November 2022

[MJO812]

The lake effect areas are going to get crushed coming up.

I wish I had time to chase it 

[SRRTA22]

Also 29 for the low 

[the_other_guy]

27F in Hastings on Hudson.

 

Finally!!!!

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

27F in Hastings on Hudson.

 

Finally!!!!

This isn't your first freeze is it?

Still waiting for that here, mid 30s, will likely get a hard freeze this weekend when the highs are in the upper 30s and lows are in the mid 20s-- January weather lol.

[hudsonvalley21]

23 for the low here.

[Snowlover11]

got down to 27

[gravitylover]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The lake effect areas are going to get crushed coming up.

I wish I had time to chase it 

I'm supposed to go pick my kid up from school in Brockport. Wanna take a (slow) ride with me? You'll have to look the other way when I stop at one of the Seneca reservation weed stores

[dmillz25]

33 was the low here

[lee59]

First freeze here, 28 was the low, now 36.

[bluewave]

Islip ties the latest first freeze on record. Low of 29° on November 15th. The 2nd latest date was in 2016.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

			First	Value
			11-15 (1984)	29
			11-15 (2022)	29
			11-14( 2016)	32
			11-12 (1981)	31
			11-12 (1977)	32
			11-12 (1994)	32

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

I got down to 28 in my cold little corner near the Pine Barrens. Warmed up to mid 30’s with the clouds overnight. 
 

All I’m asking for is a Dec holiday period where I’m not damn near in shorts. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. We’re due an interesting Dec, and this right now is a nice early start. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   38degs.(34/42) or -8.        From Friday to Wednesday should have lows close to 32 or less here.      Warmup near Thanksgiving period, but maybe still BN by a smaller amount.     btw:   Outlook for Kiev, Ukraine is to go below 32 by Friday and stay there day and night for the rest of the month.       They average about 7 or 8 degrees less than we do around here to begin with.

EPO from Off the Chart N---- to Neutral and hopefully back N --- again.      Other TC's are not wildly for or against further BN weather in December.

GFSext.Ens.  for the next 30 days.    The CFS is even colder nationwide.      Stand By.

Month to date is   59.1[+8.6].         Should be    51.4[+2.6] by the 23rd.

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:    44-46, wind e., becoming overcast, rain by 6pm, 46 tomorrow AM.

38*(55%RH) here at 6am.       40* at 8am.       43* at 9am.      44* at 10am.      46* at 11am.      Reached  47* at Noon et al.      45* at 7pm, rain.       41* at 10pm.rain.

[tdp146]

29.5. First freeze. 

[FPizz]

26

[bluewave]

While the long range guidance has some Greenland Blocking, it tries to link up with the SE Ridge due to the +EPO and -PNA. This is what happened last December when the MJO  looped back into 6 after going into 7. So the pattern will get very mild if there is another phase 6 stall. We would need a smooth progression from 7 into 8 for a colder pattern.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the long range guidance has some Greenland Blocking, it tries to link up with the SE Ridge due to the +EPO and -PNA in the EPS and GEPS. So it’s always a challenge to get a favorable Pacific with a La Niña. The EPS and GEM take the MJO into 7 but loop it back into 6. This is what happened last December when it got very mild. We would need the GFS MJO going further into 7 and then 8 for a colder pattern. Plenty of time to monitor how things work out.
 

 

 

And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)

[TWCCraig]

28.8 or 29 if you round, was the low here before clouds moved in

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)

Agree!  I'd not set my hopes to high for a cold December.  Lots of uncertainty in my opinion.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Agree!  I'd not set my hopes to high for a cold December.  Lots of uncertainty in my opinion.

If we want a snowy winter here we have to hope for at least one decent Dec event. Dec with below normal snow almost always portends a lousy winter overall in a Nina. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Agree!  I'd not set my hopes to high for a cold December.  Lots of uncertainty in my opinion.

Pray for a cold/snowy December. During a Niña, when December is warmer than normal with below average snow it bodes very, very poorly for the rest of winter

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)

I'm not getting my hopes up until this Nina crap finally goes away. Consider any snow a blessing 

[Nibor]

I’ll gladly take the blocking. 

[SnowGoose69]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Pray for a cold/snowy December. During a Niña, when December is warmer than normal with below average snow it bodes very, very poorly for the rest of winter

 

Not sure what the staying power of this Nina is though with the funky angular momentum values recently and the waffling SOI the last few months....its possible the atmospheric coupling is not going to be there as we have seen recently in both ENSO phases at times.

[495weatherguy]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)

Are you saying that December may be mild?

 

[sussexcountyobs]

23.9° here this morning. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Are you saying that December may be mild?

 

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave,  If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave,  If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago 

Yeah, the location of the MJO forcing will probably determine the December pattern again. The loop back into phase 6 last December muted the influence of the normally colder phase 7. So the pattern stayed warm the whole month. It didn’t get cold until January when the MJO finally went into 8. The record warm pool near Indonesia in the Phase 6 area will probably give us a decent warm up late November into early December. The question then is does the MJO try to go into 7 or get stuck in the warmer Phase 6 again?

 

 

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave,  If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago 

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t go full Nina roaring flat Pacific jet and MJO lock in Phase 6 like we saw as this Nina got underway 3 seasons ago. I’m not thrilled about the marine heatwave popping up again north of Australia and cool western Indian Ocean. That’s helped wreck our Pacific pattern in the past. As long as the Aleutian ridge can spike to near the Arctic Circle we’ll at least have cold air nearby. 

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the location of the MJO forcing will probably determine the December pattern again. The loop back into phase 6 last December muted the influence of the normally colder phase 7. So the pattern stayed warm the whole month. It didn’t get cold until January when the MJO finally went into 8. The record warm pool near Indonesia in the Phase 6 area will probably give us a decent warm up late November into early December. The question then is does the MJO try to go into 7 or get stuck in the warmer Phase 6 again?

 

 

Those very warm waters north of Australia are concerning and here’s why: 

 

[psv88]

27 this morning