November 2022

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and very cool today. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 48°

Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 54.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.5°; 15-Year: 55.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 56.4°

Typically a high of 46 indicates a low of 32 the next night for NYC as long as the skies are clear.

 

[Snowlover11]

34 here in Nanunet.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is a thread the needle pattern isn't it

 

It mostly looks like a cold and dry pattern after Wednesday as we get our first freeze by next weekend. This is one of the strongest -EPO patterns on record coming up for this time of year. Maybe we can catch a stray streamer from the Great Lakes for some flurries. EPS starting to show Greenland Blocking near the end of the month. 
 

 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It mostly looks like a cold and dry pattern after Wednesday as we get our first freeze by next weekend. This is one of the strongest -EPO patterns on record coming up for this time of year. Maybe we can catch a stray streamer from the Great Lakes for some flurries. EPS starting to show Greenland Blocking near the end of the month. 
 

 

That pattern sure does look a bit like Dec 2010.  I saw some throw that one around as an analog in recent days...at least that first 10-15 days of that month had the vortex look over the ERN GOA but the -NAO  as well

[North and West]

36F
waiting for this first freeze this year is worse than waiting for election results in America
 
Although Belleayre did turn on the snow guns, so there is that…

Where are you guys? Never ceases to amaze me the wide range here. We’ve been 28° or lower many times already this year.


.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Way too much -EPO suppression of the southern stream. Notice how the 0z OP Euro went back to the ensemble mean as expected. The hugger on Wednesday suppresses the SE Ridge.

Suppression is always the risk with a strong -EPO pattern. It looks like tropical forcing goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent at the end of this month for awhile. It should allow for a mild up for a bit then the question becomes what comes after?

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Typically a high of 46 indicates a low of 32 the next night for NYC as long as the skies are clear.

 

We’ll probably have to wait for the weekend for NYC’s first freeze.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    40degs.(36/44) or -6.

Month to date is   60.5[+9.8].       Should be   52.7[+3.8] by the 22nd.

Here is the GFSens. for the rest of November.      39.0[34/43] or -6.       November would end a little AN, near 48+:

Reached 63 yesterday {at 1am overnight}

Today:   44-47, wind nw., m. sunny, 36 tomorrow AM.

39* at 6am.-held for 3 hours.      40* at 9am.     45* at 2pm.       Reached 47* at 4pm.      44* at 5pm.

[donsutherland1]

The Copernicus Program has issued the multi-ensemble winter forecast. It is very similar to last year's forecast (likely the result of La Niña). Last year's forecast and outcome are provided, along with this year's forecast.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It mostly looks like a cold and dry pattern after Wednesday as we get our first freeze by next weekend. This is one of the strongest -EPO patterns on record coming up for this time of year. Maybe we can catch a stray streamer from the Great Lakes for some flurries. EPS starting to show Greenland Blocking near the end of the month. 
 

 

This is actually better than getting snow in November which often portends a snowless or little snow winter.

We are getting into a winter pattern gradually, which might mean it lasts longer.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That pattern sure does look a bit like Dec 2010.  I saw some throw that one around as an analog in recent days...at least that first 10-15 days of that month had the vortex look over the ERN GOA but the -NAO  as well

Yes many false starts with that one.

One cautionary note however-- that year was preceded by an el nino and a rather strong one at that.

As you know la ninas after el ninos are usually very snowy.

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging    40degs.(36/44) or -6.

Month to date is   60.5[+9.8].       Should be   52.7[+3.8] by the 22nd.

Here is the GFSens. for the rest of November.      39.0[34/43] or -6.       November would end a little AN, near 48+:

Reached 63 yesterday {at 1am overnight}

Today:   44-47, wind nw., m. sunny, 36 tomorrow AM.

39* at 6am.-held for 3 hours.      40* at 9am.

highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for a few days wow

 

[MJO812]

NAO and AO looks to go negative after this historic EPO tanking

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NAO and AO looks to go negative after this historic EPO tanking

Ensembles the last 2 runs were not as robust with the warump in between, that may depend on how the MJO progresses, if its towards 7 fast enough then maybe the relaxation is muted, if its still in 6 when the EPO weakens we may see a 7-10 day period that is fairly mild.  I believe phase 7 MJO is also not exceptionally good in La Nina in late Nov/Dec but its better than 3-4-5-6

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

Where are you guys? Never ceases to amaze me the wide range here. We’ve been 28° or lower many times already this year.


