bluewave Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Too bad none of these overamped day 7-10 OP runs have had any ensemble support. The 12z OP Euro is the latest example today. The other day it was the GFS and GEM. That’s why ensemble means are the way to go beyond the 120 hr forecast. The record -EPO looks too progressive for a big wrapped up benchmark track. But maybe even the coast can get a few mood flakes as the waves scoot by to our east as colder air gets drawn further east. Overamped OP run Ensemble mean more progressive weaker wave with maybe some mood flakes 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 8:33 PM, MJO812 said: You know it's almost winter when Snowman19 is giving out weenies. . 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 8:33 PM, MJO812 said: You know it's almost winter when Snowman19 is giving out weenies. Expand The EPS is laughing at that op run 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Record -EPO favors cold/dry most likely but the brunt of the cold is to our west and some SE ridging will keep a gradient so some storminess wouldn't surprise me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:18 PM, SnoSki14 said: Record -EPO favors cold/dry most likely but the brunt of the cold is to our west and some SE ridging will keep a gradient so some storminess wouldn't surprise me Expand When we get a legit west-based -NAO block then things will get interesting…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:27 PM, snowman19 said: When we get a legit west-based -NAO block then things will get interesting…. Expand We don't need a negative NAO for it to snow. Give me a negative epo and positive PNA anyday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:23 PM, MJO812 said: Expand I see your porn map and raise you a weenie map and so it begins. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:32 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: I see your porn map and raise you a weenie map and so it begins. Expand Getting an early start this year ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:23 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Shoot, this only has me with 5.7"................... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Freeze watch for nyc tomorrow night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Overnight, a much colder air mass began moving into the region. Now, a prolonged period of below normal temperatures lies ahead. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season tomorrow morning at LaGuardia Airport (will be the 5th latest first occurrence) and Central Park (will be the 2nd latest first occurrence). Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the week. In addition, a storm will likely bring a cold rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong (with the AO staying mainly above -1.000). Its duration remains uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -7.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.406 today. On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.721 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.857 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.8° (1.8° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 This is the most consistent location in PA., regarding a super snowstorm fantasy, I could find. Other locations only show up on the this 18Z and the previous 18Z. Not a favorable sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 1:46 AM, CIK62 said: This is the most consistent location in PA., regarding a super snowstorm fantasy, I could find. Other locations only show up on the this 18Z and the previous 18Z. Not a favorable sign. Expand Erie - Lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 41 here in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Freezing Rain potential with the Tuesday / Wednesday event off the 0z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 2:36 AM, Tatamy said: Freezing Rain potential with the Tuesday / Wednesday event off the 0z NAM Expand no thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:18 PM, SnoSki14 said: Record -EPO favors cold/dry most likely but the brunt of the cold is to our west and some SE ridging will keep a gradient so some storminess wouldn't surprise me Expand So now we are rooting for the SE Ridge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:32 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: I see your porn map and raise you a weenie map and so it begins. Expand That does look like a weenie pointed at new england as usual (or PA depending on how you look at it) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:23 PM, MJO812 said: Expand That's a huge gradient from 32 inches of snow in the weenie to 8 inches just south of the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 5:59 PM, bluewave said: LGA had their greatest snowstorm only a few weeks after their latest first freeze in January 2016. Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280 2001 03-28 (2001) 31 12-23 (2001) 32 269 1998 03-22 (1998) 31 12-22 (1998) 24 274 2021 04-02 (2021) 29 12-19 (2021) 31 260 2011 03-29 (2011) 32 12-11 (2011) 31 256 1948 04-10 (1948) 32 12-11 (1948) 32 244 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 28.2 2016-01-24 0 2 27.9 2016-01-23 0 3 25.4 2006-02-12 0 4 23.8 1996-01-08 0 5 23.3 2006-02-13 0 6 22.8 1947-12-27 0 7 22.2 1947-12-26 0 8 22.0 1983-02-12 0 Expand So did JFK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 3:16 PM, tdp146 said: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/FrostFreeze/OKX_Frost_Freeze_22_handout.pdf they were extending the dates of the frost/freeze program. Here is a map of the extended dates. The city and southern Nassau have the same dates as coastal Virginia. Expand Yes our climo is like Norfolk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 9:54 PM, bluewave said: Too bad none of these overamped day 7-10 OP runs have had any ensemble support. The 12z OP Euro is the latest example today. The other day it was the GFS and GEM. That’s why ensemble means are the way to go beyond the 120 hr forecast. The record -EPO looks too progressive for a big wrapped up benchmark track. But maybe even the coast can get a few mood flakes as the waves scoot by to our east as colder air gets drawn further east. Overamped OP run Ensemble mean more progressive weaker wave with maybe some mood flakes Expand NE already has a thread for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 36F waiting for this first freeze this year is worse than waiting for election results in America Although Belleayre did turn on the snow guns, so there is that… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and very cool today. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 48° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 54.6° Newark: 30-Year: 55.5°; 15-Year: 55.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 56.4° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 9:54 AM, LibertyBell said: NE already has a thread for it Expand Way too much -EPO suppression of the southern stream. Notice how the 0z OP Euro went back to the ensemble mean as expected. The hugger on Wednesday suppresses the SE Ridge. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 11:04 AM, the_other_guy said: 36F waiting for this first freeze this year is worse than waiting for election results in America Although Belleayre did turn on the snow guns, so there is that… Expand Likely happens for most tonight and definitely by the weekend for most urban/coastal regions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 36 here in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 12:10 PM, bluewave said: Way too much -EPO suppression of the southern stream. Notice how the 0z OP Euro went back to the ensemble mean as expected. The hugger on Wednesday suppresses the SE Ridge. Expand This is a thread the needle pattern isn't it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 11:18 AM, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and very cool today. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 48° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 54.6° Newark: 30-Year: 55.5°; 15-Year: 55.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 56.4° Expand Mid 30s for lows this morning everywhere, Don? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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