November 2022

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ten years ago the high temperature at JFK Airport was 41°, as a snowstorm moved in. Today, summerlike warmth prevailed as the thermometer topped out at 80°.

Today's daily records included:

Athens, GA: 85° (old record: 84°, 2017)
Atlanta: 83° (old record: 79°, 2005 and 2017)
Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 77°, 2020)
Baltimore: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938, 1975, and 2020)
Bangor: 73° (old record: 71°, 2020)
Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record***
Caribou: 64° (old record: 63°, 1948)
Houlton, ME: 67° (old record: 66°, 1948 and 1975)
Islip: 80° (old record: 74°, 2020) ***New November Record***
Lynchburg: 84° (old record: 77°, 1965)
New Haven: 80° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record***
New Orleans: 90° (old record: 86°, 1986) ***New November Record; Latest 90° temperature on record***
New York City-JFK: 80° (old record: 73°, 2020)
New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Newark: 81° (old record: 78°, 1938)
Philadelphia: 79° (old record: 76°, 1938)
Poughkeepsie: 75° (tied record set in 2020)
Providence: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Raleigh: 84° (old record: 80°, 2008)
Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975)
Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Tallahassee: 88° (old record: 86°, 2003 and 2015)
Trenton: 76° (tied record set in 1975)
Washington, DC: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938 and 1975)
Westhampton: 80° (old record: 70°, 2020) ***New November Record***
White Plains: 75° (old record: 73°, 2020)
Wilmington, DE: 80° (old record: 75°, 1938, 1975, and 2020)

Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City (JFK, LGA, NYC), Newark, and Philadelphia all experienced their warmest first week of November on record. The final numbers will be available after midnight, as cooler air is now pressing into the region.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week.

The cold front could be preceded by a significant rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday.

Beyond mid-month, there are emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. There is now good agreement between the latest ensembles and the statistical guidance following strong polar vortexes at the end of October showing the AO going negative toward November 20th +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -31.05 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.739 today.

On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.827 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.725 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5° (2.5° above normal).

 

From 8 inches of snow to 80 degrees on the same day 10 years later!

Freehold got 14" in that storm, I suspect they were even warmer than 80 today.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ten years ago the high temperature at JFK Airport was 41°, as a snowstorm moved in. Today, summerlike warmth prevailed as the thermometer topped out at 80°.

Today's daily records included:

Athens, GA: 85° (old record: 84°, 2017)
Atlanta: 83° (old record: 79°, 2005 and 2017)
Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 77°, 2020)
Baltimore: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938, 1975, and 2020)
Bangor: 73° (old record: 71°, 2020)
Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record***
Caribou: 64° (old record: 63°, 1948)
Houlton, ME: 67° (old record: 66°, 1948 and 1975)
Islip: 80° (old record: 74°, 2020) ***New November Record***
Lynchburg: 84° (old record: 77°, 1965)
New Haven: 80° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record***
New Orleans: 90° (old record: 86°, 1986) ***New November Record; Latest 90° temperature on record***
New York City-JFK: 80° (old record: 73°, 2020)
New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Newark: 81° (old record: 78°, 1938)
Philadelphia: 79° (old record: 76°, 1938)
Poughkeepsie: 75° (tied record set in 2020)
Providence: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Raleigh: 84° (old record: 80°, 2008)
Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975)
Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Tallahassee: 88° (old record: 86°, 2003 and 2015)
Trenton: 76° (tied record set in 1975)
Washington, DC: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938 and 1975)
Westhampton: 80° (old record: 70°, 2020) ***New November Record***
White Plains: 75° (old record: 73°, 2020)
Wilmington, DE: 80° (old record: 75°, 1938, 1975, and 2020)

Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City (JFK, LGA, NYC), Newark, and Philadelphia all experienced their warmest first week of November on record. The final numbers will be available after midnight, as cooler air is now pressing into the region.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week.

The cold front could be preceded by a significant rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday.

Beyond mid-month, there are emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. There is now good agreement between the latest ensembles and the statistical guidance following strong polar vortexes at the end of October showing the AO going negative toward November 20th +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -31.05 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.739 today.

On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.827 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.725 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5° (2.5° above normal).

 

Wow-- just noticed this-- Westhampton KFOK 80 degrees, new monthly record (latest 80 on record) and beat their old record by 10 degrees?!  If this had happened in July even they would have hit 100+!

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and much cooler High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 59°

Tomorrow will be another cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.7°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 58.6°

[donsutherland1]

Many parts of the northeastern U.S. saw their warmest first week of November on record. A sample of records is below.

