November 2022

[donsutherland1]

Near sunset to conclude another mild November day.

[donsutherland1]

After a sunny start to the weekend, rain will return to the region Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will remain generally mild. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.738 today.

On November 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.243 (RMM). The November 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.252 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.6° (2.6° above normal).

 

[MJO812]

Timber

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Timber

what about the AO? What's the forecast for that?

[EasternLI]

Urals ridge is getting really interesting now. That's something that starts to unfold between now and day 6. Not day 10+. 18z GFS just went nuts with it again. So that's the 2nd run in a row and the 12z Euro was very close.

The GFS nukes the polar vortex as a result. 2 runs in a row now. Also of note, this loosely matches the expected response from the paper I posted too. So maybe there's something here. That's also really cool to see on a model now. Felt a post about this was in order. Eyes peeled on this thing now. 

 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

what about the AO? What's the forecast for that?

++++++

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

what about the AO? What's the forecast for that?

Found this for GEFS (could not locate EPS.

[EasternLI]

18z Gefs are trying to do it too now.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

what about the AO? What's the forecast for that?

Negative 

[EasternLI]

Didn't quite get there all the way. But left behind this pattern. Which is still favorable for further damage to it anyway. That was an entertaining run. No idea beyond day 10 anymore if that's a possibility now. 

[CIK62]

The most BN 7-Day period among the next 16 days around here is not even BN.        Coldest day here was about -3.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave The QBO finally has gone back to normal 6 years after the super El Niño. Crazy how that event completely altered normal QBO progressions

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a sunny start to the weekend, rain will return to the region Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will remain generally mild. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.738 today.

On November 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.243 (RMM). The November 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.252 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.6° (2.6° above normal).

 

Says mild but it definitely doesn't feel mild.  So windy and cold tonight!

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I hate to say it, but I’m not really feeling this pattern at all.  Might be time to close the shades until mid Dec, at least.

Almost feels like we’re in the middle of a 90s-style string of boring winters right now.

 

93-94 and 95-96 definitely were great and not boring

[SnoSki14]

17 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I hate to say it, but I’m not really feeling this pattern at all.  Might be time to close the shades until mid Dec, at least.

Almost feels like we’re in the middle of a 90s-style string of boring winters right now.

 

It's a pattern that could break in any direction. Amount of SE ridging will be key here. 

We need to root for 2010 style blocking to overcome the ridging which is a tall order.

This -PNA/NAO/AO pattern would work better in January with colder climo

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a pattern that could break in any direction. Amount of SE ridging will be key here. 

We need to root for 2010 style blocking to overcome the ridging which is a tall order.

This -PNA/NAO/AO pattern would work better in January with colder climo

Exactly, I’m not sure what the obsession is with a -nao. It’s far from the most important driver for snow. We have seen Plenty of -nao wasted due to lack of available cold. And when they are too strong they often favor the mid Atlantic and we smoke cirrus. 

The old saying goes show me the cold I’ll show you the snow for a reason.

back in the 1800s nyc would see wall to wall snow coverage from late November to March even during average snow seasons (approximately 35” at the time)

[greenmtnwx]

49 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, I’m not sure what the obsession is with a -nao. It’s far from the most important driver for snow. We have seen Plenty of -nao wasted due to lack of available cold. And when they are too strong they often favor the mid Atlantic and we smoke cirrus. 

The old saying goes show me the cold I’ll show you the snow for a reason.

back in the 1800s nyc would see wall to wall snow coverage from late November to March even during average snow seasons (approximately 35” at the time)

I highly doubt we’ll to wall in nyc. It may have occurred as an anomaly but not the norm 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave The QBO finally has gone back to normal 6 years after the super El Niño. Crazy how that event completely altered normal QBO progressions

But we are getting a -NAO pattern into early December. So the stronger SPV isn’t able to propagate downward into the troposphere. Our pattern will again come down to how much cooperation we can get from the Pacific.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

But we are getting a -NAO pattern into early December. So the stronger SPV isn’t able to propagate downward into the troposphere. Our pattern will again come down to how much cooperation we can get from the Pacific.
 
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Right, for now it is not able to couple with the troposphere, which is good for cold. The strengthening SPV is fitting with the current +QBO however

[snowman19]

Here is some great info with graphics on east-based -NAO’s vs west-based -NAO’s

[EasternLI]

The NAO is important to see because without it this winter would be shot. I'd have a whole team of punters lol

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, for now it is not able to couple with the troposphere, which is good for cold. The strengthening SPV is fitting with the current +QBO however

The past stratospheric analogs may not be as useful this time due to the Hunga Tunga eruption.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100982

