495weatherguy Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, s2sailorlis said: born and raised in Buffalo. if they can keep it under 3 feet they'll be fine! was there for the Blizzard of '77. go Bills! lol. On your forecast, the amount expected goes up to 96 inches--Have never seen this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I just wanna say that those temperatures are above normal but nothing too extreme…normal high is right around 50 at that time of year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Yes possible big rain storm around thanksgiving with very warm temps The latest GFS was a cave towards the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I mean we have people complaining about day 6 snow maps, maybe we dont post 8 day surface temps either if thats the case. Just a thought. 6 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 hours ago, jconsor said: As a follow-up to the climate shift you mentioned since around 2011, this is interesting: Regardless those were both very snowy winters weren't they? 14-15 and 17-18 were both extremely backloaded winters too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Overnight parts of the Northeast saw some snow. Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 16 4 pm include: Albany: 1.5" (0.5" above normal) Binghamton: 2.6" (0.8" below normal) Caribou: 7.6" (1.9" above normal) Buffalo: 0.3" (3.3" below normal) ***a significant lake effect snow event will occur through Saturday*** Burlington: 3.0" (0.8" above normal) Scranton: 1.2" (0.8" below normal) In the wake of the storm that brought some frozen precipitation to the distant New York City suburbs, the generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week. The season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +19.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.305 today. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.511 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I think just south of Buffalo has a shot at 60"+ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 We can work with this 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 @bluewave @donsutherland1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 This month, first half similar to 1975, second half begins to look like 1875. Some very cold maps on 00z GFS run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: We can work with this Euro also lost the big lakes cutter for Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 35 degrees here in Brooklyn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 46° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.6° Newark: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 54.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.4° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/45) or -5. This is tail end snow from 0Z GFS. It represents a part of the 2"-3" of rain falling as snow late in the event. All snow gone on the 06Z, but rain stays. EURO misses to the south. Special Note......Research the PORTLAND BLIZZARD---Nov. 26-27, 1898---NYC seems to have gotten 19" during a 3 day period then. Looks like it was a phase of moisture from the GoM and Polar Jet---like now? Month to date is 57.0[+6.8]. Should be 51.3[+2.8] by the 25th. Reached 51 here yesterday. Today: 42-47, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds, 36 tomorrow AM. 38*(66%RH) here at 6am. 41* at 10am. 43* at Noon. Reached 45* at 3pm. 39* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Note: fwiw...have tempo posted in nw suburbs... but fwiw...NYC may see a slight amount of snow (1" west of NYC?) late Friday...multiple mesoscale models with the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Interesting set up for next week. Something to watch if anything 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Interesting set up for next week. Something to watch if anything This is probably the biggest day 6-10 full EPS mean shift in one run in a long time. Much more Pacific blocking holds on after this record -EPO. So it’s not just one of these overamped OP runs with no ensemble support. 0z 12z 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Sure hope the gfs knows to cave back again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 15 hours ago, jconsor said: As a follow-up to the climate shift you mentioned since around 2011, this is interesting: The strongest full Novembers for -EPO blocking at the 500 mb level were 2019, 2018, 2014, 2013, 1996, and 1978. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I had some flurries here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 if only it was a month from now. either way, this is a pretty ideal setup as depicted on the EPS with an anomalous ridge out west, decaying blocking over Hudson Bay, and a deep 50/50 ULL near Nova Scotia. can't draw it up that much better than this the west based -NAO and subsequent 50/50 help force strong HP over SE Canada. if the block is for real, which seems to be the case at this point, then we should see that HP trend stronger in that area as it's downstream of a ridge (promotes upper level convergence and surface divergence -> sinking motion) don't be totally fooled by the time of year. although climo is relatively hostile in late November, this setup can provide ample cold air as shown by the the 00z ECMWF OP, and sun angle is low. there is certainly an elevated risk for winter weather even down to the Mid-Atlantic given all of these pieces in place over the next few days, the most important features to watch will be the blocking and 50/50. if blocking trends stronger or the 50/50 trends farther west, we will see odds for a significant event increase, and vice versa it's still around a week out, so much will change, but it's definitely encouraging to see legit -NAO blocking show up this early in the season happy model watching! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 It’s very extreme to get a 581 dm ridge in Alaska during November. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The strongest full Novembers for -EPO blocking at the 500 mb level were 2019, 2018, 2014, 2013, 1996, and 1978. Thanks for this. 14/15, 13/14 (not sure about 78/79) turned out to be great winters. I am guessing it depends on what far east the EPO blocking sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks for this. 14/15, 13/14 (not sure about 78/79) turned out to be great winters. I am guessing it depends on what far east the EPO blocking sets up. December will probably come down to how the WP warm pool influences the MJO. The cold pattern coming up and record -EPO is a rough match for MJO 6 in November. We need the MJO to continue into 7 to maintain that -EPO into December. The EPS now gets us to phase 7 in early December. The duration of the -NAO this time of year is tricky since it can depend on wave breaks to keep it going. Those are outside the range of the longer range guidance. So we want to keep the Pacific as favorable as possible since it’s has such a big influence on our weather. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if only it was a month from now. either way, this is a pretty ideal setup as depicted on the EPS with an anomalous ridge out west, decaying blocking over Hudson Bay, and a deep 50/50 ULL near Nova Scotia. can't draw it up that much better than this the west based -NAO and subsequent 50/50 help force strong HP over SE Canada. if the block is for real, which seems to be the case at this point, then we should see that HP trend stronger in that area as it's downstream of a ridge (promotes upper level convergence and surface divergence -> sinking motion) don't be totally fooled by the time of year. although climo is relatively hostile in late November, this setup can provide ample cold air as shown by the the 00z ECMWF OP, and sun angle is low. there is certainly an elevated risk for winter weather even down to the Mid-Atlantic given all of these pieces in place over the next few days, the most important features to watch will be the blocking and 50/50. if blocking trends stronger or the 50/50 trends farther west, we will see odds for a significant event increase, and vice versa it's still around a week out, so much will change, but it's definitely encouraging to see legit -NAO blocking show up this early in the season happy model watching! Nice storm signal next week. Big change from 12z to 0z euro and eps run. Nice blocking to the north on the eps. Still a while to go so like you said , happy tracking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Great Buffalo cam if anyone wants to view it https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Great Buffalo cam if anyone wants to view it https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza Looks like a sunny morning in progress. According to the morning disco from Buffalo NWS with the approach of a shortwave this evening the flow will back around to the SW. This will initiate the setup of the band that will impact Buffalo. The snow is expected to begin around 8 PM there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: Looks like a sunny morning in progress. According to the morning disco from Buffalo NWS with the approach of a shortwave this evening the flow will back around to the SW. This will initiate the setup of the band that will impact Buffalo. The snow is expected to begin around 8 PM there. Lake effect is great but I would be really pissed if I'm like 5 miles too far north or south of any band 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Potential 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 10 hours ago, Rjay said: I think just south of Buffalo has a shot at 60"+ NWS put areas just south of Buffalo at 48-60" 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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