[bluewave]

Monday was one of the warmest November days that our area has experienced. It was the first 80° reading in November at Islip. The monthly maxes were tied at JFK and BDR. It was only the 2nd 80° in November at JFK. This sets us up for a near record weekly temperature drop of 50° by early next Monday as lows approach 32°.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	80	23
2	1990	78	0
3	1993	77	0
-	1982	77	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	85	0
2	2022	81	23
-	2003	81	0
-	1974	81	0
3	1993	80	0
-	1982	80	0
-	1948	80	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	80	23
-	1950	80	1
2	1993	77	0
-	1982	77	0
-	1975	77	0
3	1974	76	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	79	23
2	1993	78	0
-	1975	78	0
3	1950	77	0

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=162&month=nov&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[donsutherland1]

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   51degs.(45/57) or +2.

Month to date is  64.6[+13.0].       Should be  57.3[+7.2] by the 16th.        The GFS first week of November outlook  of +14 was laughed at by some.

Reached 77 here yesterday.

Today:   55-59, wind n.-breezy, m. sunny, 39 tomorrow AM.

48*(52%RH) here at 6am.     50* at 9am.       51* at 10am.        54* at Noon.      Reached 59* at 2pm and held till about 4pm.      56* at 5pm.

Nicole effects here(NYC) Friday PM-Saturday PM maybe 1" up to 3", gusts up to 50mph from se. to s. to sw. and then nw. and dying down quickly on Saturday AM.      Nicole remnants passing near BM on the GFS.

T Anomaly for 1st. Week after storm passes:

[bluewave]

Transitioning to a colder near record -EPO blocking pattern in mid-November as Nicole pulls the trough into the East and weakens the SE Ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

This post revisits the comment from November 3:

The GEFS now forecasts the AO to go negative after mid-month. That forecast is in good agreement with statistical outcomes following strong polar vortexes at the end of October.

The development of a period of Atlantic blocking will follow the ongoing development of an EPO-. The outcome will likely be a colder than normal period that will last 7-10 days.

Deeper and more sustained Atlantic blocking would allow for a longer duration of cold conditions. Currently, both the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies suggest that the cold will be replaced by a return to warmer conditions in the closing days of November.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Transitioning to a colder near record -EPO blocking pattern in mid-November as Nicole pulls the trough into the East and weakens the SE Ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

any analogs as to what this kind of -EPO this time of the year would portend to for the winter, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and much cooler High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 59°

Tomorrow will be another cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.7°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 58.6°

Don and others, I hope you all got to see the splendid total lunar eclipse last night/this morning!  The moon was low but I was able to follow most of the first half of totality....from 5:16 am to 5:45 am, before the moon got too low to see from here.  And the sky brightened up after 5:50 am anyway so mid eclipse at 5:59 am wouldn't have been as great as the first part of totality was.

 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

any analogs as to what this kind of -EPO this time of the year would portend to for the winter, Chris?

 

The top 6 strongest EPO blocking Novembers were 2019, 2018, 2014,2013,1996, and 1978. Quite a bit of variability between those winters. The recent examples of 19-20 and 18-19 were the opposite of 14-15 and 13-14. Similar to the spread between the 96-97 and 78-79 winter. So just looking at the November EPO wasn’t much help.

 

 

[CIK62]

After tacking on another 20 positive degree surplus{Th,F,S} or about +0.7 toward the monthly average---the GFS Ens. is Lather>Rinse>Repeat.      Thank You Neg. EPO and soon to be Neg. AO?

[StormchaserChuck!]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Many parts of the northeastern U.S. saw their warmest first week of November on record. A sample of records is below.

Leaves are still on all the trees, despite below average October.. I think we beat last years record. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The top 6 strongest EPO blocking Novembers were 2019, 2018, 2014,2013,1996, and 1978. Quite a bit of variability between those winters. The recent examples of 19-20 and 18-19 were the opposite of 14-15 and 13-14. Similar to the spread between the 96-97 and 78-79 winter. So just looking at the November EPO wasn’t much help.

 

13-14 and 14-15 were pretty good October 500mb pattern matches. (minus 09-10 means that it's slightly a La Nina pattern)

October +matches since 2000:

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The top 6 strongest EPO blocking Novembers were 2019, 2018, 2014,2013,1996, and 1978. Quite a bit of variability between those winters. The recent examples of 19-20 and 18-19 were the opposite of 14-15 and 13-14. Similar to the spread between the 96-97 and 78-79 winter. So just looking at the November EPO wasn’t much help.