While the stratosphere (15–55 km) region of the atmosphere contains the ozone layer, it is typically very dry, especially when compared to the troposphere. However, the remarkable eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano on 15 January 2022 injected a record amount of water directly into the stratosphere. Winds in the stratospheric soon carried this excess water vapor around the globe to all longitudes and spread the water vapor in latitude as well. Since water vapor can cool to space more rapidly than the stratospheric air, enhanced cooling in the stratosphere is expected. This study quantifies this cooling, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption. The extreme nature of the stratospheric temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the first six months of 2022 with the previous 42 years. Details of the stratospheric perturbations in latitude and pressure are presented for June 2022, where anomalously low temperatures are found at near 20 km altitude from 60 to 30°S. In response to this cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating strong westerly winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

[wdrag]

Back to midweek: Nov 30-Dec 1

Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for damaging wind middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley. My guess is we'll see some sort of wind damage but it is 5 days away and gradients could be a bit too strong?  Strongest wind gust event possible in quite a while??? It's early but worth further future model checks before possibly discarding.

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of November are averaging    47degs.(42/53) or +4.

Month to date is     51.5[+2.7].       November should end at  50.7[+2.7].

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today:    51-54, wind nw., p. sunny, 46 tomorrow AM.

44*(52%RH) here at 6am.        44* at 9am.       48* at 11am.       53* at 2pm.      Reached 57* at 3pm.        52* at 8pm.

The wind event mentioned above:        Starts before this time and lasts 36 hours overall at 30mph+ potential?     I think every wind event I have posted through the summer failed to live up to the hype below.       Its the GFS man.

 

[EastonSN+]

I think one thing that is lost is the fact that our 30 to 35 average annual snowfall is low enough where we can reach average in almost any background state. Even last year IMBY I was only 8 below average from only 1 month of winter weather. 

Couple the above with a predominantly negative NAO, EVEN EAST BASED, and we can easily reach average. This is why people get excited for a neg NAO.

As long as we stay away from the pig (trough below Alaska), or a super El Nino we are in the ballgame. 

OT - also helps that we are on the northeast coast where a Feb. 2013 or February 2006 can pop.

 

[MJO812]

Nice pattern incoming

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think one thing that is lost is the fact that our 30 to 35 average annual snowfall is low enough where we can reach average in almost any background state. Even last year IMBY I was only 8 below average from only 1 month of winter weather. 

Couple the above with a predominantly negative NAO, EVEN EAST BASED, and we can easily reach average. This is why people get excited for a neg NAO.

As long as we stay away from the pig (trough below Alaska), or a super El Nino we are in the ballgame. 

OT - also helps that we are on the northeast coast where a Feb. 2013 or February 2006 can pop.

 

The average for your area is around 40” since 2010. It was around half that much from 1980 to 2000. So who knows what is average snowfall anymore.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.3	1.1	5.9	12.0	13.8	6.1	0.5	T	39.7
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	20.8	4.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	27.7
2020-2021	T	T	10.0	3.1	30.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	43.8
2019-2020	0.0	T	5.5	4.6	T	T	T	T	10.1
2018-2019	0.0	5.8	0.5	1.2	3.6	13.5	0.0	0.0	24.6
2017-2018	0.0	0.0	8.7	11.4	5.3	14.5	6.0	0.0	45.9
2016-2017	T	T	6.0	11.0	12.8	11.1	0.0	0.0	40.9
2015-2016	T	0.0	0.7	10.3	13.9	2.3	0.1	0.0	27.3
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	0.7	18.7	21.5	18.6	T	0.0	59.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.1	10.9	13.4	32.1	0.8	0.1	0.0	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	8.4	7.8	4.7	30.4	13.0	0.0	0.0	64.3
2011-2012	4.0	0.0	0.0	7.4	2.2	T	T	0.0	13.6
2010-2011	0.0	0.4	12.0	42.0	5.0	3.2	T	0.0	62.6
2009-2010	T	0.0	13.4	7.7	16.9	0.1	T	0.0	38.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.0	0.7	3.3	7.0	6.2	4.2	1.2	0.0	22.6
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	T	6.5	5.7	0.1	1.0	0.0	13.3
1998-1999	0.0	M	1.1	6.2	3.0	9.6	0.0	0.0	19.9
1997-1998	0.0	T	6.7	1.7	T	0.5	0.0	0.0	8.9
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.0	3.8	2.1	3.8	4.0	0.0	14.7
1995-1996	0.0	2.6	13.8	20.5	16.8	10.2	11.8	0.0	75.7
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	1.3	8.0	T	T	0.0	9.3
1993-1994	0.0	0.0	1.9	17.3	27.9	7.9	0.0	0.0	55.0
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.4	3.3	9.5	13.7	0.0	0.0	28.9
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.1	1.8	2.4	10.2	0.0	0.0	16.5
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	7.1	6.3	5.6	3.0	0.0	0.0	22.0
1989-1990	0.0	6.6	4.1	5.2	9.3	4.4	1.7	0.0	31.3
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	7.5	1.6	2.1	1.8	0.0	0.0	13.0
1987-1988	0.5	0.9	1.8	15.5	2.1	2.1	T	0.0	22.9
1986-1987	0.0	1.8	3.3	11.4	2.9	2.7	0.0	0.0	22.1
1985-1986	0.0	1.0	3.5	2.0	11.0	T	T	0.0	17.5
1984-1985	0.0	T	1.5	11.2	6.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	19.7
1983-1984	0.0	T	0.6	11.6	T	8.4	0.0	0.0	20.6
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	5.1	14.2	T	0.5	0.0	23.0
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	3.1	9.0	T	1.6	6.0	0.0	19.7
1980-1981	0.0	1.0	3.6	5.4	T	1.5	0.0	0.0	11.5
1979-1980	T	0.0	0.9	0.7	1.7	6.3	0.0	0.0	9.6

