November 2022

[donsutherland1]

The latest teleconnections forecast suggests that the first 10 days of December could see an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern. During the December 1-10, 1990-2021 period, there were two major clusters of 500 mb outcomes that accounted for 70% of all such cases.

The November 22, 2022 12z run of the GEFS suggests an outcome similar to Cluster 1 during the Day 10-14 period with the cold anomalies somewhat farther to the west than shown on the composite.

What's noteworthy is that in both of the most common clusters of outcomes, there was expansive cold in Canada and parts of North America. Should such cold be present, there could be some potential for snowfall during the first half of December as the cold possibly tries to press eastward. All of the cases in Cluster 1 saw one or more snowfalls during the first half of December.

In sum, there's some potential for wintry weather in the extended range. Of course, the forecast state of the teleconnections is subject to uncertainty at such extended timeframes.

[SHELEG]

The possibility on Dec 7th or 8th has my attention.

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yup! Thanks for posting this. Looks like a clear reflection of all the energy diving into the SW in the near to mid range.

What are your thoughts as we move into the second week of Dec? 

Attached what I look at once/day... and so after this more seasonable or above normal stretch... NAEFS (at least 50 members GFS/CMC) cools down here toward the 5th or so of Dec as the block is evidenced over Greenland.  Hope yes... but reality tbd.  

I looked at yesterdays 00z/22 extended GEFS through 800 hours and it appears the 500MB jet is constantly over the mid Atlantic states (more or less W-E). I see that as N-S thermal gradient in the eastern USA and fairly frequent waves of low press-cfp's here with wintry mix opportunity...but from what I can tell, snow-ice most favorable for the I84 corridor. Climo would say that as well. I just can't confidently tell about ECS in the ensembles, beyond 5 or 6 days. That's why I don't comment much in LR, unless I run with a very broad overview, allowing for the various options.

So for now... I 84 corridor northward smattering of minor brief snow-ice prior to Dec 5. After that, improved chances-again that's climo. The good news... in my opinion WAR not likely after the 5th of Dec, for a week or two. At least the shopping windows will be viewed in somewhat wintry chill.   

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 57°

The remainder of November will be generally milder than normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 51.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 53.4°

[bluewave]

The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing  height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either.

 

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing  height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either.

 

 

Models are starting to look pretty good for early December . Hopefully they can hold it.

We can see the negative NAO getting established before 300 hours on the ensembles.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to look pretty good for early December . Hopefully they can hold it.

We can see the negative NAO getting established before 300 hours on the ensembles.

We’ll probably need another week or so to see if they hold. The EPS has the best looking early December pattern we have seen in a while. But the model skill recently has been very low even at 5 days so we have to be patient on this one.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll probably need another week or so to see if they hold. The EPS has the best looking early December pattern we have seen in a while. But the model skill recently has been very low even at 5 days so we have to be patient on this one.

Exactly

But it's promising the negative NAO keeps moving it. Still not there yet.

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of November are averaging    47degs.(42/52) or +2.

About 70% of the band is AN or Normal by Dec.09 and lowest heights are to our east.     We should be in go stead with this Week 1 of December.

 

Month to date is    51.9[+2.7].        November should end at    50.6[+2.6]---just out of the Top Ten---and why not---since it was still #1 after Day 18.

Reached 51 here yesterday.

Today: 51-54, wind w. to nw., m. sunny, 41 tomorrow AM.

43*(53%RH) here at 6am.     44* at 9am.      48* at 10am.      50* at 11am.     51* at Noon.      52* at 1pm.     53* at 1:30pm.      Reached 55* from 3pm-4:30pm.       54* at 5pm.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing  height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either.

 

 

Great post as usual.

Would love the EPS outcome, while fearing the GEPS.

I do think that the GEFS outcome would work in December. That look screams to me 1 to 3 inches of snow to ice to rain SWFEs. Not perfect, but they could add up snowfall stat wise. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post as usual.

Would love the EPS outcome, while fearing the GEPS.