 

 

Weird that so many have occurred recently, looks like the EPO block has become more extreme, which is why we didn't hear much about this kind of block prior to 2013.  I know I had never heard of the EPO before then.

[Roger Smith]

Although Nov 1-7 was the warmest first week of November (avg 64.57), it was not quite the warmest week entirely within November, that distinction remains with Nov 3-9, 1975 (65.57). Nov 4-10 1975 was also warmer at 65.07. Then Nov 5-11 2020 was tied third in one decimal (64.64) although third ahead of this month's entry in two decimals. 

If one considered weeks with any November days in them, then Oct 26 to Nov 1, 1946 leads with 67.86. 

Nov 2 to 8 2022 will not set weekly records as the record values (also from 1975) are only marginally lower for mean, and higher for average max, than yesterday's result and today is considerably cooler than the 1st which it would replace in the average. Based on the early climate report, the average max for the week Nov 2-8 is 70.43 and the average min is 55.71, the mean therefore is 63.07. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

It wasn't even a very warm 500mb pattern, in the first week of Nov. It also broke against the global pattern trend from Apr-Oct and back now in the present. The pattern was more like a warm front. 

[donsutherland1]

After a frosty start, tomorrow will again see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week.

The cold front could be preceded by a rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday, particularly west of the Appalachians.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its duration, should it develop, is uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -14.89 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.930 today.

On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.743 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.825 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3° (2.3° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

38 here.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

A frosty start will be followed by a sunny but cool day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 60°

Tomorrow will be another cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.3°; 15-Year: 57.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.2°

[dmillz25]

Down to 38 here. Coldest of the season so far

[lee59]

37 here this morning. Looks to be interesting around here Friday night. Will be interesting to see how much wind we end up getting.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Weird that so many have occurred recently, looks like the EPO block has become more extreme, which is why we didn't hear much about this kind of block prior to 2013.  I know I had never heard of the EPO before then.

Yeah, the blocking over the NE PAC and Alaska has been unprecedented since 2013. This type of extreme EPO blocking is something new. All-time 500 mb height records have been set over the last decade. 
 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   53degs.(47/59) or +5.

Month to date is   63.1[+11.7].          Should be about   58.1[+8.3] by the 17th.

GFSens. looks like soldiers marching in file.       The OP is Sloppy Joes.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today:   53-56, wind ne. to s. to sw., p. sunny, 49 tomorrow AM.

Nicole remnant rains down to 1"-2", winds peak early Saturday before sunrise.      Center is 400miles+ further west than three days ago, at our LAT.

42*(46%RH) here at 6am.      44* at 8am.       50* at 11am.       54* at 3pm.       Reached 55* at 4pm.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 38 here. Coldest of the season so far

My feet are sure feeling it and I don't like it one bit.  I thought this kind of cold wasn't supposed to get here until next week?  It reminds me of how surprisingly cold it was October 30th in the morning.  The last week of October was supposed to be warm lol.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

My feet are sure feeling it and I don't like it one bit.  I thought this kind of cold wasn't supposed to get here until next week?  It reminds me of how surprisingly cold it was October 30th in the morning.  The last week of October was supposed to be warm lol.

This morning wasn’t that cold compared to the means. The 38° low at Newark was only a -3. But dropping from 80° a few days ago makes it feel colder.

 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
November 9, 2022

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	57	77 in 2020	38 in 1976
Min Temperature	M	41	57 in 1975	23 in 1976

[mannynyc]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

My feet are sure feeling it and I don't like it one bit.  I thought this kind of cold wasn't supposed to get here until next week?  It reminds me of how surprisingly cold it was October 30th in the morning.  The last week of October was supposed to be warm lol.

Better this than 80 degrees. Summer heat this time of year just feels unnatural 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Better this than 80 degrees. Summer heat this time of year just feels unnatural 

80 degrees doesn't happen early in the morning unless it's super humid.  The lows in the 50s were just fine and very comfy.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This morning wasn’t that cold compared to the means. The 38° low at Newark was only a -3. But dropping from 80° a few days ago makes it feel colder.

 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
November 9, 2022

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	57	77 in 2020	38 in 1976
Min Temperature	M	41	57 in 1975	23 in 1976

Yes and my heat turned on even though I have it set to 55 lol

I don't believe any of the NYC airports or the park has gotten into the 30s have they?