.

i’m in Westchester and every day that you were 28 we were about 35. Close but no cigar. Forget the city. They have plants in bloom

[North and West]

i’m in Westchester and every day that you were 28 we were about 35. Close but no cigar. Forget the city. They have plants in bloom

Bonkers. All of our leaves are down, too. This always amazes me.

On the flip side, though we’re not Newark, it gets very toasty here on dry, sunny days… and then drops like a rock at night.


.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It mostly looks like a cold and dry pattern after Wednesday as we get our first freeze by next weekend. This is one of the strongest -EPO patterns on record coming up for this time of year. Maybe we can catch a stray streamer from the Great Lakes for some flurries. EPS starting to show Greenland Blocking near the end of the month. 
 

 

Assuming the depicted -NAO blocking in the long range is actually real (big if) that’s probably when “something” happens winter wx wise, assuming the EPO doesn’t go very positive or the PNA very negative. There have just been so many phantom -NAO blocks in the long range that never materialize over the last several winters, it’s hard to believe it, unless it actually moves forward in time and doesn’t just stay in the long range 

[George001]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Way too much -EPO suppression of the southern stream. Notice how the 0z OP Euro went back to the ensemble mean as expected. The hugger on Wednesday suppresses the SE Ridge.

I could be wrong, but Im not really buying the suppression due to how far west the western ridge is centered at looking at the h5. The Ideal location for nor’easters is centered over Montana, and this ridge is centered west of Washington. If anything wouldn't that suggest that the threat is an inland runner with rain (especially considering the minimal blocking)? If the aggressive and amplified northern stream digs and phases in, wouldn’t that prevent suppression? It looks like if something does happen it would be driven by the northern energy.

You bring up a good point about the Wednesday storm though, I wasn’t really thinking of that. We need the northern energy to delay more to give the SE ridge more time to rebuild. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming the depicted -NAO blocking in the long range is actually real (big if) that’s probably when “something” happens winter wx wise, assuming the EPO doesn’t go very positive or the PNA very negative. There have just been so many phantom -NAO blocks in the long range that never materialize over the last several winters, it’s hard to believe it, unless it actually moves forward in time and doesn’t just stay in the long range 

Yeah, December has been the toughest month of the entire year to sustain a -NAO pattern since 2011. The only time was in 2020. So we always have to wait and see if these long range -NAO forecasts get weaker the closer in time we get. 
 

 

[ForestHillWx]

41 here and surrounding stations; should get fairly cold tonight. 

[nycwinter]

a nice  long stretch of ski hats winter coats hoodies and gloves coming up..

[Stormlover74]

First wwa of the season 

 

 

[MANDA]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

First wwa of the season 

 

 

Also in effect for Sussex County NJ.  Elevation will play a big factor.

[Tatamy]

Mt. Holly issues a WWA for the Poconos and Sussex Cty in NJ.  This will be a prototypical north of Blue Mountain (PA) north and west of I80/I287 (NJ) early season event.

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Also in effect for Sussex County NJ.  Elevation will play a big factor.

Very true on the elevation factor.  MPO in the Poconos at 2000 ft is forecast to get 1-3" along with 0.1 - 0.3" of ice accum.

[lee59]

Temperature already dropping to the upper 30s here

[Tatamy]

18z GFS for Black Friday.  It will be very interesting to see how this pattern evolves.

[SnoSki14]

Ensembles looking pretty decent for December. Notice -AO trending stronger everyday

Could be a few mild days in there too. Agree with snowman that snowy pattern will have to wait until AO blocking materializes. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Looking forward to a little wintry precip tomorrow night north of 84. Forecast is for 1 inch of snow before changeover to sleet/rain. Not much but it's only mid November. Right now 31* and headed down to near 20. 

[snywx]

Currently 28/22 here.. Nice way to kick off the season with 1-2" of snow followed by some ice. Considering how cold its gonna get following this storm whatever falls may stick around for a bit. I think areas like Otisville & Greenville in NW Orange do the best.