November 2022

[wdrag]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:53 AM, wdrag said:

Back to midweek: Nov 30-Dec 1

Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for damaging wind middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley. My guess is we'll see some sort of wind damage but it is 5 days away and gradients could be a bit too strong?  Strongest wind gust event possible in quite a while??? It's early but worth further future model checks before possibly discarding.

Anyway:  Nothing new to add to the above except Low Pressure further N toward to Hud Bay and nearer 980-85MB (weaker) but time for a meso low on the CF and tighten the gradient here.  Front side might be a little rough LI/NYC with a shower squall line of sorts in the 6P-mid time frame Wednesday. Ensembles 850 wind is strengthening as we draw closer to the event indicating more ensemble member agreement (55KT).  OP (12z/27 NAM/RGEM and 6z/27 EC) runs have over 64 KT in the warm sector over LI.

Meanwhile: HRRR offers a few G 45-50MPG e LI this eve. 

 

 

[Eduardo]

On 11/26/2022 at 5:11 AM, LibertyBell said:

93-94 and 95-96 definitely were great and not boring

Valid point, but they were (spectacular) diamonds in the rough.  Crossing my fingers that we have one of those on tap.  We could be in for some fun if this stout -NAO develops as-advertised.  

I still am not liking this PAC-pukey, seemingly semi-permanent Niña background state we’ve dealt with these past few years.  Need to dislodge that ASAP.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Valid point, but they were (spectacular) diamonds in the rough.  Crossing my fingers that we have one of those on tap.  We could be in for some fun if this stout -NAO develops as-advertised.  

I still am not liking this PAC-pukey, seemingly semi-permanent Niña background state we’ve dealt with these past few years.  Need to dislodge that ASAP.

The 70s and 80s were much worse though, I'm glad I was too young to experience the 70s, even if 77-78 was great, it wasn't worth what happened the other 9 out of 10 years.  The 80s didn't have any great years and no great snowstorms at all outside of April 1982 and February 1983....

The last few years (since 2018) have been similar to the 80s, but with more snow (more moisture available to tap into for storms.)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

My man, haven’t you been harping about the raging Niña since what feels like forever?  Now you all of a sudden think there’s no tendency for a SE ridge?

He's basically saying we're in a thread the needle pattern..... so what else is new? lol

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Oh boy Forky has spoken

You never know, he could be trolling too ;-)

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You never know, he could be trolling too ;-)

 

Forky troll? Never

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Valid point, but they were (spectacular) diamonds in the rough.  Crossing my fingers that we have one of those on tap.  We could be in for some fun if this stout -NAO develops as-advertised.  

I still am not liking this PAC-pukey, seemingly semi-permanent Niña background state we’ve dealt with these past few years.  Need to dislodge that ASAP.

You need another Nino (and brutally bad winter) to likely change the status quo. Something snapped in 2015-2016

 

Also, the background state of those two winters was a colder climate. 93-94 was spectacular in a way that likely isnt possible today…an almost endless supply of cold and storms. I think there was a two week break towards the end of January

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You need another Nino (and brutally bad winter) to likely change the status quo. Something snapped in 2015-2016

 

Also, the background state of those two winters was a colder climate. 93-94 was spectacular in a way that likely isnt possible today…an almost endless supply of cold and storms. I think there was a two week break towards the end of January

End of Feb 94 had a break followed by a massive inland runner in early March 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You need another Nino (and brutally bad winter) to likely change the status quo. Something snapped in 2015-2016

 

Also, the background state of those two winters was a colder climate. 93-94 was spectacular in a way that likely isnt possible today…an almost endless supply of cold and storms. I think there was a two week break towards the end of January

We had a few winters that came close to that-- 2003-04 was one and 2014-15 was another.  But it's definitely something we probably shouldn't count on happening more than, say, once a decade or so.  1993-94 had amazing below zero temperatures to an extent we haven't seen since then.

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

End of Feb 94 had a break followed by a massive inland runner in early March 

1995-96 was superior to it for big snows, but 1993-94 was colder.

 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You need another Nino (and brutally bad winter) to likely change the status quo. Something snapped in 2015-2016

 

Also, the background state of those two winters was a colder climate. 93-94 was spectacular in a way that likely isnt possible today…an almost endless supply of cold and storms. I think there was a two week break towards the end of January

Pinatubo might have had a role in that winter.

[LibertyBell]

It's hilarious no one is talking about this big rain storm going on right now with it about as dark as it gets outside.  My morning rainfall allergies at least went away when the rain started coming down hard.  Those are bad when it's light rain or just cloudy, but once it's raining hard the air cleans up and my allergies go away.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It's hilarious no one is talking about this big rain storm going on right now with it about as dark as it gets outside.  My morning rainfall allergies at least went away when the rain started coming down hard.  Those are bad when it's light rain or just cloudy, but once it's raining hard the air cleans up and my allergies go away.

 

It'll be outta here in 2 hours with a half inch

[winterwx21]

50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It'll be outta here in 2 hours with a half inch

Back edge of the steady rain already passed. This was a quick mover. Only a third of an inch here. Might add a little more with some scattered showers. 

[Brian5671]

rain roared in her at 2pm and out by 4:30pm  quick mover about a half inch

[donsutherland1]

A few additional showers are likely through midnight. Temperatures will remain will be unseasonably mild overnight. Cooler air will overspread the region tomorrow, but temperatures could rebound during the middle of the week.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The latest EPS suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall ws 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +10.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.533 today.

