree days in November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1.52" of Nicole enhanced rainfall. Kind of needed a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Think there's some warmup end of November or early December before next chill down. Looks like a high amplitude MJO passage into 7 which should ignite Atlantic blocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Early high temp of 67° at 5am now down to 59°. Temps should continue to steadily drop throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Rain was much needed, the daily brush fires were becoming obnoxious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Another 70+ day in November. Crazy Winds are stronger now than they were last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1.31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK has now set a record for most 70-degree days in November. The record high so far of 72° at Islip is the 6th day this month and a new high for November. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2022 6 18 2 1975 4 0 3 2020 3 0 - 1990 3 0 - 1974 3 0 4 2017 2 0 - 2015 2 0 - 1982 2 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 0.66”. 71 here. DP peaked at 68 yesterday and overnight. Soil temp is currently 65, it’s been in the 60’s since September 26th, with an average of 63.5 since then. Should fall off a cliff by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Ended up with 1.26 inches of rain yesterday and .04 today for a total of 1.30. Currently 70 degrees, my sixth 70+ day of the month. Winds have gusted to 25-30 but less than what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Looks like possible flakes or sleet Tue. evening, esp N&W of 287. It's too early for any confidence, but not too early to talk about it. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show wetbulb temps near freezing Tue. evening as precip. arrives. Entrenched cold, dry air between 850mb and 950mb could start things off frozen if it doesn't get too warm during the day. You never know what can happen - isolated parts of southern IL picked up several inches last night in an overperforming band... and now a few inches into IN this morning. It will obviously be harder to maintain a frozen column east of the mountains, near the Atlantic, but seeing flakes in November is always nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Finished with 1.25 inches of rain. Barometer bottomed out at 29.40 (995.6 mil) earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 The 12z GFS looks tasty for Friday. Unfortunately the 12z CMC and 0z EC squash the key southern s/w along the gulf coast. There's some potential if all the waves can align favorably. But the majority of ensembles are still against the wintry threat. It's still exciting to have something to halfheartedly track after a long hiatus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 The GFS Op the last few days has been insanely different Days 4-10 than the GEFS...the Op Euro and Canadian have mostly resembled their ensembles, but the GFS has not and has been very ridgy in the East...I wonder if its a product of the MJO phase interfering in the Op runs but the ensembles being able to see the -EPO more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the colder pattern will continue through Thanksgiving before the record -EPO relaxes. Big warmth from thanksgiving to early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Beautiful day. I’ll take this until the first winter storm please 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Beautiful day. I’ll take this until the first winter storm please Hard pass. These anomalies are ridiculous. It's like +15 right now. AC was running this morning because it was like 72/68 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: The week 3 forecasts have been very unreliable like we often see this time of year. The most recent week 3 forecast valid for the the coming week missed the big -EPO trough over the US. The early December forecast will probably come down to the MJO as we have often seen in recent years. Getting stuck in 6 would be milder but a progression into 7-8 would be colder. Plenty of time to monitor going forward. New run for this week Old week 3 forecast The cold next week was extremely well telegraphed a few weeks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Beautiful day. I’ll take this until the first winter storm please It's 71 degrees here right now. Another spectacular day. This has been the most beautiful first 12 days of November that I can ever remember. So many beautiful days with temps in the 70s. As you said, it's going to be a shock to the system with the much colder temps next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: The cold next week was extremely well telegraphed a few weeks out Not really…..gfs picked up on it first then the eps followed. It was a big bust when compared to what the models had to start the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 hours ago, eduggs said: Looks like possible flakes or sleet Tue. evening, esp N&W of 287. It's too early for any confidence, but not too early to talk about it. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show wetbulb temps near freezing Tue. evening as precip. arrives. Entrenched cold, dry air between 850mb and 950mb could start things off frozen if it doesn't get too warm during the day. You never know what can happen - isolated parts of southern IL picked up several inches last night in an overperforming band... and now a few inches into IN this morning. It will obviously be harder to maintain a frozen column east of the mountains, near the Atlantic, but seeing flakes in November is always nice. It might look like something like this from the 12z NAM: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Hearing Christmas music with temps in the 70’s is so odd. Even if temps were “normal” it’s still much too early for it in my opinion. High of 71. Currently 61 which is the low so far. I hope there’s more of this in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 I was about to bring the umbrella and chairs in… In the middle of November and I made the decision to keep them out. The truth is for better or worse our climate is warm so much at this point that I could see using them several days in Dec Jan and Feb…and using it almost full time from mid March on. Even this next shot of cold looks transient… In that I could already see that warm up towards the end of the month. 63F at 445p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Some scenes from what could be November 2022's last exceptionally warm day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 While we bask in this warmth, parts of the upper midwest are seeing night time lows near zero. By the end of the week it looks like nearly the entire country will be colder than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: The cold next week was extremely well telegraphed a few weeks out Really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: I was about to bring the umbrella and chairs in… In the middle of November and I made the decision to keep them out. The truth is for better or worse our climate is warm so much at this point that I could see using them several days in Dec Jan and Feb…and using it almost full time from mid March on. Even this next shot of cold looks transient… In that I could already see that warm up towards the end of the month. 63F at 445p Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: Probably the last day of the AC being on. The last few weeks we have been jumping back and forth. Next week going to be a shock to system as we have been living a charm life lately with these awesome temperatures My last a/c day was in September, but still haven't turned the heat on. Old record latest for turning our heat on was Nov 2012. I don't think that even counts as number 2 (no power after Sandy until just before the snowstorm) but we still beat it this year. Looks like we'll have to capitulate to the season by Monday. With this winters heating oil prices, wear a sweater if you come to visit. Briefly touched 71 here today, but was steady around 70 for several hours. 0.90" rain last night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: My last a/c day was in September, but still haven't turned the heat on. Old record latest for turning our heat on was Nov 2012. I don't think that even counts as number 2 (no power after Sandy until just before the snowstorm) but we still beat it this year. Looks like we'll have to capitulate to the season by Monday. With this winters heating oil prices, wear a sweater if you come to visit. Briefly touched 71 here today, but was steady around 70 for several hours. 0.90" rain last night. About the same here. Has to be one of the warmest first 2 weeks of Nov that I can remember 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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