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November 2022


Stormlover74
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK has now set a record for most 70-degree days in November.

The record high so far of 72° at Islip is the 6th day this month and a new high for November.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 2022 6 18
2 1975 4 0
3 2020 3 0
- 1990 3 0
- 1974 3 0
4 2017 2 0
- 2015 2 0
- 1982 2 0

 

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Looks like possible flakes or sleet Tue. evening, esp N&W of 287. It's too early for any confidence, but not too early to talk about it. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show wetbulb temps near freezing Tue. evening as precip. arrives. Entrenched cold, dry air between 850mb and 950mb could start things off frozen if it doesn't get too warm during the day.

You never know what can happen - isolated parts of southern IL picked up several inches last night in an overperforming band... and now a few inches into IN this morning. It will obviously be harder to maintain a frozen column east of the mountains, near the Atlantic, but seeing flakes in November is always nice.

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The 12z GFS looks tasty for Friday. Unfortunately the 12z CMC and 0z EC squash the key southern s/w along the gulf coast. There's some potential if all the waves can align favorably. But the majority of ensembles are still against the wintry threat. It's still exciting to have something to halfheartedly track after a long hiatus. 

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The GFS Op the last few days has been insanely different Days 4-10 than the GEFS...the Op Euro and Canadian have mostly resembled their ensembles, but the GFS has not and has been very ridgy in the East...I wonder if its a product of the MJO phase interfering in the Op runs but the ensembles being able to see the -EPO more 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The week 3 forecasts have been very unreliable like we often see this time of year. The most recent week 3 forecast valid for the the coming week missed the big -EPO trough over the US. The early December forecast will probably come down to the MJO as we have often seen in recent years. Getting stuck in 6 would be milder but a progression into 7-8 would be colder. Plenty of time to monitor going forward.

New run for this week

A0D70011-17BE-4761-968B-93CBDFFF4CEB.thumb.png.a95eddaae58207cceae047ca8ac4b385.png

 

Old week 3 forecast

 

7F76BB3B-D6D4-4CC7-A7EC-397FA68DCFEF.thumb.png.e5ce7f6946a1809dad49562e4f3f19e1.png

 

 

The cold next week was extremely well telegraphed a few weeks out

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Beautiful day. I’ll take this until the first winter storm please 

It's 71 degrees here right now. Another spectacular day. This has been the most beautiful first 12 days of November that I can ever remember. So many beautiful days with temps in the 70s. As you said, it's going to be a shock to the system with the much colder temps next week. 

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3 hours ago, eduggs said:

Looks like possible flakes or sleet Tue. evening, esp N&W of 287. It's too early for any confidence, but not too early to talk about it. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show wetbulb temps near freezing Tue. evening as precip. arrives. Entrenched cold, dry air between 850mb and 950mb could start things off frozen if it doesn't get too warm during the day.

You never know what can happen - isolated parts of southern IL picked up several inches last night in an overperforming band... and now a few inches into IN this morning. It will obviously be harder to maintain a frozen column east of the mountains, near the Atlantic, but seeing flakes in November is always nice.

It might look like something like this from the 12z NAM:

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

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I was about to bring the umbrella and chairs in… In the middle of November and I made the decision to keep them out.

The truth is for better or worse our climate is warm so much at this point that I could see using them several days in Dec Jan and Feb…and using it almost full time from mid March on.

 

Even this next shot of cold looks transient… In that I could already see that warm up towards the end of the month.

63F at 445p

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I was about to bring the umbrella and chairs in… In the middle of November and I made the decision to keep them out.

The truth is for better or worse our climate is warm so much at this point that I could see using them several days in Dec Jan and Feb…and using it almost full time from mid March on.

 

Even this next shot of cold looks transient… In that I could already see that warm up towards the end of the month.

63F at 445p

Correct 

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9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Probably the last day of the AC being on. The last few weeks we have been jumping back and forth. Next week going to be a shock to system as we have been living a charm life lately with these awesome temperatures 

My last a/c day was in September, but still haven't turned the heat on.  Old record latest for turning our heat on was Nov 2012.  I don't think that even counts as number 2 (no power after Sandy until just before the snowstorm) but we still beat it this year.  Looks like we'll have to capitulate to the season by Monday.

With this winters heating oil prices, wear a sweater if you come to visit.

Briefly touched 71 here today, but was steady around 70 for several hours.  0.90" rain last night.

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7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

My last a/c day was in September, but still haven't turned the heat on.  Old record latest for turning our heat on was Nov 2012.  I don't think that even counts as number 2 (no power after Sandy until just before the snowstorm) but we still beat it this year.  Looks like we'll have to capitulate to the season by Monday.

With this winters heating oil prices, wear a sweater if you come to visit.

Briefly touched 71 here today, but was steady around 70 for several hours.  0.90" rain last night.

About the same here.   Has to be one of the warmest first 2 weeks of Nov that I can remember

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