November 2022

[wdrag]

My full post in nw-ne suburbs... but I plan on NYC seeing flurries this evening with measurable snowfall in stripes from near Philly to north of I84...most of the impact nw NJ/e PA/ se NYS and CT---in stripes. Basically T-1" in a 1 to 2 hour period 4P-midnight. NYC melts on contact (probably), presuming am correct about the large low lvl moist unstable sounding  producing flurries to NYC and measurable to the west and north.  Consistently modeled since at least back to 00z/17 cycle. 

[EasternLI]

Just a fwiw post, but I find it promising to see this action by South America during the 2nd half of November. If the hope is to avoid a ratter of a la nina. The lousy la nina years did not do this. Some of the better ones, did. I find this extremely interesting and thought it was worth a mention. 

[MJO812]

Down to 32 here in south Brooklyn for the first time this season. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and cold. Parts of the region could see snow flurries and show showers from late afternoon into the evening. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 44°

Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.0°; 15-Year: 54.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.0°

[Dark Star]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I wish I lived there

How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

Maybe arrive the day before ?

[EasternLI]

I would highly recommend not driving through lake effect. Been there. The hood starts to disappear....

[David-LI]

Latest HRRR showing some small accumulation tonight

Take it with a grain of “salt”

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We've had quite a few La Ninas with average to above average snowfall totals.

 

Yup. 2 years ago was a la Nina and we all had above average snow. 17/18 before that.

[bluewave]

The storm track in about a week will probably come down to how amplified the system is. The OP Euro was more amplified so the low cuts to our west and goes negative tilt. The ensemble mean was more positive tilt with the trough so the low takes more of a coastal track. Sometimes the ensembles smooth things out too much longer range. So we still don’t know if this will be cutter, hugger, or coastal track. The other possibility is that we get a primary crossing the lakes and the secondary gets going too late and favors New England.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    41degs.(36/46) or -4.

Looking rather ordinary after the 22nd.      At least no runaway heat.

Month to date is    56.1[+6.1].         Should be    51.2[+2.8] by the 26th.

Reached 45 here yesterday.

Today:  40-43, wind w.-breezy, p. sunny, 33 tomorrow AM.

36*(66%RH) here at 6am.       35* at 7am.      36* at 8am.     39* at 11am.     40* at Noon.       41* at 1pm.       Reached 44* around 3pm.        38* @ 8:30PM WITH WET SNOWFLAKES!

[Tatamy]

54 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

I will share a personal experience.  Many years ago I was driving my sister back to school at SUNY Oswego from LI after Christmas.  We drove up I-81 to the Syracuse area and proceeded to turn onto 481 to complete the trip.  It was late in the day and the sun was hitting the side of towering CU that made up the band.  It would have a great picture if I had a phone camera (this was 40 years ago so these were not yet invented).  We proceeded to drive into it and road conditions rapidly deteriorated.  It turned dark and the snow was falling so hard that it was blinding in the headlights.  The flakes were large and fluffy.  I found that since a plow had recently passed the black top was visible.  I ended up driving with the headlights off for a time and could actually see a lot better with the blacktop as a back drop.  We eventually had to turn off due to the conditions.  FWIW Reed Timmer is chasing the band near Buffalo so you can follow him.

[SnoSki14]

LR looked pretty crappy again

Arctic blocking too weak and pacific ridging breaks down. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I will share a personal experience.  Many years ago I was driving my sister back to school at SUNY Oswego from LI after Christmas.  We drove up I-81 to the Syracuse area and proceeded to turn onto 481 to complete the trip.  It was late in the day and the sun was hitting the side of towering CU that made up the band.  It would have a great picture if I had a phone camera (this was 40 years ago so these were not yet invented).  We proceeded to drive into it and road conditions rapidly deteriorated.  It turned dark and the snow was falling so hard that it was blinding in the headlights.  The flakes were large and fluffy.  I found that since a plow had recently passed the black top was visible.  I ended up driving with the headlights off for a time and could actually see a lot better with the blacktop as a back drop.  We eventually had to turn off due to the conditions.  FWIW Reed Timmer is chasing the band near Buffalo so you can follow him.

The best way to chase it is to stay out of the heaviest bands.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

I would highly recommend not driving through lake effect. Been there. The hood starts to disappear....

Or stay on the outer edges.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Down to 32 here in south Brooklyn for the first time this season. 

Was this the official low at JFK?