I do think that the GEFS outcome would work in December. That look screams to me 1 to 3 inches of snow to ice to rain SWFEs. Not perfect, but they could add up snowfall stat wise. 

After last December's snowless blowtorch I will take anything 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

After last December's snowless blowtorch I will take anything 

I think we all would

[SnowGoose69]

LOL, FOK airport is 20 degrees colder than HWV and 26 colder than E Hampton...I have seen those differences between there and NYC but never the 2 closest airports 

[psv88]

28 this morning, colder than forecast. Already 51. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post as usual.

Would love the EPS outcome, while fearing the GEPS.

I do think that the GEFS outcome would work in December. That look screams to me 1 to 3 inches of snow to ice to rain SWFEs. Not perfect, but they could add up snowfall stat wise. 

Models have been in full push back mode recently. The upper upper low in SW that was supposed to come through Friday is delayed even more. Yesterday the models had a early Sunday passage. Now the morning looks dry with a later day or evening for the storm to come through. Maybe the high temperatures can overperform with 60° possible on Long Island.

 

12 Wednesday run

 

12z Tuesday run

 

 

[qg_omega]

Blocking will likely fade away as we approach and PAC is not good, not promising

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Blocking will likely fade away as we approach and PAC is not good, not promising

[nyrangers1022]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

After last December's snowless blowtorch I will take anything 

I love the Xmas blowtorches.   Guarantees that I don't have to work pushing snow and be home with family.  Also it's awesome seeing neighborhood kids on Xmas riding their new bikes and playing outside with their new toys in short sleeves 

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

I love the Xmas blowtorches.   Guarantees that I don't have to work pushing snow and be home with family.  Also it's awesome seeing neighborhood kids on Xmas riding their new bikes and playing outside with their new toys in short sleeves 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Blocking will likely fade away as we approach and PAC is not good, not promising

Right on cue

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Good afternoon Nibor. Don’t know how you do it or where you find them. Magnificent, as always. 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

I love the Xmas blowtorches.   Guarantees that I don't have to work pushing snow and be home with family.  Also it's awesome seeing neighborhood kids on Xmas riding their new bikes and playing outside with their new toys in short sleeves 

Yeah if it makes you have to work I get it.   Certainly would not want to be called into work on xmas eve/day

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models have been in full push back mode recently. The upper upper low in SW that was supposed to come through Friday is delayed even more. Yesterday the models had a early Sunday passage. Now the morning looks dry with a later day or evening for the storm to come through. Maybe the high temperatures can overperform with 60° possible on Long Island.

 

12 Wednesday run

 

12z Tuesday run

 

 

The models are showing lower rain amounts now too. 12z GFS less than a quarter inch, and Euro a quarter to half inch for most. 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS looks even better to me. A bit delayed but more on line with EPS.

[winterwx21]

57 degrees here. Beautiful day. 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

57 degrees here. Beautiful day. 

It's ideal hoodie weather which is my favorite.

I wouldn't mind it staying in the 50s until there's a snowstorm 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's ideal hoodie weather which is my favorite.

I wouldn't mind it staying in the 50s until there's a snowstorm 

Yeah this beats 30s and 40s for sure. 

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's ideal hoodie weather which is my favorite.

I wouldn't mind it staying in the 50s until there's a snowstorm 

I agree. This weather is perfect for late November. I'm going outside for a run right now, and it's just warm enough that I can do it without a sweatshirt on. Love it. 

[EasternLI]

I agree. Beautiful day today. 

I also agree with @bluewave

A guarded optimism is how I'm going. The tropical looks have had a large spread in the longer term between individual members. Saw that last year too. Need things to settle down some. Different looks this year though. We're getting some nice ones more often than not and the picture is not similar to last year, to me. Record Pacific warm pool driving the record -pna last year. We don't have that this time. The AAM state is also completely different. The volcano from last year is a wild card. The NAO look is legit. 

We do seem to see some nice ingredients this year. Does mother nature forget to set the timer? Or does dinner come out amazing?

TBD 

 

 

[snowman19]

Right on cue

The PNA was never supposed to be favorable