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, bluewave said:

The average for your area is around 40” since 2010. It was around half that much from 1980 to 2000. So who knows what is average snowfall anymore.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.3	1.1	5.9	12.0	13.8	6.1	0.5	T	39.7
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	20.8	4.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	27.7
2020-2021	T	T	10.0	3.1	30.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	43.8
2019-2020	0.0	T	5.5	4.6	T	T	T	T	10.1
2018-2019	0.0	5.8	0.5	1.2	3.6	13.5	0.0	0.0	24.6
2017-2018	0.0	0.0	8.7	11.4	5.3	14.5	6.0	0.0	45.9
2016-2017	T	T	6.0	11.0	12.8	11.1	0.0	0.0	40.9
2015-2016	T	0.0	0.7	10.3	13.9	2.3	0.1	0.0	27.3
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	0.7	18.7	21.5	18.6	T	0.0	59.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.1	10.9	13.4	32.1	0.8	0.1	0.0	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	8.4	7.8	4.7	30.4	13.0	0.0	0.0	64.3
2011-2012	4.0	0.0	0.0	7.4	2.2	T	T	0.0	13.6
2010-2011	0.0	0.4	12.0	42.0	5.0	3.2	T	0.0	62.6
2009-2010	T	0.0	13.4	7.7	16.9	0.1	T	0.0	38.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.0	0.7	3.3	7.0	6.2	4.2	1.2	0.0	22.6
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	T	6.5	5.7	0.1	1.0	0.0	13.3
1998-1999	0.0	M	1.1	6.2	3.0	9.6	0.0	0.0	19.9
1997-1998	0.0	T	6.7	1.7	T	0.5	0.0	0.0	8.9
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.0	3.8	2.1	3.8	4.0	0.0	14.7
1995-1996	0.0	2.6	13.8	20.5	16.8	10.2	11.8	0.0	75.7
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	1.3	8.0	T	T	0.0	9.3
1993-1994	0.0	0.0	1.9	17.3	27.9	7.9	0.0	0.0	55.0
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.4	3.3	9.5	13.7	0.0	0.0	28.9
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.1	1.8	2.4	10.2	0.0	0.0	16.5
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	7.1	6.3	5.6	3.0	0.0	0.0	22.0
1989-1990	0.0	6.6	4.1	5.2	9.3	4.4	1.7	0.0	31.3
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	7.5	1.6	2.1	1.8	0.0	0.0	13.0
1987-1988	0.5	0.9	1.8	15.5	2.1	2.1	T	0.0	22.9
1986-1987	0.0	1.8	3.3	11.4	2.9	2.7	0.0	0.0	22.1
1985-1986	0.0	1.0	3.5	2.0	11.0	T	T	0.0	17.5
1984-1985	0.0	T	1.5	11.2	6.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	19.7
1983-1984	0.0	T	0.6	11.6	T	8.4	0.0	0.0	20.6
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	5.1	14.2	T	0.5	0.0	23.0
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	3.1	9.0	T	1.6	6.0	0.0	19.7
1980-1981	0.0	1.0	3.6	5.4	T	1.5	0.0	0.0	11.5
1979-1980	T	0.0	0.9	0.7	1.7	6.3	0.0	0.0	9.6

 

Thanks for this.

One thing I would like to throw out there is Bridgeport under reports by at least 20%.

So every single town, including Bridgeport itself outside of the Stratfield airport where the measurements are taken, are wayyyyyy higher than the above.

At no point was any town in SW CT lower than 30 for average annual.

BDR records are unfortunately useless

For instance I was Living in Norwalk on the coast 2000 through 2010, and only receive 3 winters of less than 36 inches. Eclipsed 40 inches 5 times with one at 67 and one at 52. 

Worst was the blizzard of 1996 where BDR reported 15 while every other town 25 plus. Pathetic on their part.

Sorry to vent, however didn't want viewers to believe that SW CT averaged less snowfall than all surrounding areas

 

[EastonSN+]

I do want to add that yes the 90s stunk outside of 93, 94 and 96. 

[the_other_guy]

11 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The most BN 7-Day period among the next 16 days around here is not even BN.        Coldest day here was about -3.

Yeh, minus another 3 to 5 for those warm GFS forecasts.