November 2022

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of November are averaging   47degs.(43/52) or +3.       Basically 10 more days near 50+.      December 03 drop off?

Month to date is   51.7[+2.6].         November should end at     50.6[+2.6].

Reached 55 here yesterday.

Today:    51-55, wind e. to s. to sw., p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM.

47*(53%RH) here at 6am.     46* at 7am.       48* at 8am.       50* at 10am.     52* at Noon.     53* at 1pm.     Reached 54* at 2:30pm.        52* at 6pm.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why are the models so bad?

...what is even worse is the over reliance on the models rather than pattern recognition. 

 

Happy Thanksgiving 

[Snowlover11]

Happy Thanksgiving you turkeys!

Pray for snow.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...what is even worse is the over reliance on the models rather than pattern recognition. 

 

Happy Thanksgiving 

Happy Thanksgiving !!!!

I think people dislike the pattern so much they look to the models to "save" them.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We went from a record -EPO +PNA to a +EPO -PNA in just a few days. So models have a had time figuring out the individual shortwave details. Plus we are getting a 5 sigma Pacific Jet near Alaska.

 

 

 

What caused the big change?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Until we fully develop quantum computing its impossible to handle the amount of calculations necessary to handle long range forecasting. I’m sure we will get there one day, but that’s decades away. 
Heat island was in full effect this morning, icy car when I left Lynbrook for work at 5, almost feels warm in the city in comparison. 

Yes-- and Lynbrook isn't even that far from the city lol.  5 miles from JFK and frosty this morning

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Happy Thanksgiving you turkeys!

Pray for snow.

Happy Thanksgiving turkeys!

*gobble gobble*

 

[EastonSN+]

I did not like the overnight GEFS and EPS ensembles. Hopefully just a one day blip.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I did not like the overnight GEFS and EPS ensembles. Hopefully just a one day blip.

The trend the past few runs have been more -pna and southeast ridge 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The trend the past few runs have been more -pna and southeast ridge 

Yeah will likely come down to how much blocking we get, and if the MJO really does get into 8 as the charts suggest. 

[snowman19]

The trend the past few runs have been more -pna and southeast ridge 

I honestly did not understand why some people thought a huge +PNA was going to pop like 14-15. First off, we have a moderate basin wide La Niña, we have a strong -PDO and the semi permanent Niña driven tropical convective forcing has been over the eastern IO and the Maritime Continent for months now. The -IOD only served to reinforce the background Niña state. This is why the models are dumping the -PNA trough in the west. -PNA can still work here if you have -EPO/-NAO/-AO to go along with it, but you are going to be fighting the SE ridge. We may see RNA for a very good chunk of December

[winterwx21]

Sunday's rain event continues to look less and less impressive. Probably a quarter to half inch. Nice mild weather early to mid next week ... likely mid to upper 50s. 

Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone here has a great one. 

[qg_omega]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah will likely come down to how much blocking we get, and if the MJO really does get into 8 as the charts suggest. 

Blocking will always verify less, negative PNA is real and so is the SE ridge.  Pattern looks warm for the foreseeable future

[donsutherland1]

51 degrees and bright sunshine. If only they knew what is happening today…

[winterwx21]

57 here. Another spectacular late November day. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The trend the past few runs have been more -pna and southeast ridge 

We should be alright as long as the NAO keeps the ridge at bay.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Blocking will always verify less, negative PNA is real and so is the SE ridge.  Pattern looks warm for the foreseeable future

Yes it does for the first week of December. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I honestly did not understand why some people thought a huge +PNA was going to pop like 14-15. First off, we have a moderate basin wide La Niña, we have a strong -PDO and the semi permanent Niña driven tropical convective forcing has been over the eastern IO and the Maritime Continent for months now. The -IOD only served to reinforce the background Niña state. This is why the models are dumping the -PNA trough in the west. -PNA can still work here if you have -EPO/-NAO/-AO to go along with it, but you are going to be fighting the SE ridge. We may see RNA for a very good chunk of December

No one said a big PNA ridge. Everyone was and is still stating that a colder pattern is coming with a negative EPO , negative AO and negative NAO.

[MJO812]

Courtesy of Mid Atlantic subforum

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild. There could be a few showers.

The weekend could see additional rainfall, along with continued mild readings. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +11.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.598 today.

On November 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.248 (RMM). The November 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.165 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal).

 

[snowman19]

No one said a big PNA ridge. Everyone was and is still stating that a colder pattern is coming with a negative EPO , negative AO and negative NAO.

No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No one said a big PNA ridge. Everyone was and is still stating that a colder pattern is coming with a negative EPO , negative AO and negative NAO.

 

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA

[snowman19]

No one said a big PNA ridge. Everyone was and is still stating that a colder pattern is coming with a negative EPO , negative AO and negative NAO.

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

[snowman19]

[CIK62]

UGLY:      And Godot has lost his GPS.......................

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

I agree

Not a KU pattern but a decent pattern. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

Good evening S19 An informed persons honest take, whether it’s substance is something you like or not, is not shocking but instead welcome. Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving. As always ….

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

8” of snow in December is above avg I’ll be happy with that

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

[Roger Smith]

20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Until we fully develop quantum computing its impossible to handle the amount of calculations necessary to handle long range forecasting. I’m sure we will get there one day, but that’s decades away. ...
 

In theory, this approach is not the only possible answer, although it is of course one possible answer (to the question, how could we improve long-range forecasting towards being an exact science? and if so, over what time scale?)

Another possible route is to develop theory that actually works (always what scientists are actually doing, your suggestion is more of an engineering/technological solution). If we don't have such a theory today, we could have one in the future. Why do people believe in the theory of gravitation? Because it works. With the refinements made in special relativity (applying to situations with higher velocities) the theory has been shown to give accurate results. Why does it work? Nobody really knows that, it is based on an equation which described a theory, and that equation gave accurate results. 

There could be such equations hidden away out of our current sight or knowledge, that would help us to make better long-range forecasts. Even so, those equations might not maintain enough accuracy to keep generating good solutions very long intervals into the future. This is, of course, more or less what you're talking about too, except that the equations would be based on an assumption which is not necessarily needed in theoretical physics, that the energy for weather events of the future is already in the atmospheric system.

If the energy is not already in the system, then it has to come from some other place, in theory, those places could be the oceans, the earth's crust or core, the solar system magnetic field that surrounds the atmosphere, the Sun, or deep space. But if the super-computers you describe are only tasked with finding energy in more and more detail in the current atmosphere, then no matter how good they are, they won't give the results sought, because the energy just isn't there now, so how could they possibly predict what might happen once the energy already present has fully dissipated? (something that might take ten days, a month, some part of a year, depends on what kind of energy, but very little of it could survive much beyond a month). 

My theory and therefore my research approach is to assume that the energy comes from beyond the atmosphere. That might make it subject to theoretical prediction, although at the same time that could just be another unpredictable random process we cannot model or predict. If we had good theory now, we could make accurate long-range forecasts for quite some time, perhaps not like a century or a thousand years, but certainly months or even years. It would be a quasi-permanent theoretical solution that might require continuous refinement to ensure it was not off track. It would be like a gravitational equation that depended on periodic measurements of the value of G (in physics, that is assumed to be a constant over long intervals). 

Either way, I think you're correct to assume it will take a lot of computing power and it will come decades in the future, unless I get my act together.