Stormlover74 Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes and my heat turned on even though I have it set to 55 lol I don't believe any of the NYC airports or the park has gotten into the 30s have they? Looks like 40 so far at central park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 You know a tropical system is going by to our west from Friday into early Saturday when the dewpoints approach the all-time November high of 68° at places like Newark. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know a tropical system is going by to our west from Friday into early Saturday when the dewpoints approach the all-time November high of 68° at places like Newark. where do you make those graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 This Saturday event could be epic but perhaps a bit further west? I see strong chances of a phaser that drops a quick 4-6 inches of rain maybe in ePA and central upstate NY. Closer to 2" for NYC metro, peak wind gusts perhaps into 60s. If it tracks over western LI though then the NYC metro could get the 4-6" rains. There was a "snow hurricane" in autumn 1804, I don't think the air mass is quite cold enough to wrap around the phased storm that quickly here, in fact I see better chances of the actual final result being a lower Great Lakes phaser like Nov 1913 to some extent. The mid-latitude low was back in eastern UT last time I looked at maps, maybe it's into w CO now. Lots of cold air available, it's about -15 C in most of western Canada today. I have -5 C here and a fresh 8-10" snow cover, full on winter here after so many weeks of way above normal ending Oct 20th. We have not been above normal since then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: where do you make those graphs? https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=nov&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 If it stays clear and the mild air can hold off, this should be my coldest night. Already down to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night. Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph. With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975. Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night. Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph. With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975. Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal). Don I don't believe JFK has gotten into the 30s either-- the lowest low I could find for them was 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Already dropping into the upper 30s in the colder areas of Nassau and Suffolk. 41 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don I don't believe JFK has gotten into the 30s either-- the lowest low I could find for them was 40 degrees. It was 39 this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night. Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph. With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975. Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal). ABE looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking. The Euro painted that out this possibility about three days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW quadrant of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: ABE looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking. The Euro painted that out this possibility about three days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW quadrant of the storm. Forecast for the Poconos for next week is for 5-8" inches of snow....weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 My p&c says snow showers Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 For the record and nothing to do with today: I expected a sizable 1+" event within a period of Oct 31-Nov 5 or 6. It did not happen. EPS was far too robust and GEFS was much better with GEPS in between. Models still have lots and lots of uncertainty regarding qpf beyond 5 days though attempting to tell us something. Attached the meager numbers for the period in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be fair and warmer. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Rain from Nicole will arrive tomorrow. Thunderstorms are possible and it will be unseasonably warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9° Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Forecast for the Poconos for next week is for 5-8" inches of snow....weird. Very little support from the GEFS on this possible event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Very little support from the GEFS on this possible event so far. Which model is predicting that kind of snow? For around 2,000 ft in the Lake Harmony area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, wdrag said: For the record and nothing to do with today: I expected a sizable 1+" event within a period of Oct 31-Nov 5 or 6. It did not happen. EPS was far too robust and GEFS was much better with GEPS in between. Models still have lots and lots of uncertainty regarding qpf beyond 5 days though attempting to tell us something. Attached the meager numbers for the period in question. the warm weather was a nice break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Record -EPO blocking setting up for next week. So a much colder pattern with the first freeze of the season for many in the forecast. These -EPO patterns are usually fairly progressive. So the GFS looks overamped compared to the Euro and GEM. But the chance exists for the first flakes of the season for interior zones. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 8 hours ago, Albedoman said: ABE looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking. The Euro painted that out this possibility about three days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW quadrant of the storm. The potential for some snow/sleet clearly is there. Overnight, there was even a hint that at least a trace of wintry precipitation could even extend close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Record -EPO blocking setting up for next week. So a much colder pattern with the first freeze of the season for many in the forecast. These -EPO patterns are usually fairly progressive. So the GFS looks overamped compared to the Euro and GEM. But the chance exists for the first flakes of the season for interior zones. If the guidance verifies, this will be a historic EPO block. Both the EPS and GEFS show the EPO plunging to -5.000 or below for November 15-16. Below are the November and all-time records: November Record: -3.600, November 8, 1979 All-Time Record: -5.044, December 24, 1983 (only day on record with a -5.000 or below value) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: If the guidance verifies, this will be a historic EPO block. Both the EPS and GEFS show the EPO plunging to -5.000 or below for November 15-16. Below are the November and all-time records: November Record: -3.600, November 8, 1979 All-Time Record: -5.044, December 24, 1983 (only day on record with a -5.000 or below value) Don, where did you find those raw forecast EPO values? The EPO site stopped posting the official forecast numbers like they do with the other teleconnection indices. I was using the NAEFS 500 mb forecast heights which will be the highest since 1979 for the dates coming up. Old ESRL/PSD forecast site discontinued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don, where did you find those raw forecast EPO values? The EPO site stopped posting the official forecast numbers like they do with the other teleconnection indices. I was using the NAEFS 500 mb forecast heights which will be the highest since 1979 for the dates coming up. Old ESRL/PSD forecast site discontinued I found them here: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 12 hours ago, lee59 said: Already dropping into the upper 30s in the colder areas of Nassau and Suffolk. 41 here. What temp did you drop to? We held steady in western Suffolk despite the clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I made it down to 36 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(45/56) or +2. Month to date is 61.2[+9.9]. Should be 55.9[+6.1] by the 18th. Reached 55 here yesterday. (Low was 49* at 5am) 50*(73%RH) here at 6am. 55* at 9am. 57* at 11am. 59* at Noon. 61* at 1pm. 62* at 2pm. Reached 64* at 4pm. 9AM T's on Sat. Unfortunately it is quite windy and rainy near this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I found them here: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Right. They post the daily values but don’t issue forecasts anymore. So we have to go by extrapolating from the 500 mb heights or looking at the vendors custom forecast indices. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Right. They post the daily values but don’t issue forecasts anymore. So we have to go by extrapolating from the 500 mb heights or looking at the vendors custom forecast indices. Unfortunately, the once freely-available GEFS forecasts are now only available on vendor sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Unfortunately, the once freely-available GEFS forecasts are now only available on vendor sites. We should probably develop our own custom teleconnection indices based on how anomalous the raw 500mb height anomalies are. I like using the NAEFS site for finding record minimums and maximums. Plus we can also use how many meters above and below the 500 mb heights are. The forecast for next week is showing up as a 5 sigma block near Alaska which would be a record for this time of year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 NYC has yet to drop below 40 degrees so far this season. We will likely drop below 40 degrees on Monday (11/14), making this the second latest sub-40 degree reading on record Season First Value Missing Last Value Missing Difference 1938-1939 11-15 (1938) 37 0 04-18 (1939) 39 0 153 1946-1947 11-13 (1946) 38 0 05-10 (1947) 36 0 177 1977-1978 11-12 (1977) 37 0 05-01 (1978) 38 0 169 1916-1917 11-12 (1916) 38 0 05-04 (1917) 38 0 172 1994-1995 11-11 (1994) 38 0 04-10 (1995) 34 0 149 1898-1899 11-11 (1898) 38 0 04-17 (1899) 39 0 156 1961-1962 11-09 (1961) 35 0 04-17 (1962) 34 0 158 1943-1944 11-09 (1943) 38 0 04-15 (1944) 37 0 157 2019-2020 11-08 (2019) 29 0 05-10 (2020) 39 0 183 2017-2018 11-08 (2017) 39 0 04-21 (2018) 39 0 163 1955-1956 11-08 (1955) 38 0 05-17 (1956) 39 0 190 1971-1972 11-07 (1971) 34 0 04-26 (1972) 38 0 170 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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