Eduardo Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Yeah I hate to say it, but I’m not really feeling this pattern at all. Might be time to close the shades until mid Dec, at least. Almost feels like we’re in the middle of a 90s-style string of boring winters right now. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Let's see what the GEFS shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 If someone asked me if I'm ok to trade a early December cold shot. For a chance of something possibly better a little later. I'm going to say yes to that 100% of the time. Climo is trash in early December anyway. I was actually ready to punt this whole winter totally back in the summer. When looking at things. But right now? The punter is cut and this is interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Block to far north and -pna makes every storm Go ham in the plains. Obviously it’s a op run but that has been the trend of the ensembles Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern Who is calling you that ? It's the same people every year calling a bust even before winter starts. Even the meteorologists in the SNE are perplexed how people are giving up . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yes. Depends if you take the eps or gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern The problem is that the look with a better pac and better block only lasts a few days. Then it goes back with more of a -pna with southeast ridge. I don’t think that look would be friendly for sne either. You already have a smoothed out mean showing a -pna with ridge in the east. Imagine what happens when we get closer? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 I do like this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I do like this Nice ridging We have to hope the NAO isn't that strong. A beefy southeast ridge with a negative NAO will do the trick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The problem is that the look with a better pac and better block only lasts a few days. Then it goes back with more of a -pna with southeast ridge. I don’t think that look would be friendly for sne either. You already have a smoothed out mean showing a -pna with ridge in the east. Imagine what happens when we get closer? No one was forecasting a good PNA ridge. The epo , nao and ao are going favorable. We need the NAO to suppress the ridge . The pattern forecasted looks way better than what it is now . Can it fail ? Sure but let's see where we are at during the 1st week of December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nice ridging We have to hope the NAO isn't that strong. A beefy southeast ridge with a negative NAO will do the trick. You want the deep reds to be further south on that map to be ideal for our location 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Continues 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You want the deep reds to be further south on that map to be ideal for our location Agreed more SW is KU worth, however the ridging to the west would allow for overrunning snows do to temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 850 temps couple days later. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Europe into the freezer on that run. Hopefully they have split enough firewood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 I'LL TAKE AN UGLY WOMAN ANYTIME......but at least wear some lipstick! From the last of the LR Wonder Models----check out the next 7! It better be right-----because its version of the next 30 is about 10 BN around here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 58 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I do like this That's also a nice look if you ultimately wish to do harm to the PV. I like it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 32 minutes ago, CIK62 said: I'LL TAKE AN UGLY WOMAN ANYTIME......but at least wear some lipstick! From the last of the LR Wonder Models----check out the next 7! It better be right-----because its version of the next 30 is about 10 BN around here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, EasternLI said: That's also a nice look if you ultimately wish to do harm to the PV. I like it. 12z Euro is alot colder than 0z at 240. Op runs are going to struggle with this upcoming change. Stick with the ensembles . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z Euro is alot colder than 0z at 240. Op runs are going to struggle with this upcoming change. Stick with the ensembles . Same with 12z eps. Pattern change starts next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z Eps is -NAO happy today in the extended. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Who is calling you that ? It's the same people every year calling a bust even before winter starts. Even the meteorologists in the SNE are perplexed how people are giving up . It is because they fail to understand that there is a difference between having a different point of view and cancelling winter.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z Eps is -NAO happy today in the extended. Nice change from 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Pre loading NYC snowstorm 500mb Map vs EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z Eps is -NAO happy today in the extended. What I love is seeing blocking remain in place. The PAC keeps re shuffling duo to MJO loop, but the blocking keeps us in the game throughout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern That happens far too often....it discourages more people from posting. Some people prefer to lurk rather than incurring the wrath for posting something along the lines of " I think a pattern change is still a few weeks away from taking place " Simply amazing how hypersensitive some people are when it comes to having an open discussion about winter. A discussion should be about an exchange of thoughts and ideas. It should not be about hurling insults. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What I love is seeing blocking remain in place. The PAC keeps re shuffling duo to MJO loop, but the blocking keeps us in the game throughout. Was just checking out the MJO from that run. But the biggest question, for me personally, is what happens beyond the end of these runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Was just checking out the MJO from that run. But the biggest question, for me personally, is what happens beyond the end of these runs. I do have a question, is phase 7 warm in January in a La Nina? I know it's cold in December. May become important as we keep looping 5 through 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Simply amazing how hypersensitive some people are when it comes to having an open discussion when it comes to discussing winter. A discussion should be about an exchange of thoughts and ideas. It should not be about hurling insults. There's much to more at stake when there are feelings involved. I always wondered about weather discussion boards implementing a "forecasting advisor" role, along with mods. Someone to bring those folks back down to earth. IJS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I do have a question, is phase 7 warm in January in a La Nina? I know it's cold in December. May become important as we keep looping 5 through 8. Well it's complicated and even ensembles are struggling lately. You see how the mjo is on the move in that photo. But you can also see the residual stuff hanging out by the MC and also near South America throughout the whole run. So you can end up with a mash-up pattern with competing influences. I think bluewave has mentioned that before too. It also needs to be strong enough to force anything. Sometimes it isn't. So increased caution is suggested with these charts this particular year. But here's the link for the Italian site where I find them you can check it out. https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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