donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: We should probably develop our own custom teleconnection indices based on how anomalous the raw 500mb height anomalies are. I like using the NAEFS site for finding record minimums and maximums. Plus we can also use how many meters above and below the 500 mb heights are. The forecast for next week is showing up as a 5 sigma block near Alaska which would be a record for this time of year. I agree. It wouldn't be difficult to construct standardized values from the values provided on the PSL website. I have inquired as to whether the values shown on the site are ordinary values or whether they are already standardized just to be sure what the site is showing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. It wouldn't be difficult to construct standardized values from the values provided on the PSL website. I have inquired as to whether the values shown on the site are ordinary values or whether they are already standardized just to be sure what the site is showing. Yeah, we are going to need the record -EPO for parts of Long Island like Islip to get their first freeze. Islip is already in the top 5 latest without a freeze. So a continuation of needing record blocking just to get some colder temperatures around here. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 9 Missing Count 2022-11-09 36 0 Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 got down to 35 this morning, felt much colder than that. nice cold crisp morning! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 GFS with an interesting system on the 18th. Interior snows wouldn't surprise me. Also with record -EPO and Greenland blocking trending stronger I wouldn't be surprised to see the low end up further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 i have been enjoying wearing a winter coat after a brief warmup will enjoy continuing to wear on for the foreseeable future.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i have been enjoying wearing a winter coat after a brief warmup will enjoy continuing to wear on for the foreseeable future.. Winter coat? Come on hasn't been that cold at all yet. What the hell do you wear when it's below 30 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Winter coat? Come on hasn't been that cold at all yet. What the hell do you wear when it's below 30 One of those as seen on tv wearable snuggles 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we are going to need the record -EPO for parts of Long Island like Islip to get their first freeze. Islip is already in the top 5 latest without a freeze. So a continuation of needing record blocking just to get some colder temperatures around here. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 9 Missing Count 2022-11-09 36 0 Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 FYI, the numbers are not standardized as per PSL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Nov. 18 snow leaves City out. But Nov. 22 does not.................We have some protection from the south and overnight timing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Newark has reached 70 degrees today. That is the 7th such day this month, which ties the November record that was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Temperatures surged into the 60s and even reached 70° in parts of the region today. It was even warmer in the Great Lakes region. Milwaukee hit 77°, which broke the daily record and tied the monthly record. Alpena, MI reached 78°, which set a new November record. Farther west, the temperature was in the teens in Bismarck with heavy snow. Rain will overspread the area tomorrow as Nicole moves northward. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph. With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° tomorrow and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 7 70° days this month. That ties the November record, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which ties the November record set in 1975. Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +17.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.439 today. On November 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.241 (RMM). The November 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.612 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3° (2.3° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 69 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Beautiful. I can see EWR hitting 75 tomorrow; granted we get breaks of sun, which I think we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rain associated with Nicole will arrive late this morning or early this afternoon. Periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. The wind will also pick up, especially in coastal regions. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Rain will end. It will be very warm and windy with gusts as high as 50 mph in parts of the region. Much colder air will press into the region tomorrow night setting up an extended period with below normal temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.6°; 15-Year: 55.6° Newark: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 9 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: Beautiful. I can see EWR hitting 75 tomorrow; granted we get breaks of sun, which I think we will. I dont know about the sun. would need to happen this morning…and that wont help too much. The radar shows a wall of water moving in from late morning onward. Surprisingly, all the airports are starting off below 60F 53F here in Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Currently 54F here in HPN, tapped out at 64 for a high yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 More record heat next few days. The models have 70s right out onto Long Island on Saturday with a warm offshore flow. The record high of 67 at Islip looks easy to beat. Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2022-11-10 11/11 68 in 2020 66 in 1970 65 in 1974 11/12 67 in 2014 66 in 2021 66 in 2020+ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Sun trying to peak through. DPs racing up. Steamy. Looks like the island will stay dry for most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(45/55) or +2. Looking WARM again on the GFS OP, Ens. is still generally BN: Month to date is 60.8[+9.7]. Should be 56.0[+6.3] by the 19th. Reached 64 here yesterday. Today: 66-68, wind e. to s. to. w.-gusty by late PM-to 30mph., rain by 1pm till early tomorrow AM., 67 tomorrow AM. {Low was 60* at Midnight } 62*(92%RH) here at 6am. 64* at 9am. 66* at 11am. Down to 64* at Noon. 65* at 8pm. 66* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 My dog taking my daughter for a walk this morning before the rains move in. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 70/33 split yesterday, borderline extreme by our standards. Currently 66. Low was 49 at 1 AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 65 degrees here with on and off light showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Light drizzle now falling, currently 65F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Not sure what the NWS is seeing, but it looks like the bulk of the rain for today will be W of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Not sure what the NWS is seeing, but it looks like the bulk of the rain for today will be W of LI. Really? I’m just looking at the radar and I don’t get that impression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Really? I’m just looking at the radar and I don’t get that impression Yeah I’ll shut up now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Moderate rain here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Looks like the rain will get more showery in nature moving forward. Lots of breaks in the radar south of the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 What about the Giant squall line over Trenton headed right toward city? That looks like it means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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