[Snowlover11]

I have driven thru lake effect snow before maybe 7-8 years ago and what an experience.  We went from clear skies to a full on blizzard in the matter of less than a few miles. I was driving an Acura Tsx at the time and that thing handled like a snowmobile.  Everyone and there mother and fathers where stuck on the side of the roads and I even saw a construction van sitting in a pond off the side of the highway. I took I-90 all the way to I-81 and went up past watertown on my way to Massena.  at one point there had to be a few feet on the ground and atleast a few inches on the highway.  Needless to say when i arrived at my destination i had a foot+ of ice buildup under my car.

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

LR looked pretty crappy again

Arctic blocking too weak and pacific ridging breaks down. 

It's following the MJO progression. We will get another colder period once it gets back into 7 and 8

 The loop seems to be 5678 repeat. So the bad pac is on target timing wise. Mid December looks to be the next window.

[donsutherland1]

Some reference points for the EPO while we wait for the November 16 value to be posted.

Meters:
Lowest: 504.41 meters below normal, December 24, 1983

Standardized*:
Lowest: -3.923, May 1, 1989

*-Standardized on a monthly basis using the NCEI's longest reference period (1951-2010).

[psv88]

26 this morning, coldest of the season 

[jm1220]

59 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I have driven thru lake effect snow before maybe 7-8 years ago and what an experience.  We went from clear skies to a full on blizzard in the matter of less than a few miles. I was driving an Acura Tsx at the time and that thing handled like a snowmobile.  Everyone and there mother and fathers where stuck on the side of the roads and I even saw a construction van sitting in a pond off the side of the highway. I took I-90 all the way to I-81 and went up past watertown on my way to Massena.  at one point there had to be a few feet on the ground and atleast a few inches on the highway.  Needless to say when i arrived at my destination i had a foot+ of ice buildup under my car.

When I was at Penn State there were brief lake effect bands that made it there a few times and they were quite an experience. Once right before Easter there was 5” of snow in 90 minutes. Very fluffy and was gone the next day. Much more often there are blinding snow squalls that last 5 minutes and coat the ground, but cause spin outs/accidents everywhere. 

[David-LI]

12z runs lowering any chance we had on seeing flurries tonight

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

It’s amazing if you’re in the 15 mile swath where the band is, but outside of it meh. The northern half of Buffalo looks like it sees half or less what was forecast because the band orientation is a few miles further south than forecast, and the usual spots south of the city get the best snow. 

[bluewave]

Around 38° may be the magic number for getting snow showers this evening across the area. Could be some localized heavy snow bursts with the mesos indicating surface based cape. WSW flow could add some ocean enhancement to the snow across parts of LI that are away from the warmer immediate beaches which could stay as rain at 40°. Simulated radar loops looking unusually convective for late November. So a few rumbles of thunder will be possible.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, David-LI said:

12z runs lowering any chance we had on seeing flurries tonight

Not the Nam

 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track in about a week will probably come down to how amplified the system is. The OP Euro was more amplified so the low cuts to our west and goes negative tilt. The ensemble mean was more positive tilt with the trough so the low takes more of a coastal track. Sometimes the ensembles smooth things out too much longer range. So we still don’t know if this will be cutter, hugger, or coastal track. The other possibility is that we get a primary crossing the lakes and the secondary gets going too late and favors New England.

 

Like last night's Euro, 12z GFS and GGEM are showing rain for next friday. GFS so warm that the rain goes well up into Canada. A long way to go and this certainly has some potential, but right now rain is looking more likely. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Like last night's Euro, 12z GFS and GGEM are showing rain for next friday. GFS so warm that the rain goes well up into Canada. A long way to go and this certainly has some potential, but right now rain is looking more likely. 

Blocking is too weak and doesn't hold 50/50 in place

Models are flip flopping a lot though 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The models are still going back and forth with the storm track for late next week and pending 50/50 low. CMC while showing rain for most areas aside from northern NY State and Ontario-Quebec has shifted its storm track well to the south and east from last night. But the ECMWF has become a bit more La Nina-ish with a less amplified ridge out west. I think in the end initially southern storms might tend to cut while Alberta Clippers may or may not but behind each one a reinforcing shot of icy cold air. We just have to wait and see how this pattern develops. Snow showers and flurries later this afternoon and evening could set the mood.

WX/PT

[jm1220]

That band near Watertown-yikes. Not as much attention on that one as Buffalo but I’m sure there are 3-4 ft totals there too. 

[gravitylover]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That band near Watertown-yikes. Not as much attention on that one as Buffalo but I’m sure there are 3-4 ft totals there too. 

I just went through the Mesonet cams from that area and only 1 or 2 show anything of consequence.