November 2022

[Rmine1]

Summit cam Mount Snow 

 

 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Lake effect is great but I would be really pissed if I'm like 5 miles too far north or south of any band 

There are a lot of accounts from people who have experienced just that up there.  Plenty of videos on social media showing this as well (Chaser videos specifically).  

[uofmiami]

52 minutes ago, Rjay said:

NWS put areas just south of Buffalo at 48-60"

I had seen last night’s HRRR had 70.9” in that area, no surprise NWS upped totals in that area.  Going to be some nice videos coming out from that area for sure.  Latest run showing 60” hence NWS going for it.

 

 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There are a lot of accounts from people who have experienced just that up there.  Plenty of videos on social media showing this as well (Chaser videos specifically).  

At least areas up there get 70-100 Inches of snow yearly .

[bluewave]

First snow showers/squalls of the season here Friday evening.

 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Note: fwiw...have tempo posted in nw suburbs... but fwiw...NYC may see a slight amount of snow (1" west of NYC?) late Friday...multiple mesoscale models with the event.

Continues with 12z HRRR.

[Nibor]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

At least areas up there get 70-100 Inches of snow yearly .

My family’s summer house in Chautauqua county averages 150 inches a year. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

There are a lot of accounts from people who have experienced just that up there.  Plenty of videos on social media showing this as well (Chaser videos specifically).  

That being said, the good part is that it's predictable where the best bands will set up so if you really want to be in them, you know exactly what counties to live in.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

My family’s summer house in Chautauqua county averages 150 inches a year. 

How's the weather up there in the first couple of weeks of April?  Wondering where the best place would be to set up for the April 8, 2024 total solar eclipse.  Thinking somewhere between Syracuse and Watertown as if now.

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How's the weather up there in the first couple of weeks of April?  Wondering where the best place would be to set up for the April 8, 2024 total solar eclipse.  Thinking somewhere between Syracuse and Watertown as if now.

problem that time of year is cloud decks coming off the still cold lake waters...so get as far away from the lakes as possible but still in the totality path.

[binbisso]

I guess we can kiss the late November moderation goodbye. Temps below freezing for highs on turkey day. Looks like we may erase the record positive departures. That would be impressive 

[dmillz25]

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

problem that time of year is cloud decks coming off the still cold lake waters...so get as far away from the lakes as possible but still in the totality path.

Sounds like Syracuse is a lot better than Watertown (although close to the edge of totality so 1.5 min of totality vs 3.75 min; maybe somewhere in between is even better.)

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, binbisso said:

I guess we can kiss the late November moderation goodbye. Temps below freezing for highs on turkey day. Looks like we may erase the record positive departures. That would be impressive 

Too early. The warm up in December will fuck us for the start of winter

 

Snowing and absolutely winter-like in Detroit

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

First snow showers/squalls of the season here Friday evening.

 

This event is showing up in a lot of the 12z runs as Walt has noted.  The area most likely to be impacted looks to be western and NW NJ and adjacent PA.  This looks to be tied to the passage of a Vorticity max through those areas tomorrow evening.

[Volcanic Winter]

Feel like a kid in a candy store reading this thread right now. 
 

Barely two weeks ago I was getting off a plane walking outside of EWR with serious swamp-ass into a torch. 
 

Now it’s basically January in November with a serious winter pattern potentially unfolding? 
 

Cracking open my first good winter beer tonight. 
 

… and I’m ready to look back longingly at this comment when things switch gears again and it’s 60-70 degrees instead. 

[bluewave]

Pretty good coastal signal on the day 8-9 EPS. 

 

[MJO812]

Nice storm signal next week on the models.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

This does not look very La Nina-ish. Brrrr. We'll see.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty good coastal signal on the day 8-9 EPS. 

 

Ingredients are there just going to matter placement of the low 

[brooklynwx99]

this is absolutely loaded

everything is there for a significant storm: strong +PNA ridge, anticyclonic wave breaking in Canada forced by the -NAO, anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave

can't really look any better a week out, let's see what happens

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ingredients are there just going to matter placement of the low 

I think the OP run was holding the energy back too long in the SW so it squashed the southern stream.  The EPS had a bunch of nice coastal hits among the 50 members as the low ejects faster than the OP. Looks similar to the GEPS. We just don’t want such a quick ejection that the the low ends up hugging the coast like the GFS or cuts like the OP GEM. But a genuine storm signal of some type is there.

[Roger Smith]

This month could see a record differential between first and second half temperatures for November ... at NYC where the average drop is 5.6 deg in mean temperature (1-15 to 16-30 Nov), these are the top eight differentials:

1 __ 1880 ___ 20.1 (49.0 to 28.9) ___ 2022 (57.8 to ???) needs to average 37.6 to beat this

2 __ 1938 ___ 16.8 (56.7 to 39.9) ___ any second half 37.8 to 40.9 gives 2022 second place

3 __ 2008 ___ 16.0 (53.8 to 37.8)

4 __ 1888 ___ 15.9 (53.1 to 37.2)

5t__ 1903 ___ 15.0 (49.6 to 34.6)

5t__ 1936 ___ 15.0 (50.2 to 35.2)

7 __ 1974 ___ 14.8 (55.6 to 40.8)

8 __ 1929 ___ 14.5 (53.4 to 38.9) ___ a 2022 second half of 43.3 would tie with this final contender

_____________________________________

Of these, only 1938 and 1974 had notably warm starts, although most including 1903 had a couple of warm days. In 1880 it was more of a change from variable near normal to extreme cold which then persisted (at least intermittently) for much of the winter that followed. Despite the warm start in 1975, that second half was still above normal and the drop was only 10.2 deg. 

As these are mean temperatures, it should be noted that even a small diurnal range around 6-8 deg would imply that mean maxima are 3-4 above the values discussed above. 

 

 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

December will probably come down to how the WP warm pool influences the MJO. The cold pattern coming up and record -EPO is a rough match for MJO 6 in November. We need the MJO to continue into 7 to maintain that -EPO into December. The EPS now gets us to phase 7 in early December. The duration of the -NAO this time of year is tricky since it can depend on wave breaks to keep it going. Those are outside the range of the longer range guidance. So we want to keep the Pacific as favorable as possible since it’s has such a big influence on our weather.

 

 

 

 

It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again: 

 

[brooklynwx99]

super interesting pattern evolution upcoming and snowman is finding tweets from teenagers that talk about factors that may lead to a warm pattern in the E US

love to see it

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

super interesting pattern evolution upcoming and snowman is finding tweets from teenagers that talk about factors that may lead to a warm pattern in the E US

love to see it

I didn't quite get that with that post. Usually the warm weather posts are much more overt.

This one did mention the east coast trough at least and subsequent storm signal 

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

super interesting pattern evolution upcoming and snowman is finding tweets from teenagers that talk about factors that may lead to a warm pattern in the E US

love to see it

That tweet chain actually mentioned the possible storm after Thanksgiving and how it ties in with the Niña forcing but good try

[ILoveWinter]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That tweet chain actually mentioned the possible storm after Thanksgiving and how it ties in with the Niña forcing but good try

It's more about your reputation and the way you framed your post: It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again.  

Would it kill you to actually say there is at least a shot next week?!

Anyway, someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this is the first real trackable period in November since 2018 with that storm that overperformed and where NYC was unprepared for snow removal.

[Nibor]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That tweet chain actually mentioned the possible storm after Thanksgiving and how it ties in with the Niña forcing but good try

[Dan76]

Half-ass lakes cutter on the GFS.