On November 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.630 (RMM). The November 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.318 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.8° (2.8° above normal).

 

[psv88]

Pouring. These bands popped up out of nowhere. 

[Rmine1]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pouring. These bands popped up out of nowhere. 

Same here on south shore 

[jm1220]

Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show. 

[Rjay]

That was quite a downpour 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A few additional showers are likely through midnight. Temperatures will remain will be unseasonably mild overnight. Cooler air will overspread the region tomorrow, but temperatures could rebound during the middle of the week.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The latest EPS suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall ws 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +10.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.533 today.

On November 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.630 (RMM). The November 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.318 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.8° (2.8° above normal).

 

Also, Decembers with at least 6" of snow generally result in above normal snowfall during La Nina winters correct, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show. 

Yep, it cleaned out whatever was causing my horrendous allergies today.

Light rain is THE WORST (or just cloudy skies), when it rains hard they vanish.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also, Decembers with at least 6" of snow generally result in above normal snowfall during La Nina winters correct, Don?

 

Yes. Those with 10" or more do even better.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Those with 10" or more do even better.

Yes in 2010 that hung on a knife's edge, as the original prediction was for 3 inches or less in December, which would have meant a low snowfall winter.  The day after Christmas storm when the month was nearly over is what turned the knife.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and breezy. Temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 54°

It will turn cooler for tomorrow and Tuesday before temperatures rebound.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.3°; 15-Year: 51.8°

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Those with 10" or more do even better.

Hi Don, just wondering, how much is this due to the fact that a 6", or especially 10", December, on its own would put much of our area so far ahead of our paltry pace that even a subsequent average Jan-February would necessarily result an above normal year?  Or is it the case that in years with a snowy December, that Jan and February months themselves also tend to be above normal?  Thanks.

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of November are averaging   47degs.(42/52)or +5.       First Week of December averaging   44degs.(38/51) or +4.

GFSext says the next BN 7-Day Period is centered on Dec. 10.      Month should be BN every 7 day period beyond that.       But caution advised as this cold air will not be coming from Hudson Bay---but much further west and could warm and get waylaid at anytime and pop goes the SE Ridge.

Month to date is    51.5[+3.0].         November should end at   51.0[+3.0].

Reached 60* here at 10pm! yesterday.

Today: High already reached at 56.    Falling T's into upper 40's and 39 by tomorrow AM, wind w. to n.-breezy, variable skies.

53*(80%RH) here at 6am.    55* at 8am.      50* at 9am.   51* at Noon.      51* at 3pm.       45* at 8pm.

[bluewave]

Still a top 5 and 10 warmest November with a few days to go.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	49.2	2
2	2006	48.8	0
3	2011	48.7	0
4	2022	48.5	4
-	2015	48.5	0
-	2009	48.5	0
5	2001	48.0	0
-	1975	48.0	0
6	2020	47.9	0
7	1963	47.5	0
8	2016	46.6	0
9	2003	46.3	0
-	1964	46.3	0
10	1999	46.2	9
-	1966	46.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	53.0	0
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	2022	51.5	3
9	1902	51.4	0
10	2009	51.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1975	52.7	0
2	2015	52.5	0
3	2009	51.0	0
-	2001	51.0	0
4	2022	50.9	3
-	2020	50.9	0
-	1994	50.9	0
5	2011	50.8	0
-	2006	50.8	0
6	1948	50.7	0
7	2016	50.6	0
8	1982	50.4	0
9	1985	50.1	0
10	1999	50.0	0

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Still a top 5 and 10 warmest November with a few days to go.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	49.2	2
2	2006	48.8	0
3	2011	48.7	0
4	2022	48.5	4
-	2015	48.5	0
-	2009	48.5	0
5	2001	48.0	0
-	1975	48.0	0
6	2020	47.9	0
7	1963	47.5	0
8	2016	46.6	0
9	2003	46.3	0
-	1964	46.3	0
10	1999	46.2	9
-	1966	46.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	53.0	0
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	2022	51.5	3
9	1902	51.4	0
10	2009	51.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1975	52.7	0
2	2015	52.5	0
3	2009	51.0	0
-	2001	51.0	0
4	2022	50.9	3
-	2020	50.9	0
-	1994	50.9	0
5	2011	50.8	0
-	2006	50.8	0
6	1948	50.7	0
7	2016	50.6	0
8	1982	50.4	0
9	1985	50.1	0
10	1999	50.0	0

Thank goodness for the "cold" period after the very warm opening or it might have been a top 3 or warmer November.  The colder than normal middle of the month did a decent job at knocking back the opening very positive departures.  Months with negative temperature departures (even against the warmest normals we've ever had) are pretty rare these days.  We'll see what December can produce but the opening of the month is certainly going to start off on the milder side.  December does look to have the POTENTIAL to finish BN but caution is advised since much will depend on the -NAO blocking and were / how it actually positions itself.  If the SE ridge (which seems to be a semi-permanent feature of late) hangs on, even only modestly then temperatures will finish at or above normal levels.  Pattern overall though looks to favor much colder air masses  from the center of the country at least oozing into the eastern 1/3 of the nation.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Hi Don, just wondering, how much is this due to the fact that a 6", or especially 10", December, on its own would put much of our area so far ahead of our paltry pace that even a subsequent average Jan-February would necessarily result an above normal year?  Or is it the case that in years with a snowy December, that Jan and February months themselves also tend to be above normal?  Thanks.

Here's a graph for New York City's historic December data (1869-2021):